scholarly journals Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tokuta Yokohata ◽  
Go Iwahana ◽  
Toshio Sone ◽  
Kazuyuki Saito ◽  
Noriko N. Ishizaki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Alpine Ecosystems ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Freezing And Thawing ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Statistical Relationships ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Slope Displacement

AbstractPermafrost is known to occur in high mountainous areas such as the Daisetsu Mountains in Japan, which are located at the southernmost limit of the permafrost distribution in the world. In this study, areas with climatic conditions suitable for sustaining permafrost in the Daisetsu Mountains are projected using bias-corrected and downscaled climate model outputs and statistical relationships between surface air temperatures and permafrost areas. Using freezing and thawing indices, the size of the area in the Daisetsu Mountains where climatic conditions were suitable for permafrost were estimated to be approximately 150 km2 in 2010. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, this area is projected to decrease to about 30 km2 by 2050 and it is projected to disappear by around 2070. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the area is projected to decrease to approximately 20 km2 by 2100. The degradation of mountain permafrost could potentially affect the stability of trekking trails due to slope displacement, and it may also have deleterious effects on current alpine ecosystems. It is therefore important to accurately monitor changes in the mountain ecosystem environment and to implement measures to adapt to an environment that is projected to change significantly in the future.

A Predictive Model of the Impact of the Skidding System on Forest Soil in Severe Climatic Conditions

2020 ◽  
pp. 131-144
Author(s):  
S.E. Rudov ◽  
◽  
V.Ya. Shapiro ◽  
O.I. Grigoreva ◽  
I.V. Grigorev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Soil ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Soil Freezing ◽  
Class Iii ◽  
Freezing And Thawing ◽  
Metal Structures ◽  
Rapid Adjustment ◽  
Soil Freezing And Thawing ◽  
The Impact

In the Russian Federation logging operations are traditionally carried out in winter. This is due to the predominance of areas with swamped and water-logged (class III and IV) soils in the forest fund, where work of forestry equipment is difficult, and sometimes impossible in the warm season. The work of logging companies in the forests of the cryolithozone, characterized by a sharply continental climate, with severe frosts in winter, is hampered by the fact that forest machines are not recommended to operate at temperatures below –40 °C due to the high probability of breaking of metal structures and hydraulic system. At the same time, in the warm season, most of the cutting areas on cryosolic soils become difficult to pass for heavy forest machines. It turns out that the convenient period for logging in the forests of the cryolithozone is quite small. This results in the need of work in the so-called off-season period, when the air temperature becomes positive, and the thawing processes of the soil top layer begin. The same applies to the logging companies not operating in the conditions of cryosolic soils, for instance, in the Leningrad, Novgorod, Pskov, Vologda regions, etc. The observed climate warming has led to a significant reduction in the sustained period of winter logging. Frequent temperature transitions around 0 °C in winter, autumn and spring necessitate to work during the off-season too, while cutting areas thaw. In bad seasonal and climatic conditions, which primarily include off-season periods in general and permafrost in particular, it is very difficult to take into account in mathematical models features of soil freezing and thawing and their effect on the destruction nature. The article shows that the development of long-term predictive models of indicators of cyclic interaction between the skidding system and forest soil in adverse climatic conditions of off-season logging operations in order to improve their reliability requires rapid adjustment of the calculated parameters based on the actual experimental data at a given step of the cycles.

Future Extreme Climates Projection over Huang-Huai-Hai Region of China

2014 ◽  
Vol 955-959 ◽  
pp. 3887-3892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huang He Gu ◽  
Zhong Bo Yu ◽  
Ji Gan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Huai River ◽  
The Future

This study projects the future extreme climate changes over Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) region in China using a regional climate model (RegCM4). The RegCM4 performs well in “current” climate (1970-1999) simulations by compared with the available surface station data, focusing on near-surface air temperature and precipitation. Future climate changes are evaluated based on experiments driven by European-Hamburg general climate model (ECHAM5) in A1B future scenario (2070-2099). The results show that the annual temperature increase about 3.4 °C-4.2 °C and the annual precipitation increase about 5-15% in most of 3H region at the end of 21st century. The model predicts a generally less frost days, longer growing season, more hot days, no obvious change in heat wave duration index, larger maximum five-day rainfall, more heavy rain days, and larger daily rainfall intensity. The results indicate a higher risk of floods in the future warmer climate. In addition, the consecutive dry days in Huai River Basin will increase, indicating more serve drought and floods conditions in this region.

scholarly journals Regional Features of Long-Term Exposure to PM2.5 Air Quality over Asia under SSP Scenarios Based on CMIP6 Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 6817
Author(s):  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Hyunmin Sung ◽  
Sanghoon Kwon ◽  
Jisun Kim ◽  
Jaehee Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Fine Particulate Matter ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Quality Controls ◽  
Quality Guidelines

This study investigates changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration and air-quality index (AQI) in Asia using nine different Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from historical and future scenarios under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results indicated that the estimated present-day PM2.5 concentrations were comparable to satellite-derived data. Overall, the PM2.5 concentrations of the analyzed regions exceeded the WHO air-quality guidelines, particularly in East Asia and South Asia. In future SSP scenarios that consider the implementation of significant air-quality controls (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and medium air-quality controls (SSP2-4.5), the annual PM2.5 levels were predicted to substantially reduce (by 46% to around 66% of the present-day levels) in East Asia, resulting in a significant improvement in the AQI values in the mid-future. Conversely, weak air pollution controls considered in the SSP3-7.0 scenario resulted in poor AQI values in China and India. Moreover, a predicted increase in the percentage of aged populations (>65 years) in these regions, coupled with high AQI values, may increase the risk of premature deaths in the future. This study also examined the regional impact of PM2.5 mitigations on downward shortwave energy and surface air temperature. Our results revealed that, although significant air pollution controls can reduce long-term exposure to PM2.5, it may also contribute to the warming of near- and mid-future climates.

scholarly journals Changes in Frequency of Precipitation Types Associated with Surface Air Temperature over Northern Eurasia during 1936–90

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (22) ◽  
pp. 5807-5819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hengchun Ye
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Threshold Temperatures ◽  
Hydrological Cycles ◽  
Former Ussr

Abstract Potential benefits or disadvantages of increasing precipitation in high-latitude regions under a warming climate are dependent on how and in what form the precipitation occurs. Precipitation frequency and type are equally as important as quantity and intensity to understanding the seasonality of hydrological cycles and the health of the ecosystem in high-latitude regions. This study uses daily historical synoptic observation records during 1936–90 over the former USSR to reveal associations between the frequency of precipitation types (rainfall, snowfall, mixed solid and liquid, and wet days of all types) and surface air temperatures to determine potential changes in precipitation characteristics under a warming climate. Results from this particular study show that the frequency of precipitation of all types generally increases with air temperature during winter. However, both solid and liquid precipitation days predominantly decrease with air temperature during spring with a reduction in snowfall days being most significant. During autumn, snowfall days decrease while rainfall days increase resulting in overall decreases in wet days as air temperature increases. The data also reveal that, as snowfall days increase in relationship to increasing air temperatures, this increase may level out or even decrease as mean surface air temperature exceeds −8°C in winter. In spring and autumn, increasing rainfall days switch to decreasing when the mean surface air temperature goes above 6°C. The conclusion of this study is that changes in the frequency of precipitation types are highly dependent on the location’s air temperature and that threshold temperatures exist beyond which changes in an opposite direction occur.

Evaluating temperature extremes in CMIP6 simulations using statistically proper evaluation methods

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thordis Thorarinsdottir ◽  
Jana Sillmann ◽  
Marion Haugen ◽  
Nadine Gissibl ◽  
Marit Sandstad
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Near Surface

<p>Reliable projections of extremes in near-surface air temperature (SAT) by climate models become more and more important as global warming is leading to significant increases in the hottest days and decreases in coldest nights around the world with considerable impacts on various sectors, such as agriculture, health and tourism.</p><p>Climate model evaluation has traditionally been performed by comparing summary statistics that are derived from simulated model output and corresponding observed quantities using, for instance, the root mean squared error (RMSE) or mean bias as also used in the model evaluation chapter of the fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). Both RMSE and mean bias compare averages over time and/or space, ignoring the variability, or the uncertainty, in the underlying values. Particularly when interested in the evaluation of climate extremes, climate models should be evaluated by comparing the probability distribution of model output to the corresponding distribution of observed data.</p><p>To address this shortcoming, we use the integrated quadratic distance (IQD) to compare distributions of simulated indices to the corresponding distributions from a data product. The IQD is the proper divergence associated with the proper continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) as it fulfills essential decision-theoretic properties for ranking competing models and testing equality in performance, while also assessing the full distribution.</p><p>The IQD is applied to evaluate CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations of monthly maximum (TXx) and minimum near-surface air temperature (TNn) over the data-dense regions Europe and North America against both observational and reanalysis datasets. There is not a notable difference between the model generations CMIP5 and CMIP6 when the model simulations are compared against the observational dataset HadEX2. However, the CMIP6 models show a better agreement with the reanalysis ERA5 than CMIP5 models, with a few exceptions. Overall, the climate models show higher skill when compared against ERA5 than when compared against HadEX2. While the model rankings vary with region, season and index, the model evaluation is robust against changes in the grid resolution considered in the analysis.</p>

Foreign exchange earnings of the countries of the world from international trade in fruit and berry products

2021 ◽  
pp. 45-56
Author(s):  
Rafail R. Mukhametzyanov ◽  
◽  
Nikolay G. Platonovskiy ◽  
Akhmed M. Khezhev ◽  
Tatiyana V. Ostapchuk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
World Order ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The World ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
Processed Products ◽  
The Stability

In the context of the modern global financial world order, an important element of the stability of the national monetary unit of the overwhelming majority of countries in the world, especially developing countries, is foreign exchange earnings. For some countries with favorable natural and climatic conditions, the production, processing and export of agricultural products plays a significant role in the overall structure of foreign exchange earnings in the country. The constantly increasing demand from consumers for fruits, berries, nuts and their processed products allows economic entities of national fruit and berry subcomplexes to increase the volume of growing and exporting these types of products. This study analyzes the change in the volume of exports and imports of fruit and berry products in value terms for the period 2010-2019. It is revealed that some states, being the largest exporters of fruits, berries, nuts and products of their processing, occupy significant positions in the import of these types of products from abroad. Based on the author’s calculations, the top 30 countries of the world have been compiled in terms of net foreign exchange earnings from international trade in this type of product. According to this indicator, the first line with a level of $ 7.506 billion was occupied by Spain, while it increased it by $ 1.675 billion over 10 years. As for Russia, despite the counter-sanctions against the countries of the European Union and some other countries of the world, as well as the ongoing policy of import substitution, including in domestic gardening, it continues to be one of the main importers of fruits, berries, nuts and their processing products in the world. Thus, our country supports both foreign producers and other commercial structures that carry out the processes of commodity circulation of fruit and berry products, and the receipt of foreign exchange earnings in these powers.

scholarly journals <i>Brief communication</i> "A statistical validation for the cycles found in air temperature data using a Morlet wavelet-based method"

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Nicolay ◽  
G. Mabille ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
M. Erpicum
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Temperature Time Series ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Statistical Validation ◽  
Confidence Levels ◽  
Temperature Time

Abstract. Recently, new cycles, associated with periods of 30 and 43 months, respectively, have been observed by the authors in surface air temperature time series, using a wavelet-based methodology. Although many evidences attest the validity of this method applied to climatic data, no systematic study of its efficiency has been carried out. Here, we estimate confidence levels for this approach and show that the observed cycles are significant. Taking these cycles into consideration should prove helpful in increasing the accuracy of the climate model projections of climate change and weather forecast.

scholarly journals Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1111-1140 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Eby ◽  
A. J. Weaver ◽  
K. Alexander ◽  
K. Zickfeld ◽  
A. Abe-Ouchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Carbon Fluxes ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Experiments ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

scholarly journals Biogeophysical impacts of peatland forestation on regional climate changes in Finland

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 7251-7267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Gao ◽  
T. Markkanen ◽  
L. Backman ◽  
H. M. Henttonen ◽  
J.-P. Pietikäinen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Background Information ◽  
Snow Melting ◽  
Melting Period

Abstract. Land cover changes can impact the climate by influencing the surface energy and water balance. Naturally treeless or sparsely treed peatlands were extensively drained to stimulate forest growth in Finland over the second half of 20th century. The aim of this study is to investigate the biogeophysical effects of peatland forestation on regional climate in Finland. Two sets of 18-year climate simulations were done with the regional climate model REMO by using land cover data based on pre-drainage (1920s) and post-drainage (2000s) Finnish national forest inventories. In the most intensive peatland forestation area, located in the middle west of Finland, the results show a warming in April of up to 0.43 K in monthly-averaged daily mean 2 m air temperature, whereas a slight cooling from May to October of less than 0.1 K in general is found. Consequently, snow clearance days over that area are advanced up to 5 days in the mean of 15 years. No clear signal is found for precipitation. Through analysing the simulated temperature and energy balance terms, as well as snow depth over five selected subregions, a positive feedback induced by peatland forestation is found between decreased surface albedo and increased surface air temperature in the snow-melting period. Our modelled results show good qualitative agreements with the observational data. In general, decreased surface albedo in the snow-melting period and increased evapotranspiration in the growing period are the most important biogeophysical aspects induced by peatland forestation that cause changes in climate. The results from this study can be further integrally analysed with biogeochemical effects of peatland forestation to provide background information for adapting future forest management to mitigate climate warming effects. Moreover, they provide insights about the impacts of projected forestation of tundra at high latitudes due to climate change.

scholarly journals PLANHEAT’s Satellite-Derived Heating and Cooling Degrees Dataset for Energy Demand Mapping and Planning

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 2048
Author(s):  
Sismanidis ◽  
Keramitsoglou ◽  
Barberis ◽  
Dorotić ◽  
Bechtel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Near Infrared ◽  
Accuracy Assessment ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Software Tool ◽  
Base Temperature ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Infrared Imager

The urban heat island (UHI) effect influences the heating and cooling (H&C) energy demand of buildings and should be taken into account in H&C energy demand simulations. To provide information about this effect, the PLANHEAT integrated tool—which is a GIS-based, open-source software tool for selecting, simulating and comparing alternative low-carbon and economically sustainable H&C scenarios—includes a dataset of 1 × 1 km hourly heating and cooling degrees (HD and CD, respectively). HD and CD are energy demand proxies that are defined as the deviation of the outdoor surface air temperature from a base temperature, above or below which a building is assumed to need heating or cooling, respectively. PLANHEAT’s HD and CD are calculated from a dataset of gridded surface air temperatures that have been derived using satellite thermal data from Meteosat-10 Spinning Enhanced Visible and Near-Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). This article describes the method for producing this dataset and presents the results for Antwerp (Belgium), which is one of the three validation cities of PLANHEAT. The results demonstrate the spatial and temporal information of PLANHEAT’s HD and CD dataset, while the accuracy assessment reveals that they agree well with reference values retrieved from in situ surface air temperatures. This dataset is an example of application-oriented research that provides location-specific results with practical utility.

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