Layoffs and stock market performance during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from the US

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christos Floros ◽  
Maria Psillaki ◽  
Efstathios Karpouzis
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Event Date

PurposeThe authors examine the short-term stock market reaction surrounding US layoffs during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) period. The authors’ specific interest is on any changes that may be observed in US stock markets during the COVID-19 outbreak. This information will help us assess the extent to which policymakers adopted at time revenue and expenditures measures to minimize its negative impact.Design/methodology/approachThe authors study the linkage between layoffs announced by firms and stock markets in US for the COVID-19 period between March 2020 and October 2020. This period shows important economic figures; a huge number of job cuts announced by blue-chip companies listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) due to widespread economic shutdowns. The authors examine whether and to what extent stock markets in US have reacted to layoff announcements during the COVID-19 pandemic using an event-study methodology.FindingsThe study’s results show that US layoffs during the pandemic did not cause any abnormalities on the stock returns, either positive or negative. Based on the mean-adjusted volume, the authors find that layoffs increase the stocks' trading volume, especially on the event date and the day following the event. US stocks become more volatile on the days following the event. Interestingly, on the event date, the authors find that stocks get the highest abnormal volatility; however, the result is statistically insignificant.Practical implicationsThe authors suggest that layoffs announcements follow the business cycle quite closely in most industries. The study’s results have implications for investors, regulators and policymakers as they permit to examine the effectiveness of the measures adopted.Social implicationsThe study’s results show that policymakers reduced uncertainty implementing intensive measures quickly and should follow similar policy in the future pandemic and/or unexpected events.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the literature in two directions: First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge this is the first study that provides empirical evidence and assesses the extent to which a major global shock such as the COVID-19 pandemic may have altered the reaction of US stock markets to layoff announcements. Second, this is the first study on this topic that examines volume and volatility abnormalities, while the authors check the robustness of the findings with different methods to calculate abnormal returns.

scholarly journals Presidential Election Results and Stock Market Performance: Evidence From Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 117
Author(s):  
A.E. Osuala ◽  
U.A. Onoh ◽  
G.U. Nwansi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Event Date ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
Election Results

The study investigates the effect of Presidential election results on the performance of an emerging stock market using the case of the 2011 and 2015 Presidential elections in Nigeria. Adopting Event Study methodology to analyse the secondary data obtained from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) and some national dailies, the results of the study suggest that the 2011 presidential election result had negative significant impact on the performance of the stock market. On the other hand, the 2015 Presidential election result had positive but insignificant impact on the stock market as evidenced by the average and cumulative abnormal returns on the event date and one day post-event date- an indication that the result of the 2015 Presidential election was a welcomed development as leadership changed from PDP to All Progressives Congress (APC).

Corporate culture and stock returns: evidence from Indian companies

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 464-480
Author(s):  
Tariq Aziz ◽  
Valeed Ahmad Ansari ◽  
Mahfooz Alam
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Corporate Culture ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Stock Market Performance

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the stock market performance of companies featured in the survey “Best Companies to Work For” as a proxy for corporate culture. Design/methodology/approach The authors employed the portfolio formation and event study methods from finance to examine the linkage between corporate culture and future stocks returns. The lists of India’s best place to work for by Great Place to Work® Institute and Business Today (BT), India’s leading business magazine, form the primary surrogate for a great corporate culture. The authors compared the stock market performance of the culture portfolio vis-à-vis market index, in addition to using Carhart’s (1997) four-factor model. Findings A portfolio of Indian firms that featured in the “Best Companies to Work For” by Great Place to Work© Institute and BT magazine provides a higher return than the market index Sensex both on an ordinary return and on a risk-adjusted basis. The four-factor αs of the value-weighted culture portfolios are significant, implying that these portfolios have provided abnormal returns during the sample period. Moreover, the findings suggest a positive drift in the abnormal returns after inclusion in the “Best Companies to Work For” list. Research limitations/implications The results are largely in conformity with the prediction of the theory that states that corporate culture is an economic asset for a firm that increases its value. Practical implications From an investor’s point of view, the study indicates that investment in “Best Companies to Work For” is a better alternative than passive index investing. Originality/value This study fills the empirical void in the relationship between corporate culture and stock market performance in the Indian context.

scholarly journals The Relation Between Trading Volume Concentration and Stock Returns

2021 ◽  
pp. 82-89
Author(s):  
Chen-Chang Lo ◽  
Yaling Lin ◽  
Jiann-Lin Kuo ◽  
Yi Ting Wen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Gini Coefficient ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Taiwan Stock Exchange ◽  
The Gini Coefficient ◽  
Event Date ◽  
Brokerage Firms

The Taiwan Stock Exchange discloses data on daily trading volume across brokerage firms for each listed stock. Market practitioners suggest that the concentration of trading volume contains information on the trading behaviors of big players. We use the Gini Coefficient to measure the degree of concentration, upon which a trading strategy is proposed. We conduct an event study to examine whether such a strategy will yield abnormal returns. Our sample contains 375 listed companies with events identified during the sample period from February 2020 to August 2020. The empirical results show that the trading signal based on the Gini coefficient is informative and that most of the average abnormal returns after the event date are significantly positive with the cumulative average abnormal returns increasing almost monotonically up to the end day of the event window. Consistent with prior studies in which different measures of concentration are utilized, our findings provide additional evidence that the Gini Coefficient could help investors to develop profitable stock selection and market timing strategies.

scholarly journals The impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on stock market performance: evidence from Vietnam

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Le Trang Anh ◽  
Christopher Gan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Stock Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Daily Stock Returns ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study explores the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak and its following lockdown on daily stock returns in Vietnam, a fast-growing emerging market that successfully revived after the pandemic lockdown.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses panel-data regression models to evaluate the influence of the daily increase in the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases during pre-lockdown and lockdown on daily stock returns of 723 listed firms in Vietnam from 30 January to 30 May 2020.FindingsThe study confirms the adverse impact of the daily increasing number of COVID-19 cases on stock returns in Vietnam. The study also discloses that the Vietnam stock market before and during the nationwide lockdown performed in opposing ways. Though COVID-19 pre-lockdown had a significant, negative impact on Vietnam's stock returns, the lockdown period had a significant, positive influence on stock performance of the entire market and the different business sectors in Vietnam. The financial sector was hardest hit on the Vietnam stock market during the COVID-19 outbreak.Research limitations/implicationsThe study indicates investors' confidence and trust in the Vietnam government's decisions to combat COVID-19 and favorable stocks prices were the main reasons that the Vietnam stock market rebounded during and after lockdown.Originality/valueThis is the first study to examine the impact of COVID-19 during the pre-lockdown and lockdown periods on stock performance in Vietnam, a rapidly developing economy that was successful in controlling the pandemic with a rejuvenated stock market after lockdown.

Epidemics and Chinese firms' stock returns: is COVID-19 different?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Quang Thi Thieu Nguyen ◽  
Dao Le Trang Anh ◽  
Christopher Gan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Event Study Method ◽  
Economic Shock ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study investigates the Chinese stocks' returns during different epidemic periods to assess their effects on firms' market performance.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs an event study method on more than 3,000 firms listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges during periods of SARS, H5N1, H7N9 and COVID-19FindingsEpidemics' effect on firms' stock returns is persistent up to 10 days after the event dates. Although the impact varies with types and development of the disease, most firms experience a negative impact of the epidemics. Among the epidemics, COVID-19 has the greatest impact, especially when it grows into a pandemic. The epidemics' impact is uneven across industries. In addition, B-shares and stocks listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange are more negatively influenced by the epidemic than A-shares and those listed on Shenzhen Stock Exchange.Research limitations/implicationsThe results of the study contribute to the limited literature on the effects of disease outbreaks as an economic shock on firm market performance. Given the possibility of other epidemics in the future, the study provides guidance for investors in designing an appropriate investing strategy to cope with the epidemic shocks to the market.Originality/valueThe research is novel in the way it compares and assesses the economic impact of different epidemics on firms and considers their impact at different development stages.

A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slah Bahloul ◽  
Nawel Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

Stock markets' reaction to COVID-19: evidence from the six WHO regions

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anas Ali Al-Qudah ◽  
Asma Houcine
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Daily Stock Returns ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study investigates the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on daily stock returns for the six major affected WHO Regions, namely: Africa, Americas, Eastern Mediterranean, Europe, South-East Asia and Western Pacific.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses an event study method and panel-data regression models to examine the effect of the daily increase in the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases on daily stock returns from 1 March to 1 August 2020 for the leading stock market in major affected countries in the WHO regions.FindingsThe results reveal an adverse impact of the daily increasing number of COVID-19 cases on stock returns and stock markets fell quickly in response to the pandemic. The findings also suggest that negative market reaction was strong during the early stage of the outbreak between the 26th and 35th days after the initial confirmed cases. We further find that stock markets in the Western Pacific region experienced more negative abnormal returns as compared to other regions. The results also confirm that feelings of fear among investors turned out to be a mediator and a transmission channel for the effect of COVID-19 outbreak on the stock markets.Research limitations/implicationsThis study contributes to financial literature in two ways. First, we contribute to existing literature that has examined the effect of various catastrophes and crises on the stock markets Second, we contribute to the recent emerging literature that examines the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets.Practical implicationsThe study may have implications for policymakers to deal with this outbreak without triggering uncertainty in stock markets and reassure investors' confidence. The study may also be of interest to investors, managers, financial analysts by revealing how the stock markets quickly respond to outbreaks.Originality/valueThis study is the first study to examine the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the leading stock markets of the WHO regions.

Do Indian stock market sentiments impact contemporaneous returns?

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 332-346
Author(s):  
Divya Aggarwal ◽  
Pitabas Mohanty
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Sentiments ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of Indian investor sentiments on contemporaneous stock returns of Bombay Stock Exchange, National Stock Exchange and various sectoral indices in India by developing a sentiment index. Design/methodology/approach The study uses principal component analysis to develop a sentiment index as a proxy for Indian stock market sentiments over a time frame from April 1996 to January 2017. It uses an exploratory approach to identify relevant proxies in building a sentiment index using indirect market measures and macro variables of Indian and US markets. Findings The study finds that there is a significant positive correlation between the sentiment index and stock index returns. Sectors which are more dependent on institutional fund flows show a significant impact of the change in sentiments on their respective sectoral indices. Research limitations/implications The study has used data at a monthly frequency. Analysing higher frequency data can explain short-term temporal dynamics between sentiments and returns better. Further studies can be done to explore whether sentiments can be used to predict stock returns. Practical implications The results imply that one can develop profitable trading strategies by investing in sectors like metals and capital goods, which are more susceptible to generate positive returns when the sentiment index is high. Originality/value The study supplements the existing literature on the impact of investor sentiments on contemporaneous stock returns in the context of a developing market. It identifies relevant proxies of investor sentiments for the Indian stock market.

scholarly journals The dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volumes in Nepalese stock market

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-172
Author(s):  
Prem Lal Adhikari
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Dynamic Relationship

 In finance, the relationship between stock returns and trading volume has been the subject of extensive research over the past years. The main motivation for these studies is the central role that trading volume plays in the pricing of financial assets when new information comes in. As being interrelated and interdependent subjects, a study regarding the trading volume and stock returns seem to be vital. It is a well-researched area in developed markets. However, very few pieces of literature are available regarding the Nepalese stock market that explores the association between trading volume and stock return. Realizing this fact, this paper aims to examine the empirical relationship between trading volume and stock returns in the Nepalese stock market using time series data. The study sample is comprised of 49 stocks traded on the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) from mid-July 2011 to mid-July 2018. This study examines the Granger Causality relationship between stock returns and trading volume using the bivariate VAR model used by de Medeiros and Van Doornik (2008). The study found that the overall Nepalese stock market does not have a causal relationship between trading volume and return on the stock. In the case of sector-wise study, there is a unidirectional causality running from trading volume to stock returns in commercial banks and stock returns to trading volume in finance companies, hydropower companies, and insurance companies. There is no indication of any causal effect in the development bank, hotel, and other sectors. This study also finds that there is no evidence of bidirectional causality relationships in any sector of the Nepalese stock market.

Investors overconfidence behaviour at Bombay Stock Exchange

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 613-632 ◽  
Author(s):  
Venkata Narasimha Chary Mushinada ◽  
Venkata Subrahmanya Sarma Veluri
Keyword(s):  
Private Information ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Attribution Bias

PurposeThe purpose of the paper is to empirically test the overconfidence hypothesis at Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).Design/methodology/approachThe study applies bivariate vector autoregression to perform the impulse-response analysis and EGARCH models to understand whether there is self-attribution bias and overconfidence behavior among the investors.FindingsThe study shows the empirical evidence in support of overconfidence hypothesis. The results show that the overconfident investors overreact to private information and underreact to the public information. Based on EGARCH specifications, it is observed that self-attribution bias, conditioned by right forecasts, increases investors’ overconfidence and the trading volume. Finally, the analysis of the relation between return volatility and trading volume shows that the excessive trading of overconfident investors makes a contribution to the observed excessive volatility.Research limitations/implicationsThe study focused on self-attribution and overconfidence biases using monthly data. Further studies can be encouraged to test the proposed hypotheses on daily data and also other behavioral biases.Practical implicationsInsights from the study suggest that the investors should perform a post-analysis of each investment so that they become aware of past behavioral mistakes and stop continuing the same. This might help investors to minimize the negative impact of self-attribution and overconfidence on their expected utility.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the investors’ overconfidence behavior at market-level data in BSE, India.

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