El Nino spells multiple humanitarian crises for Africa
Subject Outlook for El Nino in sub-Saharan Africa. Significance The current El Nino weather system, one of the three strongest since 1950, is causing drought in some areas and flooding in others. Past instances have resulted in significant drops in agricultural production, livestock deaths, infrastructure damage and lost income. Together with likely higher incidence of disease, similar effects could trigger humanitarian crises across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Impacts Poor sanitation infrastructure in many major SSA cities will facilitate the spread of water-borne diseases such as cholera. In Southern Africa, strong institutions overseeing intra-regional water sharing will limit prospects for diplomatic disputes over water. Unusual rain and wind patterns in West Africa could curb cocoa production, creating shortages that will push up global prices. Likely lower agricultural output across SSA will compound the impact of low commodity prices on cooling GDP growth.