Does Ban on Futures trading (de)stabilise spot volatility?

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neharika Sobti
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Futures Trading ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spot Volatility ◽  
Non Parametric

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the possible consequences of ban on futures trading of agriculture commodities in India by examining three critical issues: first, the author explores whether price discovery dominance changes between futures and spot in the pre-ban and post-relaunch phase both in the long run and short run. Second, the author examines the impact of ban and relaunch of futures trading on its underlying spot volatility for five sample cases of agriculture commodities (Wheat, Sugar, Soya Refined Oil, Rubber and Chana) using both parametric and non-parametric tests. Third, the author revisits the destabilization hypothesis in the light of ban on futures trading by examining the impact of unexpected component of liquidity of futures on spot volatility. Design/methodology/approach The author uses widely adopted methodology of co-integration to examine long-run relationship between spot and futures, while the short-run relationship is investigated using vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality to test price discovery in the pre-ban and post-relaunch phases. The second objective is explored using a combination of parametric and non-parametric tests such as Welch one-way ANOVA and Kruskal–Wallis test, respectively, to gauge the impact of ban on futures trading on spot volatility along with post hoc tests to investigate pairwise comparison of spot volatility among three phases (pre-ban, ban and post-relaunch) using Dunn Test. In addition, extensive robustness test is undertaken by adopting augmented E-GARCH model to ascertain the impact of ban and relaunch of futures trading on spot volatility. The third objective is investigated using Granger causality test between spot volatility and unexpected component of liquidity of futures estimated using Hodrick and Prescott (HP) filter to re-visit the destabilization hypothesis. Findings The author found extensive evidence for the dominance of futures market in the price discovery of agriculture commodities both in the pre-ban and post-relaunch phases in India. The ban on futures trading is found to have a destabilizing impact on spot volatility as evident from the findings of Wheat, Sugar and Rubber. In addition, it is observed that spot volatility was highest during the ban phase as compared to the pre-ban and post-relaunch phases for all four commodities barring Chana. The author found that destabilisation hypothesis holds true during the pre ban phase, while weakening of destabilization hypothesis is observed in the post-relaunch phase as unexpected futures liquidity has no role in driving the spot volatility. Originality/value This study is a novel attempt to empirically examine the potential impact of ban and relaunch of futures trading of agriculture commodities on two key market quality dimensions – price discovery and spot volatility. In addition, destabilization hypothesis is revisited to investigate the impact of futures trading on spot volatility during the pre-ban and post-relaunch period.

scholarly journals Assessing the influence of exchange rate on agricultural commodity export price: evidence from Vietnamese coffee

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-309
Author(s):  
Trung Tuyen Dang ◽  
Caihong Zhang ◽  
Thi Hong Nguyen ◽  
Ngoc Trung Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Export Price ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Commodity Export ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate the influence of VND/USD exchange rate on Vietnamese coffee export price (PVN).Design/methodology/approachThe study uses cointegration test, Granger causality test and vector autoregression (VAR) model.FindingsThe results reveal that there is no co-integrating equation between two variables. It means the exchange rate does not have an effect on PVN in the long run. Furthermore, there is one Granger causality relationship between VND/USD exchange rate and PVN in the short run, but not vice versa. The study suggests that the first previous period of PVN is the most closely related variable which has the greatest impact on the variation of PVN among the selected variables, meanwhile the effect of VND/USD exchange rate on it, contrarily, is positive and very trivial.Originality/valueIn overall, the impact of VND/USD exchange rate on Vietnamese coffee export price (PVN) has been analyzed deeply in this research by applying new approaches.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

scholarly journals TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM INDIA

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 188-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye ◽  
Wee-Yeap Lau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The main objective of this study is to develop first time trade openness index and use this index to examine the link between trade openness and economic growth in case of India. This study employs a new endogenous growth model for theoretical support, auto-regressive distributive lag model and rolling window regression method in order to determine long run and short run association between trade openness and economic growth. Further granger causality test is used to determine the long run and short run causal direction. The results reveal that human capital and physical capital are positively related to economic growth in the long run. On the other hand, trade openness index negatively impacts on economic growth in the long run. The new evidence is provided by the rolling window regression results i.e. the impact of trade openness index on economic growth is not stable throughout the sample. In the short run trade openness index is positively related to economic growth. The result of granger causality test confirms the validity of trade openness-led growth and human capital-led growth hypothesis in the short run and long run.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE ON THE PERFORMANCE OF QUOTED INSURANCE FIRMS IN NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (07) ◽  
pp. 324-334
Author(s):  
Oluwaleye, Taiwo Olarinre ◽  
◽  
Kolapo, Funso Tajudeen (PhD) ◽  
Ajayi, Foluso Isaac ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Firm Performance ◽  
Capital Structure ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Life Insurance ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Evidence from the past studies revealed that capital structure has an impact on the firm performance. This research appraises the impact of capital structure on the performance of quoted life insurance companies in Nigeria from 2010 to 2019. The researchers used the panel cointegration model, autoregressive dynamic lag error correction model and pair wise granger causality test to measure the relationship among the variables. The study revealed that capital structure and firm performance has a long-run relationshipand 81% long run disequilibrium is corrected within a year. It was also apparent that there is a significant short run relationship between liquidity of life insurance and return on asset. The Granger causality outcome also shows that bidirectional causality exists between firm size (SIZE) and profitability (ROA) in the short run. We conclude that a large size of life insurance firm has more scope to make more profit in Nigeria context within the study period. The study recommended that to maximize firm’s performance managers must endeavor to obtain and maintain an optimum capital structure level among others.

The impact of macroeconomic variables on the budget deficit in Bangladesh: an econometric analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Mahbub Alam ◽  
Md. Nazmus Sadekin ◽  
Sanjoy Kumar Saha
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the impact of selected macro-economic variables like real effective exchange rate (REER), GDP, inflation (INF), the volume of trade (TR) and money supply (M2) on-budget deficit (BD) in Bangladesh over the period of 1980–2018.Design/methodology/approachBy using secondary data, the paper uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality test. Johansen’s cointegration test is used to examine the long-run relationship among the variables under study.FindingsJohansen’s cointegration test result shows that there exists a positive long-run relationship of selected macroeconomic variables (real effective exchange rate, inflation, the volume of trade and money supply) with the budget deficit, whereas GDP has a negative one. The short-run results from the VECM show that GDP, inflation and money supply have a negative relationship with the budget deficit. The Granger Causality test results reveal unidirectional causal relationships running from BD to REER; TR to BD; M2 to BD; GDP to REER; M2 to REER; INF to GDP; GDP to TR; M2 to GDP and bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and BD; TR and REER; M2 and TR.Originality/valueBangladesh has been experiencing a budget deficit since 1972 due to a decline in sources of revenue. This study contributes to the empirical debate on the causal nexus between macroeconomic variables and budget deficits by employing VECM and Granger Causality approaches.

scholarly journals The Impact of Imports and Exports Performance on the Economic Growth of Somalia

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 110
Author(s):  
Ali Abdulkadir Ali ◽  
Ali Yassin Sheikh Ali ◽  
Mohamed Saney Dalmar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Growth Strategy ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

In this paper the impact of exports and imports on the economic growth of Somalia over the period 1970-1991 was investigated. The study applied econometric methods such as Ordinary Least Squares technique. The Granger Causality and Johansen Co-integration tests were also used for analysing the long term association. By using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillip-Perron (PP) stationarity test, the variables proved to be integrated of the order one 1(1) at first difference. Johansen test of co-integration was used to determine if there is a long run association in the variables. To determine the direction of causality among the variables, both in the long and short run, the Pair-wise Granger Causality test was carried out. It was found that economic growth does not Granger Cause Export but was found hat export Granger Cause GDP. So this implies that there is unidirectional causality between exports and economic growth. Also there is bidirectional Granger Causality between import and export. The results show that economic growth in Somalia requires export-led growth strategy as well as export led import. Imports and exports are thus seen as the source of economic growth in Somalia.

scholarly journals Zakat Distribution and Growth in the Federal Territory of Malaysia

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (8) ◽  
pp. 449-456
Author(s):  
Mohammed B. Yusoff
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This research paper aims to examine the impact of zakat distribution on growth in the Federal Territory Malaysia. Specifically, an econometric study is carried out to examine the ability of zakat expenditure to affect real economic growth in the Federal Territory Malaysia by employing various econometric procedures such as the unit root tests, the cointegration tests, the vector error-correction model (VECM), and the Granger causality tests. The findings of the study suggest that zakat expenditure has a positive relationship with real GDP in the long-run. The Granger causality test indicates that zakat spending causes real economic growth with no feedback. In other words, zakat expenditure could boost GDP in the Federal Territory Malaysia both in the short-run and long-run.

Africa-China investment and growth link

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 132-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isaac Koomson-Abekah ◽  
Eugene Chinweokwu Nwaba
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate China–Africa Investment link, using over two decades of FDI’s data. During the specified periods, African economic growth path has been predominantly upward trending, despite multiple external threats. This impressive growth was partly because of the growth of FDI stock across the region. This study explores the various sources of FDI to Africa, mainly China’s FDI’s and how they influence African macroeconomic indicators, i.e. unemployment, export and import activities.Design/methodology/approachPesaran autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) is used as a framework to test the short-run and long-run relationship of indicators. Granger causality test checked the causality between growth and macroeconomic indicators.FindingsThe link between China’s FDI and African economic growth reported a negative/declining effect in both short and long run. In the long run, the effect of world FDI on growth was significant but not the in the short run. However, US FDI to Africa, China Export and Import from Africa reported an insignificant effect on growth. There was no evidence of Okun’s law, as a decrease in Africa unemployment does not increase growth. Overall, China’s FDI’s inflows to Africa are allocated to capital-intensive activities which has less labor employability. The Granger causality test reported a uni-directional link between growth and all series, except for human capital which experienced no link at all in all directions. Despite the issue of socio-infrastructure militating against growth in the region, African economy is likely to perform better, if more FDI’s are channeled into labor-intensive activities, because it has a reductive effect on unemployment.Research limitations/implicationsThe research considered point annual FDI data but not accumulated stock and is a macro-based study, i.e. regional economy.Practical implicationsThis paper bridged the literature gap in African investment performance by providing an empirical justification in understanding the inflow of FDI, especially China. This is a useful guard in policy design and implementations in the attraction of the right type of investment, so as to reduce unemployment and promote growth.Originality/valueThe authors confirm that this study has not been published elsewhere and is not under consideration in whole or in part by another journal.

Does educational progress impact energy consumption? A causality test for India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumen Rej ◽  
Barnali Nag
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Educational Advancement ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose Both energy and education have been positioned as priority objectives under the itinerary of UN development goals. Hence, it is necessary to address the implicit inter relationship between these two development goals in the context of developing nations such as India who are trying to grow in both per capita income and socio economic factors whilst struggling with the challenges of a severe energy supply constrained economy. Design/methodology/approach In the present study, the causal relationship between energy consumption per capita and education index (EI) as a proxy of educational advancement is investigated for India for 1990–2016 using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and vector error correction model. Findings The empirical results infer although energy consumption per capita and EI lack short run causality in either direction, existence of unidirectional long run causality from EI to per capita energy consumption is found for India. Further, it is observed that energy consumption per capita takes around four years to respond to unit shock in EI. Research limitations/implications The findings from this study imply that with the advancement of education, a rise in per capita energy consumption requirement can be foreseen on the demand side, and hence, India’s energy policy needs to emphasize further its sustainable energy supply goals to meet this additional demand coming from a population with better education facilities. Originality/value The authors hereby confirm that this manuscript is entirely their own original study and not submitted elsewhere.

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment, External Debt, and Balance of Payment: A Causality Analysis for Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Mahmud Mostafa
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Short Run

The purpose of this study is to analyze the causal relationship of external debt and balance of payment with foreign direct investment (FDI) in Bangladesh for the period of 1980 to 2017 through the application of Johansen Cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger Causality approach. Results of cointegration and VECM indicate a significant long-run relationship between dependent (FDI) and independent variables (external debt and balance of payment). External debt is found to have a significant negative impact on FDI in the long-run, but it is found insignificant in the short-run. In contrast, the balance of payment has a significant positive effect on FDI both in the long-run and short-run. Results of the Granger causality test reveal that there exists bidirectional short-run causality between the balance of payment and FDI; that is, both the balance of payment and FDI affect each other. But no unidirectional or bidirectional short-run causality is found between external debt and FDI. Keywords: FDI, external debt, balance of payment, cointegration, VECM, causality

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