scholarly journals Effects of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions and their lag times on the COVID-19 pandemic: Comparison of eight countries

2022 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0010101
Author(s):  
Hao Li ◽  
Luqi Wang ◽  
Mengxi Zhang ◽  
Yihan Lu ◽  
Weibing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Vaccine Dose ◽  
Lag Time ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Times ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Over Time

Many countries implemented measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic, but the effects of these measures have varied greatly. We evaluated the effects of different policies, the prevalence of dominant variants (e.g., Delta), and vaccination on the characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic in eight countries. We quantified the lag times of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We also tested whether these lag times were reasonable by analyzing changes in daily cases and the effective reproductive number (Rt)over time. Our results indicated that the response to vaccination in countries with continuous vaccination programs lagged by at least 40 days, and the lag time for a response to NPIs was at least 14 days. A rebound was most likely to occur during the 40 days after the first vaccine dose. We also found that the combination of school closure, workplace closure, restrictions on mass gatherings, and stay-at-home requirements were successful in containing the pandemic. Our results thus demonstrated that vaccination was effective, although some regions were adversely affected by new variants and low vaccination coverage. Importantly, relaxation of NPIs soon after implementation of a vaccination program may lead to a rebound.

scholarly journals The implications of lag times between nitrate leaching losses and riverine loads for water quality policy

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. W. McDowell ◽  
Z. P. Simpson ◽  
A. G. Ausseil ◽  
Z. Etheridge ◽  
R. Law
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Mean Transit Time ◽  
Lag Time ◽  
Practice Change ◽  
N Leaching ◽  
N Losses ◽  
Leaching Losses ◽  
Nitrate N ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Lag Times

AbstractUnderstanding the lag time between land management and impacts on riverine nitrate–nitrogen (N) loads is critical to understand when action to mitigate nitrate–N leaching losses from the soil profile may start improving water quality. These lags occur due to leaching of nitrate–N through the subsurface (soil and groundwater). Actions to mitigate nitrate–N losses have been mandated in New Zealand policy to start showing improvements in water quality within five years. We estimated annual rates of nitrate–N leaching and annual nitrate–N loads for 77 river catchments from 1990 to 2018. Lag times between these losses and riverine loads were determined for 34 catchments but could not be determined in other catchments because they exhibited little change in nitrate–N leaching losses or loads. Lag times varied from 1 to 12 years according to factors like catchment size (Strahler stream order and altitude) and slope. For eight catchments where additional isotope and modelling data were available, the mean transit time for surface water at baseflow to pass through the catchment was on average 2.1 years less than, and never greater than, the mean lag time for nitrate–N, inferring our lag time estimates were robust. The median lag time for nitrate–N across the 34 catchments was 4.5 years, meaning that nearly half of these catchments wouldn’t exhibit decreases in nitrate–N because of practice change within the five years outlined in policy.

scholarly journals Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bingyi Yang ◽  
Angkana T. Huang ◽  
Bernardo Garcia-Carreras ◽  
William E. Hart ◽  
Andrea Staid ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Home Visiting ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
The United States ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
County Level ◽  
Metapopulation Model ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (Reff) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median Reff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median Reff 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58–1.39) or face masks (median Reff 0.97, 95% CI 0.58–1.39). While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others.

scholarly journals Comprehensive and safe school strategy during COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanna Esposito ◽  
Nicola Cotugno ◽  
Nicola Principi
Keyword(s):  
School Attendance ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
The Real ◽  
Definitive Answer ◽  
Mild Disease ◽  
Infectious Risk ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background Although several studies have tried to evaluate the real efficacy of school closure for pandemic control over time, no definitive answer to this question has been given. Moreover, it has not been clarified whether children or teenagers could be considered a problem for SARS-CoV-2 diffusion or, on the contrary, whether parents and school workers play a greater role. The aims of this review are to discuss about children’s safety at school and the better strategies currently able to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection at school. Main aim Compared to adults, very few cases of COVID-19 were diagnosed in children, who generally suffered from an asymptomatic infection or a mild disease. Moreover, school closure is systematically associated with the development of problems involving students, teachers and parents, particularly among populations with poor resources. Although several researches have tried to evaluate the real efficacy of school closure for pandemic control over time, no definitive answer to this question has been given. Available findings seem to confirm that to ensure adequate learning and to avoid social and economic problems, schools must remain open, provided that the adults who follow children at home and at school absolutely comply with recommendations for prevention measures and that school facilities can be optimized in order to significantly reduce the spread of infection. In this regard, the universal use of face masks in addition to hand hygiene and safe distancing in schools, at least starting from the age of 6 years, seems extremely useful. Moreover, since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak the use of telemedicine to manage suspected SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals in the community has appeared to be an easy and effective measure to solve many paediatric problems and could represent a further support to schools . Conclusions We think that schools must remain open, despite COVID-19 pandemic. However, several problems strictly related to school frequency and reduction of infectious risk must be solved before school attendance can be considered completely safe. A single more in-depth guideline agreed between countries with the same school problems could be very useful in eliminating doubts and fostering the compliance of students, teachers and non-teaching school staff reducing errors and misinterpretations.

scholarly journals Rapid Spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in Southern Italy (December 2020–March 2021)

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4766
Author(s):  
Daniela Loconsole ◽  
Francesca Centrone ◽  
Caterina Morcavallo ◽  
Silvia Campanella ◽  
Anna Sallustio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Whole Genome ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Gene Target ◽  
The Third ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Over Time

Epidemiological and virological studies have revealed that SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) are emerging globally, including in Europe. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spread of B.1.1.7-lineage SARS-CoV-2 in southern Italy from December 2020–March 2021 through the detection of the S gene target failure (SGTF), which could be considered a robust proxy of VOC B.1.1.7. SGTF was assessed on 3075 samples from week 52/2020 to week 10/2021. A subset of positive samples identified in the Apulia region during the study period was subjected to whole-genome sequencing (WGS). A descriptive and statistical analysis of the demographic and clinical characteristics of cases according to SGTF status was performed. Overall, 20.2% of samples showed SGTF; 155 strains were confirmed as VOC 202012/01 by WGS. The proportion of SGTF-positive samples rapidly increased over time, reaching 69.2% in week 10/2021. SGTF-positive cases were more likely to be symptomatic and to result in hospitalization (p < 0.0001). Despite the implementation of large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as the closure of schools and local lockdowns, a rapid spread of VOC 202012/01 was observed in southern Italy. Strengthened NPIs and rapid vaccine deployment, first among priority groups and then among the general population, are crucial both to contain the spread of VOC 202012/01 and to flatten the curve of the third wave.

Inhibition of Aspergillus spp. and Penicillium spp. by Fatty Acids and Their Monoglycerides

2007 ◽  
Vol 70 (5) ◽  
pp. 1206-1212 ◽  
Author(s):  
CLELIA ALTIERI ◽  
DANIELA CARDILLO ◽  
ANTONIO BEVILACQUA ◽  
MILENA SINIGAGLIA
Keyword(s):  
Fatty Acids ◽  
Fungal Growth ◽  
Lag Time ◽  
Mold Growth ◽  
Penicillium Species ◽  
Colony Diameter ◽  
Gompertz Equation ◽  
Lag Times ◽  
Penicillium Spp ◽  
Palmitic Acids

The antifungal activity of three fatty acids (lauric, myristic, and palmitic acids) and their monoglycerides (monolaurin, monomyristic acid, and palmitin, respectively) against Aspergillus and Penicillium species in a model system was investigated. Data were modeled through a reparameterized Gompertz equation. The maximum colony diameter attained within the experimental time (30 days), the maximal radial growth rate, the lag time (i.e., the number of days before the beginning of radial fungal growth), and the minimum detection time (MDT; the number of days needed to attain 1 cm colony diameter) were evaluated. Fatty acids and their monoglycerides inhibited mold growth by increasing MDT and lag times. The effectiveness of the active compounds seemed to be strain and genus dependent. Palmitic acid was the most effective chemical against aspergilli, whereas penicilli were strongly inhibited by myristic acid. Aspergilli also were more susceptible to fatty acids than were penicilli, as indicated by the longer MDT.

scholarly journals Prior COVID-19 Infection and Antibody Response to Single Versus Double Dose mRNA SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph E. Ebinger ◽  
Justyna Fert-Bober ◽  
Ignat Printsev ◽  
Min Wu ◽  
Nancy Sun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Antibody Response ◽  
Dose Regimen ◽  
Vaccine Dose ◽  
Double Dose ◽  
Igg Antibody ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Public Health Programs ◽  
Supply Chain Logistics ◽  
Potential Efficacy ◽  
Single Versus

The double dose regimen for mRNA vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 presents both a hope and a challenge for global efforts to curb the COVID-19 pandemic. With supply chain logistics impacting the rollout of population-scale vaccination programs, increasing attention has turned to the potential efficacy of single versus double dose vaccine administration for select individuals. To this end, we examined response to Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine in a large cohort of healthcare workers including those with versus without prior COVID-19 infection. For all participants, we quantified circulating levels of SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike (S) protein IgG at baseline prior to vaccine, after vaccine dose 1, and after vaccine dose 2. We observed that the anti-S IgG antibody response following a single vaccine dose in persons who had recovered from confirmed prior COVID-19 infection was similar to the antibody response following two doses of vaccine in persons without prior infection (P>0.57). Patterns were similar for the post-vaccine symptoms experienced by infection recovered persons following their first dose compared to the symptoms experienced by infection naive persons following their second dose (P=0.66). These results support the premise that a single dose of mRNA vaccine could provoke in COVID-19 recovered individuals a level of immunity that is comparable to that seen in infection naive persons following a double dose regimen. Additional studies are needed to validate our findings, which could allow for public health programs to expand the reach of population wide vaccination efforts.

scholarly journals Lag Times as Indicators of Hydrological Mechanisms Responsible for NO3-N Flushing in a Forested Headwater Catchment

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1092
Author(s):  
Klaudija Sapač ◽  
Andrej Vidmar ◽  
Nejc Bezak ◽  
Simon Rusjan
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Forest Soils ◽  
Nutrient Dynamics ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Lag Time ◽  
Nutrient Loss ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Lag Times ◽  
N Flux

Understanding the temporal variability of the nutrient transport from catchments is essential for planning nutrient loss reduction measures related to land use and climate change. Moreover, observations and analysis of nutrient dynamics in streams draining undisturbed catchments are known to represent a reference point by which human-influenced catchments can be compared. In this paper, temporal dynamics of nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) flux are investigated on an event basis by analysing observed lag times between data series. More specifically, we studied lag times between the centres of mass of six hydrological and biogeochemical variables, namely discharge, soil moisture at three depths, NO3-N flux, and the precipitation hyetograph centre of mass. Data obtained by high-frequency measurements (20 min time step) from 29 events were analysed. Linear regression and multiple linear regression (MLR) were used to identify relationships between lag times of the above-mentioned processes. We found that discharge lag time (LAGQ) and NO3-N flux lag time (LAGN) are highly correlated indicating similar temporal response to rainfall. Moreover, relatively high correlation between LAGN and soil moisture lag times was also detected. The MLR model showed that the most descriptive variable for both LAGN and LAGQ is amount of precipitation. For LAGN, the change of the soil moisture in the upper two layers was also significant, suggesting that the lag times indicate the primarily role of the forest soils as the main source of the NO3-N flux, whereas the precipitation amount and the runoff formation through the forest soils are the main controlling mechanisms.

scholarly journals Historical and Contemporary NaCl Concentrations Affect the Duration and Distribution of Lag Times from Individual Spores of Nonproteolytic Clostridium botulinum

2007 ◽  
Vol 73 (7) ◽  
pp. 2118-2127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin D. Webb ◽  
Carmen Pin ◽  
Michael W. Peck ◽  
Sandra C. Stringer
Keyword(s):  
Growth Medium ◽  
Clostridium Botulinum ◽  
Lag Time ◽  
Lag Phase ◽  
Growth Media ◽  
Sporulation Medium ◽  
Mature Cell ◽  
Inhibitory Effects ◽  
Subsequent Growth ◽  
Lag Times

ABSTRACT In this study we determined the effect of NaCl concentration during sporulation (0 or 3.0% [wt/vol] added NaCl) and subsequent growth (0 or 2.0% [wt/vol] added NaCl) on the distributions of times associated with various stages of the lag phase of individual spores of nonproteolytic Clostridium botulinum strain Eklund 17B. The effects of NaCl on the probability of germination and the probability of subsequent growth were also determined. Spore populations exhibited considerable heterogeneity at all stages of lag phase for each condition tested. Germination time did not correlate strongly with the times for later stages in the lag phase, such as outgrowth and doubling time. Addition of NaCl to either the sporulation or growth media increased the mean times for, and variability of, all the measured stages of the lag phase (germination, emergence, time to one mature cell, and time to first doubling). There was a synergistic interaction between the inhibitory effects of NaCl in the sporulation medium and the inhibitory effects of NaCl in the subsequent growth medium on the total lag time and each of its stages. Addition of NaCl to either the sporulation medium or the growth medium reduced both the probability of germination and the probability of a germinated spore developing into a mature cell, but the interaction was not synergistic. Spores formed in medium with added NaCl were not better adapted to subsequent growth in suboptimal osmotic conditions than spores formed in medium with no added NaCl were. Knowledge of the distribution of lag times for individual spores and quantification of the biovariability within lag time distributions may provide insight into the underlying mechanisms and can be used to improve predictions of growth in food and to refine risk assessments.

scholarly journals Influence of Stress on Individual Lag Time Distributions of Listeria monocytogenes

2005 ◽  
Vol 71 (6) ◽  
pp. 2940-2948 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Guillier ◽  
P. Pardon ◽  
J.-C. Augustin
Keyword(s):  
Listeria Monocytogenes ◽  
Food Industry ◽  
Single Cells ◽  
Lag Time ◽  
Exponential Growth Phase ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Stressed Cells ◽  
Lag Times ◽  
The Times ◽  
Applied Stresses

ABSTRACT The effects of nine common food industry stresses on the times to the turbidity (T d) distribution of Listeria monocytogenes were determined. It was established that the main source of the variability of T d for stressed cells was the variability of individual lag times. The distributions of T d revealed that there was a noticeable difference in response to the stresses encountered by the L. monocytogenes cells. The applied stresses led to significant changes of the shape, the mean, and the variance of the distributions. The variance of T d of wells inoculated with single cells issued from a culture in the exponential growth phase was multiplied by at least 6 and up to 355 for wells inoculated with stressed cells. These results suggest stress-induced variability may be important in determining the reliability of predictive microbiological models.

scholarly journals Increased urbanization reduced the effectiveness of school closures on seasonal influenza epidemics in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Lei ◽  
Hangjin Jiang ◽  
Nan Zhang ◽  
Xiaoli Duan ◽  
Tao Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Influenza Surveillance ◽  
Sirs Model ◽  
Influenza Transmission ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background School closure is a common mitigation strategy during severe influenza epidemics and pandemics. However, the effectiveness of this strategy remains controversial. In this study, we aimed to explore the effectiveness of school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics in provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) with varying urbanization rates in China. Methods This study analyzed influenza surveillance data between 2010 and 2019 provided by the Chinese National Influenza Center. Taking into consideration the climate, this study included a region with 3 adjacent PLADs in Northern China and another region with 4 adjacent PLADs in Southern China. The effect of school closure on influenza transmission was evaluated by the reduction of the effective reproductive number of seasonal influenza during school winter breaks compared with that before school winter breaks. An age-structured Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model was built to model influenza transmission in different levels of urbanization. Parameters were determined using the surveillance data via robust Bayesian method. Results Between 2010 and 2019, in the less urbanized provinces: Hebei, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Anhui, during school winter breaks, the effective reproductive number of seasonal influenza epidemics reduced 14.6% [95% confidential interval (CI): 6.2–22.9%], 9.6% (95% CI: 2.5–16.6%), 7.3% (95% CI: 0.1–14.4%) and 8.2% (95% CI: 1.1–15.3%) respectively. However, in the highly urbanized cities: Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, it reduced only 5.2% (95% CI: -0.7–11.2%), 4.1% (95% CI: -0.9–9.1%) and 3.9% (95% CI: -1.6–9.4%) respectively. In China, urbanization is associated with decreased proportion of children and increased social contact. According to the SIRS model, both factors could reduce the impact of school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics, and the proportion of children in the population is thought to be the dominant influencing factor. Conclusions Effectiveness of school closure on the epidemics varies with the age structure in the population and social contact patterns. School closure should be recommended in the low urbanized regions in China in the influenza seasons. Graphical abstract

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