scholarly journals Assymmetric effect exchange rate to Indonesian agriculture subsector

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 387-400
Author(s):  
Sri Utami Lestari ◽  
Dedi Budiman Hakim ◽  
Tanti Novianti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Agricultural Export ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run

This study explores the asymmetric effect on the rupiah exchange rate on every subsector agriculture export in Indonesia during 2006-2020. The non-linear ARDL method is used in this study to analyze the asymmetric relationship between exchange rate and export. NARDL method includes short-run and long-run coefficient estimates and embraces the asymmetric effect. The previous studies generally used the linear models on the aggregated data and ignored the differences in each export of the agricultural sub-sector, then they offered ambiguous results. The latest studies have preferred to use the method of NARDL on the agricultural sector in general data. Instead of using agricultural export data for each subsector, this paper considers subsector export data of agriculture. The estimated NARDL results indicate an asymmetric effect of the rupiah exchange rate on exports of the agricultural sub-sector in the long run. In general, there is no asymmetric effect in the short run. Generally, depreciation and appreciation of the Rupiah have a negative effect on exports of the agricultural sub-sector in the long run. However, rupiah appreciation positively impacts lag 2, and depreciation caused a different effect on each sub-sector. The NARDL results suggest that positive movements have lesser impacts than those of negative movements in the exchange rate on the agriculture sector both in the short and long run

scholarly journals Does Renewable Energy Use Enhance Exchange Rate Appreciation and Stable Rate of Inflation?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abraham Deka ◽  
Behiye Cavusoglu ◽  
Sindiso Dube
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Zero Carbon

Abstract The current study is aimed at investigating the causal link among the use of renewable energy, rate of currency exchange and the rate of inflation of Brazil with the ARDL model. The findings of the ECM show that in the long-run a bidirectional causal association between exchange rate and renewable energy of Brazil exists. This shows that the rate of currency exchange causes use of renewable energy, and the use of renewable energy causes the rate of currency exchange in Brazil. Inflation rate also causes renewable energy and exchange rate of Brazil in the long-run. The rate of adjustment to equilibrium is also very low, below 50%, indicating that it will take long to adjust to long-run equilibrium. In the short-run, we ascertain that renewable energy use in Brazil has a significant negative effect on the rate of currency exchange, showing that a rise in the use of renewable energy in Brazil significantly cause the exchange rate to appreciate. Thus, on top of lowering carbon-dioxide emissions and global warming effects, renewable energy use in Brazil significantly improves the currency’s value. Therefore, the use of renewable energy should be promoted and nations should shift to using renewable energy. This move will also encourage zero carbon in the future.

Asymmetric Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade Between Pakistan and China

2020 ◽  
pp. 097215092091628
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Ahmed Usman ◽  
Sana Ullah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
Almost All

China is the largest trading partner of Pakistan. Therefore, it is very important to consider the trade flows between Pakistan and China and their response to rupee–yuan volatility. Previous research assumed that response of trade flows to measure of volatility is symmetric. In this study, our basic objective is to check whether the trade flows respond to volatility in a symmetric or asymmetric manner. Annual data over the period 1980–2018 for 14 Pakistani industries exporting to and 34 industries importing from China are analyzed. We find short-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility in almost all industries that last into long-run asymmetric effects in 40–50 per cent of industries. Non-linear models yielded more significant effects of volatility than the traditional linear models.

scholarly journals Does financial and agriculture sector development reduce unemployment rates? Evidence from Southern African countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (No. 5) ◽  
pp. 223-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gbolahan Olowu ◽  
Godwin Oluseye Olaseinde-Williams ◽  
Murad Bein
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Value Added ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Financial Depth ◽  
Short Run

The paper examines empirically the impacts of agricultural sector value added and financial development on unemployment, using yearly data from 1995–2015. Eleven developing Southern African Development Community countries were selected for the study. The empirical analysis was carried out using second-generation econometric methods. The regression results revealed that both agricultural value added and financial development are important determinants of unemployment within the region. The results specifically show that agricultural value added is negatively associated with unemployment in both the short and long-run, although the long-run effect is many times bigger than the short-run impact. The results also show that in the long-run, both financial depth and financial efficiency are negatively associated with unemployment. Interactions between agricultural value added financial development and unemployment were further tested via panel bootstrap causality tests. The causality test results revealed the existence of significant one-way causality from agricultural value added to unemployment and from financial depth to unemployment for the region. It also showed that causality varies across individual countries within the region with different conditions, indicating the heterogeneous nature of the countries that make up the regional bloc.<br />

Exchange Rate Volatility and Tourism Demand in India: Unraveling the Asymmetric Relationship

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (7) ◽  
pp. 1282-1297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandan Sharma ◽  
Debdatta Pal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

This study explores the asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on tourism demand in India from January 2006 to April 2018. Tourism demand is captured from a twin perspective—quantity and value. While quantity is represented by foreign tourist arrival in India, earnings from foreign tourists are used to represent value. The study is unique from a methodological point of view as it makes the first ever application of the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model of Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014), in the tourism demand literature to capture nonlinearity simultaneously in the short- as well as long-run. Results of our analysis show that tourism demand in India responds asymmetrically to both nominal and real exchange rate volatility. Also, the long-run effects of exchange rate uncertainty are shown to be more damaging than the short-run effects. Our findings are fairly robust to alternative specifications.

scholarly journals Tractorisation and Agricultural Development in India

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 285-292
Author(s):  
Komol Singha
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Green Revolution ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Technological innovations have had profound effect on agricultural sector in the post-Green Revolution period in India. With the inception of Green Revolution, mechanisation process, especially the application of tractor in agriculture sector had intensified. However, in 2000s, the pattern of mechanization has diversified slightly from the intensive tractorisation to other implements like, irrigation, fertilizer, harvester, energy and others. Using a time series data on tractorisation and agriculture GDP for 43 years, co-integration regression method was employed to understand short run equilibrium between the variables. Further, the Error Correction Model (ECM) result showed that elasticities of mechanization were 10.4 percent and 0.52 percent for the long-run and the short-run respectively. It implies that a positive impact of mechanization on agriculture GDP was found both in the short run and long-run.

Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the US Exports: A New Evidence From Multiple Threshold Nonlinear ARDL Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (02) ◽  
pp. 1950009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bisharat Hussain Chang ◽  
Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput ◽  
Niaz Ahmed Bhutto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Multiple Threshold

This study extends previous literature by examining the effect of extremely large to extremely small changes in the exchange rate volatility on the US exports to developing countries such as Brazil, India, Mexico, and South Africa. We use novel approach called multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL (MTNARDL) and compare its results with ARDL and nonlinear ARDL models. The ARDL model supports insignificant results, whereas standard nonlinear ARDL model indicates asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on the US exports to Mexico only. Finally, the MTNARLD model indicates that in the short run, the effect of extremely large changes in exchange rate volatility does not significantly differ from the effect of small changes in exchange rate volatility on the US exports to all sample countries. Whereas in the long run, the effect of extremely large changes in exchange rate volatility is significantly different from the effect of small changes in exchange rate volatility on the US exports to all sample countries. The findings of this novel methodology suggest different policies in the long run and short run.

scholarly journals Sectoral growth linkages of agricultural sector: Implications for food security in Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (No. 6) ◽  
pp. 278-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hafiz Asim ◽  
Muhammad Akbar
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Sectoral Growth ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Does the growth in non-agricultural sectors spill over to the agricultural sector of an economy? There is limited evidence available on the issue for the developing world, especially for Pakistan which has undergone large structural changes since its independence. This study examined the impact of sectoral growth linkages on agricultural output of Pakistan for the period of 1960–2016. We have estimated an econometric model which incorporates inter-sectoral linkages of Pakistan economy using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Our analysis revealed that the economy of Pakistan has shifted from an agricultural dominant economy to services-based economy during the past six decades. Results of VECM show that the industrial sector has a negative impact on the performance of agricultural output whereas services sector is influencing the output of agriculture sector positively in the long run. Short run results show that industrial sector is affecting the performance of agricultural output positively whereas services sector is influencing the output of agriculture sector negatively. Negative impacts of industry in the long run and services in the short run imply that agricultural sector should be given its due share in public investment and the role of middle man should be minimised at the time of sale of agricultural production in the markets.<br />

scholarly journals The Effects of Monetary Policy on Agricultural Output in Eswatini

2019 ◽  
pp. 94-99
Author(s):  
Mary S. Mashinini ◽  
Sotja G. Dlamini ◽  
Daniel V. Dlamini
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Continuous Production ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Long Run

The agricultural sector in Eswatini is viewed as an engine to foster economic growth, reduce poverty and eradicate inequality. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effects of monetary policy on the agriculture Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Eswatini using annual data for the period starting from 1980 to 2016. Using the Vector Error Correction model (VEC), the empirical results indicated that in the long run, agriculture GDP, exchange rate, interest rate, inflation, broad money supply, and agriculture credit have a negative effect on agriculture GDP in Eswatini. In the short run the study indicated that the variation in agriculture GDP is largely significant caused by the lagged agricultural GDP, interest rate, exchange rate as well as inflation. Money supply and agriculture credit contribute 0.46% and 0.55%, respectively to the variation in agricultural GDP. The study recommends that programs aimed at availing affordable credit to farmers should be prioritized to cushion the agriculture sector against adverse monetary policy shocks in the short to medium term, specifically interest rates, to ensure continuous production.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Sectoral Analysis of Non-Oil Export in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-36
Author(s):  
Lukman Oyeyinka Oyelami ◽  
Omowumi M. Ajeigbe
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Sectoral Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Export Industries ◽  
Bound Test

Abstract The paper seeks to assess the industry-based effect of exchange rate volatility on the export of non-oil sector in Nigeria. Theoretically and empirically, volatility-trade link is ambiguous. The paper employed bound test for co-integration between exchange rate volatility and exports of non-oil products. Empirically, the results show that we can accept the hypothesis of no co-integration between volatility and export of non-oil industries in most cases. Therefore, the study concludes that the exchange rate volatility can actually produce negative effect on non-oil export industries in the short-run especially the big industries (Agriculture, food and manufacturing) but this effect does not linger into the long-run and this suggests that most of these industries have been able to develop a mechanism to cope with exchange rate volatility problem in the long-run.

scholarly journals FAKTOR – FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI IMPOR BERAS INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Jumai Nijar ◽  
Tarmizi Abbas
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
Retail Price ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Retail Prices ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to determine the factors that influence rice imports in Indonesia. The data used in this study are time series in the period 1999-2017. The analytical model used in this study is the Multiple Linear Regression Model and the ARDL Model. The results showed that are that together the Inflation, Exchange Rate and Retail Prices variables had a positive and significant effect on Rice Imports. While partially Inflation and retail prices each had a positive and significant effect on the Import of Rice. There is no influence exchange rate and negative effect on Rice Imports. From the results of the ARDL model it can be seen that the long-run and short-run inflation variables had no significant and negative effect on rice imports and the long-run exchange rate variable had a significant and negative effect on rice imports. While in the short run the exchange rate variable had no effect on rice imports, while the retail price variable in the short and long run had a significant and positive effect on rice imports in Indonesia. 

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