scholarly journals The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed A. Daw
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

Background: Since the Arab uprising in 2011, Libya, Syria and Yemen have gone through major internal armed conflicts. This resulted in large numbers of deaths, injuries, and population displacements, with collapse of the healthcare systems. Furthermore, the situation was complicated by the emergence of COVID-19 as a global pandemic, which made the populations of these countries struggle under unusual conditions to deal with both the pandemic and the ongoing wars. This study aimed to determine the impact of the armed conflicts on the epidemiology of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) within these war-torn countries and highlight the strategies needed to combat the spread of the pandemic and its consequences.Methods: Official and public data concerning the dynamics of the armed conflicts and the spread of SARS-COV-2 in Libya, Syria and Yemen were collected from all available sources, starting from the emergence of COVID-19 in each country until the end of December 2020. Datasets were analyzed by a set of statistical techniques and the weekly resolved data were used to probe the link between the intensity levels of the conflict and the prevalence of COVID-19.Results: The data indicated that there was an increase in the intensity of the violence at an early stage from March to August 2020, when it approximately doubled in the three countries, particularly in Libya. During that period, few cases of COVID-19 were reported, ranging from 5 to 53 cases/day. From September to December 2020, a significant decline in the intensity of the armed conflicts was accompanied by steep upsurges in the rate of COVID-19 cases, which reached up to 500 cases/day. The accumulative cases vary from one country to another during the armed conflict. The highest cumulative number of cases were reported in Libya, Syria and Yemen.Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that the armed conflict provided an opportunity for SARS-CoV-2 to spread. The early weeks of the pandemic coincided with the most intense period of the armed conflicts, and few cases were officially reported. This indicates undercounting and hidden spread during the early stage of the pandemic. The pandemic then spread dramatically as the armed conflict declined, reaching its greatest spread by December 2020. Full-blown transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in these countries is expected. Therefore, urgent national and international strategies should be implemented to combat the pandemic and its consequences.

scholarly journals The impact of armed conflict on the epidemiological situation of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Libya, Syria, and Yemen

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed A Daw
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Significant Decline ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
International Strategies

BackgroundSince the Arab uprising 2011, Libya, Syria, and Yemen have gone through a major armed conflict. This resulted in a high rate of mortality, injury, and population displacement with a collapse of the health care system. Furthermore, it was complicated by the emergence of, COVID-19 as a global pandemic which made the population of these countries strive under unusual conditions to tackle both the pandemic and the ongoing wars. The objectives of this study were to determine the impacts and influence of armed conflicts on the epidemiology of Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) within these war-torn countries and outline the needed strategies to combat the spread of the pandemic and its upcoming consequences.MethodsThe official and public data regarding the dynamics of armed conflict and the spread, of SARS-COV-19 in Libya, Syria, and Yemen were collected from all available sources. Starting from the early emergence of the COVID-19 in each country until the end of December 2020. Datasets were analyzed through a set of statistical techniques and the weekly resolved data were used to probe the link between the intensity levels of the armed conflict and the spread of the pandemic.ResultsData indicated that there is an increase in the intensity of violence levels at an early stage from March to August reached up to two folds in the three countries particularly in Libya. In this violent period, few cases of COVID-19 were reported ranging from 5-53 cases/day. From September to December, a significant decline in the level of the armed conflict was accompanied by steep upsurges in the number of reported COVID-19 cases reached up to 500 cases/day. The highest accumulative cases of COVID-19 were reported in Libya, Syria, and Yemen respectively.ConclusionsOur analysis demonstrates that the armed conflict has provided an opportunity for SARS-COV-19 to spread. At the early weeks of the pandemic that coincided with high levels of the armed conflict few cases were officially reported indicating a vast undercount, which may suggest a hidden mitigating spread at an early stage. Then the pandemic increased immensely as the armed conflict decline to reach the highest by December. A full-blown transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in these countries is expected. Therefore, urgent national and international strategies should be implemented to combat the pandemic and its upcoming consequences.

scholarly journals The impact of armed conflict on the epidemiological situation of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Libya, Syria, and Yemen

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Ali Daw
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Significant Decline ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
International Strategies

Abstract Background: Since the Arab uprising 2011, Libya, Syria, and Yemen have gone through a major armed conflict. This resulted in a high rate of mortality, injury, and population displacement with a collapse of the health care system. Furthermore, it was complicated by the emergence of, COVID-19 as a global pandemic which made the population of these countries strive under unusual conditions to tackle both the pandemic and the ongoing wars. The objectives of this study were to determine the impacts and influence of armed conflicts on the epidemiology of Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) within these war-torn countries and outline the needed strategies to combat the spread of the pandemic and its upcoming consequences. Methods: The official and public data regarding the dynamics of armed conflict and the spread, of SARS-COV-19 in Libya, Syria, and Yemen were collected from all available sources. Starting from the early emergence of the COVID-19 in each country until the end of December 2020. Datasets were analyzed through a set of statistical techniques and the weekly resolved data were used to probe the link between the intensity levels of the armed conflict and the spread of the pandemic.Results; Data indicated that there is an increase in the intensity of violence levels at an early stage from March to August reached up to two folds in the three countries particularly in Libya. In this violent period, few cases of COVID-19 were reported ranging from 5-53 cases/day. From September to December, a significant decline in the level of the armed conflict was accompanied by steep upsurges in the number of reported COVID-19 cases reached up to 500 cases/day. The highest accumulative cases of COVID-19 were reported in Libya, Syria, and Yemen respectively.Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that the armed conflict has provided an opportunity for SARS-COV-19 to spread. At the early weeks of the pandemic that coincided with high levels of the armed conflict few cases were officially reported indicating a vast undercount, which may suggest a hidden mitigating spread at an early stage. Then the pandemic increased immensely as the armed conflict decline to reach the highest by December. A full-blown transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in these countries is expected. Therefore, urgent national and international strategies should be implemented to combat the pandemic and its upcoming consequences.

scholarly journals Who Should Get Vaccinated First? An effective Network Information-driven Priority Vaccination Strategy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dong Liu ◽  
Chi Kong Tse ◽  
Rosa H. M. Chan ◽  
Choujun Zhan
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Network Information ◽  
Network Properties ◽  
Effective Network ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Approval of emergency use of the Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines in many countries has brought hope to ending the COVID-19 pandemic sooner. Considering the limited vaccine supply in the early stage of COVID-19 vaccination programs in most countries, a highly relevant question to ask is: who should get vaccinated first? In this article we propose a network information- driven vaccination strategy where a small number of people in a network (population) are categorized, according to a few key network properties, into priority groups. Using a network-based SEIR model for simulating the pandemic progression, the network information-driven vaccination strategy is compared with a random vaccination strategy. Results for both large-scale synthesized networks and real social networks have demonstrated that the network information-driven vaccination strategy can significantly reduce the cumulative number of infected individuals and lead to a more rapid containment of the pandemic. The results provide insight for policymakers in designing an effective early-stage vaccination plan.

scholarly journals Modelling the Potential Impact of Social Distancing on the COVID-19 Epidemic in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
F. Nyabadza ◽  
F. Chirove ◽  
C. W. Chukwu ◽  
M. V. Visaya
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Social ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Policy Direction ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to be a global health problem whose impact has been significantly felt in South Africa. With the global spread increasing and infecting millions, containment efforts by countries have largely focused on lockdowns and social distancing to minimise contact between persons. Social distancing has been touted as the best form of response in managing a rapid increase in the number of infected cases. In this paper, we present a deterministic model to describe the impact of social distancing on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in South Africa. The model is fitted to data from March 5 to April 13, 2020, on the cumulative number of infected cases, and a scenario analysis on different levels of social distancing is presented. The model shows that with the levels of social distancing under the initial lockdown level between March 26 and April 13, 2020, there would be a projected continued rise in the number of infected cases. The model also looks at the impact of relaxing the social distancing measures after the initial announcement of the lockdown. It is shown that relaxation of social distancing by 2% can result in a 23% rise in the number of cumulative cases whilst an increase in the level of social distancing by 2% would reduce the number of cumulative cases by about 18%. The model results accurately predicted the number of cases after the initial lockdown level was relaxed towards the end of April 2020. These results have implications on the management and policy direction in the early phase of the epidemic.

scholarly journals The impact of digitization on economy in the context of the Coronavirus pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 01018
Author(s):  
Crina Ionescu ◽  
Mihaela Iordache ◽  
Emilia Țițan
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Research ◽  
National Level ◽  
Value Added ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The Face ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

Research background: As COVID-19 is posing unprecedented challenges, the governments as well as the individuals have to adapt to the shift towards a new lifestyle. The preventing measures against the spread of the novel coronavirus has important consequences on economy sectors both at global and national level. In this regard, it is the right time to accelerate the development of the digital tools and technologies that can help neutralize or at least mitigate the negative effects of the COVID-19. Purpose of the article: Therefore, the aim of this paper is to evaluate the current situation of digitization, focusing on the main transformations in recent months. Methods: Throughout the paper, there can be distinguished both qualitative and quantitative approach. The methods used include a secondary research from official information and primary quantitative research obtained from a conducted survey that explains the importance and the impact of digitization on economy in the face of a global pandemic. Findings & Value added: The article highlights the impact of digitization on the economy by comparing the findings from Romanian economy with other EU countries. It is noted that in areas where the digitization was more developed or where the adaptation to the new conditions imposed by the crisis generated by COVID-19 has been faster, the impact was significantly lower as well.

scholarly journals Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Adult Mental Health

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (COVID19-S4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Imran Ijaz Haider ◽  
Farah Tiwana ◽  
Sania Mumtaz Tahir
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Creative Commons ◽  
Adult Mental Health ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The Status ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Open Access Article

The outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in December 2019 has progressed to the status of a global pandemic, with countries across the seven continents adversely affected and the number of human cases exceeding two million. With no available vaccine, the treatment is primarily symptomatic for those affected and preventative for those at risk. Most countries have taken action to curtail the spread of COVID-19 through measures such as lockdowns, social distancing and voluntary self-isolation. Whilst necessary, such measures and the disease itself, may have an adverse impact on mental health. In view of research from previous pandemic crises, it is known that such situations are likely to increase stress levels and have negative psychiatric effects. The impact is likely to be felt by the general public, sufferers of COVID-19, their families and friends, persons with pre-existing mental health conditions and healthcare workers. doi: https://doi.org/10.12669/pjms.36.COVID19-S4.2756 How to cite this:Haider II, Tiwana F, Tahir SM. Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Adult Mental Health. Pak J Med Sci. 2020;36(COVID19-S4):---------. doi: https://doi.org/10.12669/pjms.36.COVID19-S4.2756 This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

scholarly journals Modelling the potential impact of social distancing on the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Nyabadza ◽  
F. Chirove ◽  
W. Chukwu ◽  
M.V. Visaya
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Social ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Policy Direction ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to be a global health problem whose impact has been significantly felt in South Africa. Social distancing has been touted as the best form of response in managing a rapid increase in the number of infected cases. In this paper, we present a deterministic model to model the impact of social distancing on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in South Africa. The model is fitted to the currently available data on the cumulative number of infected cases and a scenario analysis on different levels of social distancing are presented. The results show a continued rise in the number of cases in the lock down period with the current levels of social distancing albeit at a lower rate. The model shows that the number of cases will rise to above 4000 cases by the end of the lockdown. The model also looks at the impact of relaxing the social distancing measures after the initial announcement of the lock down measures. A relaxation of the social distancing by 2% can result in a 23% rise in the number of cumulative cases while on the other hand increasing the levels of social distancing by 2% would reduce the number of cumulative cases by about 18%. These results have implications on the management and policy direction in the early phases of the epidemic.

scholarly journals Artemether, Artesunate, Arteannuin B, Echinatin, Licochalcone B and Andrographolide Effectively Inhibit SARS-CoV-2 and Related Viruses In Vitro

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunjia Hu ◽  
Meiqin Liu ◽  
Hongbo Qin ◽  
Haofeng Lin ◽  
Xiaoping An ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chinese Medicine ◽  
Traditional Chinese Medicine ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Clinical Applications ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Compound Library ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

Since the first reported case caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan, COVID-19 has caused serious deaths and an ongoing global pandemic, and it is still raging in more than 200 countries and regions around the world and many new variants have appeared in the process of continuous transmission. In the early stage of the epidemic prevention and control and clinical treatment, traditional Chinese medicine played a huge role in China. Here, we screened out six monomer compounds, including artemether, artesunate, arteannuin B, echinatin, licochalcone B and andrographolide, with excellent anti-SARS-CoV-2 and anti-GX_P2V activity from Anti-COVID-19 Traditional Chinese Medicine Compound Library containing 389 monomer compounds extracted from traditional Chinese medicine prescriptions “three formulas and three drugs”. Our discovery preliminary proved the stage of action of those compounds against SARS-CoV-2 and provided inspiration for further research and clinical applications.

scholarly journals Clinical utility of cardiac troponin measurement in COVID-19 infection

2020 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 202-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
David C Gaze
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Troponin ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Mental Wellbeing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Treatment Regimens ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 causes the disease COVID-19, a severe acute respiratory syndrome. COVID-19 is now a global pandemic and public health emergency due to rapid human-to-human transmission. The impact is far-reaching, with enforced social distancing and isolation, detrimental effects on individual physical activity and mental wellbeing, education in the young and economic impact to business. Whilst most COVID-19 patients demonstrate mild-to-moderate symptoms, those with severe disease progression are at a higher risk of mortality. As more is learnt about this novel disease, it is becoming evident that comorbid cardiovascular disease is associated with a greater severity and increased mortality. Many patients positive for COVID-19 demonstrate increased concentrations of cardiac troponin, creating confusion in clinical interpretation. While myocardial infarction is associated with acute infectious respiratory disease, the majority of COVID-19 patients demonstrate stable cTn rather than the dynamically changing values indicative of an acute coronary syndrome. Although full understanding of the mechanism of cTn release in COVID-19 is currently lacking, this mini-review assesses the limited published literature with a view to offering insight to pathophysiological mechanisms and reported treatment regimens.

scholarly journals Who should get vaccinated first? An effective network information-driven priority vaccination strategy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dong Liu ◽  
Chi K. Tse ◽  
Rosa Ho Man Chan ◽  
Choujun Zhan
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Network Information ◽  
Network Properties ◽  
Effective Network ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Approval of emergency use of the Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines in many countries has brought hope to ending the COVID-19 pandemic sooner. Considering the limited vaccine supply in the early stage of COVID-19 vaccination programs in most countries, a highly relevant question to ask is: who should get vaccinated first? In this article we propose a network information-driven vaccination strategy where a small number of people in a network (population) are categorized, according to a few key network properties, into priority groups. Using a network-based SEIR model for simulating the pandemic progression, the network information-driven vaccination strategy is compared with a random vaccination strategy. Results for both large-scale synthesized networks and real social networks have demonstrated that the network information-driven vaccination strategy can significantly reduce the cumulative number of infected individuals and lead to a more rapid containment of the pandemic. The results provide insight for policymakers in designing an effective early-stage vaccination plan.

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