scholarly journals Skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat and advance dates in a dynamical forecast system

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (24) ◽  
pp. 12,457-12,465 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Sigmond ◽  
M. C. Reader ◽  
G. M. Flato ◽  
W. J. Merryfield ◽  
A. Tivy
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat

scholarly journals Limitations of a coupled regional climate model in the reproduction of the observed Arctic sea-ice retreat

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 1269-1306 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Dorn ◽  
K. Dethloff ◽  
A. Rinke
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Melting Period ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat ◽  
Model Variability

Abstract. The effects of internal model variability on the simulation of Arctic sea-ice extent and volume have been examined with the aid of a seven-member ensemble with a coupled regional climate model for the period 1948–2008. Beyond general weaknesses related to insufficient representation of feedback processes, it is found that the model's ability to reproduce observed summer sea-ice retreat depends mainly on two factors: the correct simulation of the atmospheric circulation during the summer months and the sea-ice volume at the beginning of the melting period. Since internal model variability shows its maximum during the summer months, the ability to reproduce the observed atmospheric summer circulation is limited. In addition, the atmospheric circulation during summer also significantly affects the sea-ice volume over the years, leading to a limited ability to start with reasonable sea-ice volume into the melting period. Furthermore, the sea-ice volume pathway shows notable decadal variability which amplitude varies among the ensemble members. The scatter is particularly large in periods when the ice volume increases, indicating limited skill in reproducing high-ice years.

scholarly journals The 2007 Bering Strait oceanic heat flux and anomalous Arctic sea-ice retreat

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca A. Woodgate ◽  
Tom Weingartner ◽  
Ron Lindsay
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Bering Strait ◽  
Oceanic Heat Flux ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat

scholarly journals Reexamination of Fram Strait sea ice export and its role in recently accelerated Arctic sea ice retreat

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1823-1841 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianfen Wei ◽  
Xiangdong Zhang ◽  
Zhaomin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Fram Strait ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat

scholarly journals Faster Arctic Sea Ice Retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to Volcanoes

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 9179-9188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica Rosenblum ◽  
Ian Eisenman
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
Global Mean Surface Temperature ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this trend, typically simulating a slower rate of sea ice retreat than has been observed. However, this bias has been widely noted to have decreased in models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) compared with the previous generation of models (CMIP3). Here simulations are examined from both CMIP3 and CMIP5. It is found that simulated historical sea ice trends are influenced by volcanic forcing, which was included in all of the CMIP5 models but in only about half of the CMIP3 models. The volcanic forcing causes temporary simulated cooling in the 1980s and 1990s, which contributes to raising the simulated 1979–2013 global-mean surface temperature trends to values substantially larger than observed. It is shown that this warming bias is accompanied by an enhanced rate of Arctic sea ice retreat and hence a simulated sea ice trend that is closer to the observed value, which is consistent with previous findings of an approximately linear relationship between sea ice extent and global-mean surface temperature. Both generations of climate models are found to simulate Arctic sea ice that is substantially less sensitive to global warming than has been observed. The results imply that much of the difference in Arctic sea ice trends between CMIP3 and CMIP5 occurred because of the inclusion of volcanic forcing, rather than improved sea ice physics or model resolution.

The impact of an intense summer cyclone on 2012 Arctic sea ice retreat

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 720-726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinlun Zhang ◽  
Ron Lindsay ◽  
Axel Schweiger ◽  
Michael Steele
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat ◽  
The Impact
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