Development of a Scenario Analysis Method for the Analysis of Complex Changes

2004 ◽  
pp. 1790-1795
Author(s):  
Knut Øien ◽  
Lars Bodsberg ◽  
Stig Ole Johnsen ◽  
Trygve Steiro ◽  
John Monsen
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Analysis Method

ADAPTATION OF THE METHOD OF ANALYSIS OF HIERARCHIES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONDUCTING SCENARIOUS ANALYSIS OF DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS OF ENTERPRISES IN THE GAS SPHERE

2021 ◽  
pp. 43-48
Author(s):  
В.В. Ухлова ◽  
Г.Н. Мартыненко ◽  
В.И. Лукьяненко
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Project Evaluation ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Hierarchy Analysis

В работе ставится задача адаптации алгоритма метода анализа иерархии для возможности его применения в сценарном анализе проектов развития газового хозяйства г. Воронежа. Одна из задач работы - формирование модели оценки проектов газовой сферы. В качестве решения предложены модель оценки проектов и адаптированный алгоритм. The paper poses the problem of adapting the algorithm of the hierarchy analysis method for the possibility of its application in the scenario analysis of projects for the development of the gas economy in Voronezh. One of the tasks of the work is to form a model for evaluating gas projects. As a solution, a project evaluation model and an adapted algorithm are proposed

Study on Scenario Analysis Method Based Safety Pre-Warming of Large Construction Engineering

2012 ◽  
Vol 594-597 ◽  
pp. 3045-3048
Author(s):  
Chun Guang Chang ◽  
Zhao Nan Jia ◽  
Ya Chen Liu ◽  
Lan Luan
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Construction Engineering ◽  
Testing Sample ◽  
Evaluating Method

For large construction engineering, to perform safety pre-warming more efficiently, scenario analysis method (SAM) is studied for safety pre-warming of large construction engineering (SPLCE). Implement flow framework of SAM is established, the key cycles of SAM are discussed. To validate the validity of SAM for SPLCE, some practical instances of SPLCE are abstracted so as to generated application and testing sample. Comparing with whole index evaluating method (WIEM), under the condition of considering only limited key driven forces and some normal indexes, the result by SAM are almost the same with that by WIEM. SAM improves the efficiency of SPLCE, and it is fit for solving complex predicting, analyzing and evaluating problems such as SPLCE.

Scenario Analysis of the Establishment of Strategic Goals of Vocational Education

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-50
Author(s):  
Сергей Рыжиков ◽  
Sergey Ryzhikov
Keyword(s):  
Vocational Education ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Professional Education ◽  
Potential Outcomes ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Strategic Uncertainty ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Strategic Actions ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Strategic Goals

In professional education, in recent years, tools of strategic management have become widely used. It is possible to increase the objectivity of strategic decisions and goals, using the methods of scenario analysis. Setting goals for diff erent developments helps to reduce strategic uncertainty and increase the opportunity for the implementation of the scenario. The process of developing scenarios leads to a higher preparedness of the leadership for this or that turn of events. The scenario analysis method has an exceptional ability to describe a number of possibilities and to detail them, which will allow studying future events directly aff ecting the organization. Scenario analysis has the listed advantages of identifying factors that contribute to the study of the potential outcomes of a strategy, allowing foreseeing and evaluating the results of strategic actions under all assumed conditions.

Development Prospect of Chinese Photovoltaic Industry with Scenario Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 672-674 ◽  
pp. 38-43
Author(s):  
Lei Pan ◽  
Li Xian Xing
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Development Trend ◽  
Development Prospect ◽  
Situational Analysis ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Market Policy ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Single Field ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Development Trend

Currently most researches on photovoltaic are for a single field such as market, policy and technology. This paper with scenario analysis method, considers the impact of various factors to build a variety of possible development scenarios. It forecasts the development trend of Chinese photovoltaic industry with situational analysis. And it raises suggestions of resolution for the different scenarios.

A Parallel Scenario Processing Algorithm in Environmental Decision Support Systems

2014 ◽  
Vol 962-965 ◽  
pp. 2735-2740
Author(s):  
Jian Hui Zhao ◽  
Ming Yu Wang ◽  
Zhi Yu Li ◽  
Ji Ke Chang ◽  
Qian Qian Hu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Message Passing ◽  
Message Passing Interface ◽  
Planning Problem ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Energy And Environment ◽  
Restoration Planning ◽  
Environmental Decision Making ◽  
Environmental Decision

The scenario analysis method is used widespread in environmental management fields. Massive scenarios used in the applications lead to huge computing workloads and time-consuming. A parallel computing algorithm based on the Message Passing Interface (MPI) standard was proposed to enhance the computing performance of scenario generating and calculating. By taking a river restoration planning problem as a case study, the proposed algorithm was applied in a decision support system and tested on a multi-core workstation. Experimental results show that when performed on a quad-core workstation, the algorithm reduced the execution time to a quarter of the former, with a stable speedup factor of 3.8 at different amounts of scenarios. It is indicated that the proposed algorithm is practical in environmental decision-making procedure, with special reference to the general scenario analysis method and other similar applications in the fields of energy and environment.

scholarly journals Operational Scenario Analysis Method for Civil Aircraft Based on Requirement Capture

2021 ◽  
Vol 1102 (1) ◽  
pp. 012005
Author(s):  
He Yuwei ◽  
Sun Yuchen ◽  
Zhang Xinai ◽  
Dai Ximei ◽  
Chen Dongsheng
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Civil Aircraft

The Impacts of Intercity Railway Project on Regional Development of Northwest China Using Scenario Analysis Method: An Example of Gansu Province

2012 ◽  
Vol 204-208 ◽  
pp. 1894-1901
Author(s):  
Liang Gong ◽  
Xiao Dong Zhang ◽  
Wei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Gansu Province ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Traffic Demand ◽  
The Future ◽  
Intercity Railway ◽  
The Right

The planning and argumentation of two intercity railway (IR) projects (Lanzhou-Zhongchuan, Xi’an North Passenger Station-airport) in Northwest China have attracted more and more attention by Chinese Central Government, local governments in Northwest China and some research organizations recently. In order to explore and find out the right way of IR development in Northwest China, we must combine with characteristics and uniqueness of Northwest Provinces, research the question more comprehensively. This paper aims at estimating the strategic impacts of IR construction on regional economy, society and environment in the future systematically, especially on the development of economy. So we choose Lanzhou-Zhongchuan IR as an instance, research this problem based on previous project experiences on it and actual dates provided from No.1 Survey & Design Institute of the Ministry of Railway (MOR). By introducing Scenario analysis method, this paper systematically enumerates and concretely analyzes the opponent viewpoints combining with the decision-making tendency of saving cost, protecting environment, promoting social and economic harmony in transportation planning. And then we make certain what are the critical conflicts in value judgment, select and determine the right construction scheme of the IR from three interactive perspective scenarios. The key technical difficulties and breakthroughs of our research are expressed, such as determination of necessity factors’ weight, forecasting traffic demand of the IR, regional economic impact of the IR and so on. It is expected that scenario analysis method would be helpful for decision-making of IR constructions in the future. And we hope to report further on this in subsequent papers.

scholarly journals Scenario Analysis–Based Decision and Coordination in Supply Chain Management with Production and Transportation Scheduling

Symmetry ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Jiang ◽  
Xiaoye Zhou ◽  
Qi Xu
Keyword(s):  
Waiting Time ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Rail Transportation ◽  
Delivery Time ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Coordination Model ◽  
Earliness And Tardiness ◽  
Transportation Scheduling ◽  
Better Than

The production and rail transportation coordinating problem aims to determine a pre-operational timetable for a set of orders. The orders need to be manufactured on a dedicated production line and be delivered to their destination by the pre-planned trains considering traveling routes and time. The connecting trains are an important and even unique chance for orders to reach their final destinations, and earliness and tardiness penalties in the connection and delivery process are closely related to the symmetry and harmony between production procedure decision and train-allocated choice. A scenario analysis method is adopted to reveal the relationships between production collection connecting time (PCCT) and production collection waiting time (PCWT) in the production process. In the delivery process, the relationships between production delivery connecting time (PDCT) and production delivery waiting time (PDWT) are mainly considered. An integrated scheduling coordination model is established to maximize the production connecting time (PCT) and production delivery time (PDT). The GA genetic algorithm is employed to solve this problem. The numerical results show that the coordinated schedule in our method can significantly reduce the number of missed connections when compared with considering delivery timeliness only through a delivery time window. Additionally, it is revealed that the quantitative performances of the delivery timeliness improved by the connecting quality (PCT) are much better than those from the view of the delivery time window (PDT).

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