Climate prediction of dust weather frequency over northern China based on sea-ice cover and vegetation variability

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 687-705 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liuqing Ji ◽  
Ke Fan
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Dust Weather

Assessment of decadal prediction skills and sensitivity to sea-ice thickness initialization in the Arctic when seasonal ice becomes dominant in the Arctic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tian Tian ◽  
Shuting Yang ◽  
Pasha Karami ◽  
François Massonnet ◽  
Tim Kruschke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Added Value ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Decadal Prediction ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness

<p>The Arctic has lost more than 50% multiyear sea ice (MYI) area during 1999-2017. Observation analysis suggests that if the decline of the MYI coverage continues, changes in the Arctic ice cover (i.e. area and volume) will be more controlled by seasonal ice than the effect of global warming. To investigate how large and where the source of Arctic prediction skill is given a large losses of thick MYI during the last two decades, we explore the decadal prediction skills and sensitivity to sea ice thickness (SIT) initialization from the EC-Earth3 Climate Prediction System with Anomaly Initialization (EC-Earth3-CPSAI). Three sets of ensemble hind-cast experiments following the protocol for the CMIP6 Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) are carried out in which the predictions start from: 1) a baseline system with ocean only initialization; 2) with ocean and sea ice concentration (SIC) initialization; 3) with ocean, SIC and SIT initialization. The hind-cast experiments are initialized and validated based on the ERA-Interim-reanalysis for the atmosphere and ORAS5 for ocean and sea-ice, with a focus period 1997-2016. All initialized experiments show better agreement with ORAS5 than the CMIP6 historical run (i.e. the Free run) for the first winter sea ice forecast. The SIT initialized experiments show the best skill in predicting SIT (or volume) and the added value by greatly reducing errors of near surface air temperature over the Greenland and its surrounding waters. In the Central Arctic, the Beaufort and East Siberian Seas, there are only minor differences in prediction skills on seasonal to decadal time scales between the ocean-only initialized and the SIT initialized experiments, indicating that the source of predictability in these regions are mainly from the ocean; while the ocean-only initialization degrades skill with larger RMSE than the Free run, e.g. during the ice-freezing season in the GIN and Barents Seas, or at  the summer minimum in the Kara Sea, the added value from the SIT initialized experiment is present, and it may have long-term effect (>4 years) probably associated with sea-ice recirculation. In all cases, the improvement from the ocean-only initialization to also including SIC initialization is found negligible, even somehow degrading the skills. This highlights the important use of SIT in predicting changes in the Arctic sea ice cover at various time scales during the study period. Therefore, the sea-ice initialization with constraint on SIT is recommended as the most effective initialization strategy in our EC-Earth3-CPSAI for present climate prediction from seasonal to decadal time scales.</p>

Seasonal variations in the properties and structural composition of sea ice and snow cover in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas, Antarctica

1997 ◽  
Vol 43 (143) ◽  
pp. 138-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. O. Jeffries ◽  
K. Morris ◽  
W.F. Weeks ◽  
A. P. Worby
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Isotopic Composition ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Ice Formation ◽  
Frazil Ice ◽  
Core Sets

AbstractSixty-three ice cores were collected in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas in August and September 1993 during a cruise of the R.V. Nathaniel B. Palmer. The structure and stable-isotopic composition (18O/16O) of the cores were investigated in order to understand the growth conditions and to identify the key growth processes, particularly the contribution of snow to sea-ice formation. The structure and isotopic composition of a set of 12 cores that was collected for the same purpose in the Bellingshausen Sea in March 1992 are reassessed. Frazil ice and congelation ice contribute 44% and 26%, respectively, to the composition of both the winter and summer ice-core sets, evidence that the relatively calm conditions that favour congelation-ice formation are neither as common nor as prolonged as the more turbulent conditions that favour frazil-ice growth and pancake-ice formation. Both frazil- and congelation-ice layers have an av erage thickness of 0.12 m in winter, evidence that congelation ice and pancake ice thicken primarily by dynamic processes. The thermodynamic development of the ice cover relies heavily on the formation of snow ice at the surface of floes after sea water has flooded the snow cover. Snow-ice layers have a mean thickness of 0.20 and 0.28 m in the winter and summer cores, respectively, and the contribution of snow ice to the winter (24%) and summer (16%) core sets exceeds most quantities that have been reported previously in other Antarctic pack-ice zones. The thickness and quantity of snow ice may be due to a combination of high snow-accumulation rates and snow loads, environmental conditions that favour a warm ice cover in which brine convection between the bottom and top of the ice introduces sea water to the snow/ice interface, and bottom melting losses being compensated by snow-ice formation. Layers of superimposed ice at the top of each of the summer cores make up 4.6% of the ice that was examined and they increase by a factor of 3 the quantity of snow entrained in the ice. The accumulation of superimposed ice is evidence that melting in the snow cover on Antarctic sea-ice floes ran reach an advanced stage and contribute a significant amount of snow to the total ice mass.

scholarly journals Thinner Sea Ice Contribution to the Remarkable Polynya Formation North of Greenland in August 2018

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoyi Shen ◽  
Chang-Qing Ke ◽  
Bin Cheng ◽  
Wentao Xia ◽  
Mengmeng Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
North Coast ◽  
Average Value ◽  
The North ◽  
Wind Sea ◽  
The One

AbstractIn August 2018, a remarkable polynya was observed off the north coast of Greenland, a perennial ice zone where thick sea ice cover persists. In order to investigate the formation process of this polynya, satellite observations, a coupled ice-ocean model, ocean profiling data, and atmosphere reanalysis data were applied. We found that the thinnest sea ice cover in August since 1978 (mean value of 1.1 m, compared to the average value of 2.8 m during 1978–2017) and the modest southerly wind caused by a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (mean value of 0.82, compared to the climatological value of −0.02) were responsible for the formation and maintenance of this polynya. The opening mechanism of this polynya differs from the one formed in February 2018 in the same area caused by persistent anomalously high wind. Sea ice drift patterns have become more responsive to the atmospheric forcing due to thinning of sea ice cover in this region.

scholarly journals Validation of Sentinel-1-derived sea ice cover data in the Arctic

2020 ◽  
Vol 502 ◽  
pp. 012032
Author(s):  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Shibo Guo ◽  
Yan Sun ◽  
JianPing Dou ◽  
Xiao-Ming Li
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
The Arctic

scholarly journals Polar cod in jeopardy under the retreating Arctic sea ice

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mats Brockstedt Olsen Huserbråten ◽  
Elena Eriksen ◽  
Harald Gjøsæter ◽  
Frode Vikebø
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Keystone Species ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Biophysical Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Cod ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Shelf Sea

Abstract The Arctic amplification of global warming is causing the Arctic-Atlantic ice edge to retreat at unprecedented rates. Here we show how variability and change in sea ice cover in the Barents Sea, the largest shelf sea of the Arctic, affect the population dynamics of a keystone species of the ice-associated food web, the polar cod (Boreogadus saida). The data-driven biophysical model of polar cod early life stages assembled here predicts a strong mechanistic link between survival and variation in ice cover and temperature, suggesting imminent recruitment collapse should the observed ice-reduction and heating continue. Backtracking of drifting eggs and larvae from observations also demonstrates a northward retreat of one of two clearly defined spawning assemblages, possibly in response to warming. With annual to decadal ice-predictions under development the mechanistic physical-biological links presented here represent a powerful tool for making long-term predictions for the propagation of polar cod stocks.

scholarly journals Comparison of zooplankton vertical migration in an ice-free and a seasonally ice-covered Arctic fjord: An insight into the influence of sea ice cover on zooplankton behavior

2010 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 831-845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret I. Wallace ◽  
Finlo R. Cottier ◽  
Jørgen Berge ◽  
Geraint A. Tarling ◽  
Colin Griffiths ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Vertical Migration ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Fjord ◽  
Insight Into

scholarly journals Contrasting trends in sea ice and primary production in the Bering Sea and Arctic Ocean

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (7) ◽  
pp. 1180-1193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zachary W. Brown ◽  
Kevin R. Arrigo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Bering Sea ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Light Limitation ◽  
The Bering Sea

Abstract Brown, Z. W., and Arrigo, K. R. 2012. Contrasting trends in sea ice and primary production in the Bering Sea and Arctic Ocean. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: . Satellite remote sensing data were used to examine recent trends in sea-ice cover and net primary productivity (NPP) in the Bering Sea and Arctic Ocean. In nearly all regions, diminished sea-ice cover significantly enhanced annual NPP, indicating that light-limitation predominates across the seasonally ice-covered waters of the northern hemisphere. However, long-term trends have not been uniform spatially. The seasonal ice pack of the Bering Sea has remained consistent over time, partially because of winter winds that have continued to carry frigid Arctic air southwards over the past six decades. Hence, apart from the “Arctic-like” Chirikov Basin (where sea-ice loss has driven a 30% increase in NPP), no secular trends are evident in Bering Sea NPP, which averaged 288 ± 26 Tg C year−1 over the satellite ocean colour record (1998–2009). Conversely, sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean has plummeted, extending the open-water growing season by 45 d in just 12 years, and promoting a 20% increase in NPP (range 441–585 Tg C year−1). Future sea-ice loss will likely stimulate additional NPP over the productive Bering Sea shelves, potentially reducing nutrient flux to the downstream western Arctic Ocean.

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