On the dependency of GCM-based regional surface climate change projections on model biases, resolution and climate sensitivity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filippo Giorgi ◽  
Francesca Raffaele
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Model Biases ◽  
Surface Climate

On the Dependency of GCM-based Regional Surface Climate Change Projections on Model Biases, Resolution and Climate Sensitivity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filippo Giorgi ◽  
Francesca Raffaele
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Sensitivity ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Model Biases ◽  
Surface Climate

Abstract We investigate the dependency of projected regional changes in surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation on the model biases, resolution and global temperature sensitivity in two global climate model (GCM) ensembles. End of 21st century changes under high end scenarios normalized in units of Per Degree of Global Warming (PDGW) are examined for CMIP5 (RCP8.5) and CMIP6 (SSP585) ensembles of comparable size over 26 sub-continental scale regions, for December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA). We find that the average regional change patterns are very similar between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles, both for SAT and precipitation, with spatial correlations exceeding 0.84. Also similar are the regional bias patterns over most regions analyzed, suggesting that these two generations of models still share some common systematic errors. A statistically significant relationship between projected regional changes and biases is found in ~ 27% of regional cases for both SAT and precipitation; between regional changes and model resolution in 2% of cases for SAT and 12% of cases for precipitation; and between regional changes and global temperature sensitivity in 19% of cases for SAT and 14% of cases for precipitation. Therefore, we assess that the GCM resolution does not appear to be a significant factor in affecting the sub-continental scale projected changes, at least for the resolution range in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, while global temperature sensitivity and especially model biases play a more important role. These dependencies are not always consistent between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles. Overall, in our assessment the CMIP6 ensemble does not appear to provide substantially different, and presumably improved, regional surface climate change information compared to CMIP5 despite the use of more comprehensive models and somewhat higher resolution.

Uncertainty in CMIP6 climate change projections for the Australian monsoon is tied to hemispheric-scale changes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sugata Narsey ◽  
Josephine R. Brown ◽  
Robert A. Colman ◽  
Francois Delage ◽  
Scott Brendan Power ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Australian Monsoon

scholarly journals Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Climate Change Projections for Portugal

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 715
Author(s):  
Cristina Andrade ◽  
Sandra Mourato ◽  
João Ramos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Thermal Comfort ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
Cooling Degree Days ◽  
Heating Energy Demand

Climate change is expected to influence cooling and heating energy demand of residential buildings and affect overall thermal comfort. Towards this end, the heating (HDD) and cooling (CDD) degree-days along with HDD + CDD were computed from an ensemble of seven high-resolution bias-corrected simulations attained from EURO-CORDEX under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). These three indicators were analyzed for 1971–2000 (from E-OBS) and 2011–2040, and 2041–2070, under both RCPs. Results predict a decrease in HDDs most significant under RCP8.5. Conversely, it is projected an increase of CDD values for both scenarios. The decrease in HDDs is projected to be higher than the increase in CDDs hinting to an increase in the energy demand to cool internal environments in Portugal. Statistically significant linear CDD trends were only found for 2041–2070 under RCP4.5. Towards 2070, higher(lower) CDD (HDD and HDD + CDD) anomaly amplitudes are depicted, mainly under RCP8.5. Within the five NUTS II

scholarly journals Towards bridging the gap between climate change projections and maize producers in South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 132 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1153-1163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Willem A. Landman ◽  
Francois Engelbrecht ◽  
Bruce Hewitson ◽  
Johan Malherbe ◽  
Jacobus van der Merwe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Climate Change Projections

scholarly journals Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 2123-2165 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-L. Dufresne ◽  
M.-A. Foujols ◽  
S. Denvil ◽  
A. Caubel ◽  
O. Marti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Climate Change Projections
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