A clinical model for predicting knee replacement in early-stage knee osteoarthritis: data from osteoarthritis initiative

Author(s):  
Rongjie Wu ◽  
Yuanchen Ma ◽  
Yuhui Yang ◽  
Mengyuan Li ◽  
Qiujian Zheng ◽  
...  
2018 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 1115-1118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie E. Davis ◽  
Shao-Hsien Liu ◽  
Kate Lapane ◽  
Matthew S. Harkey ◽  
Lori Lyn Price ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
pp. jrheum.200145
Author(s):  
Jeffrey B. Driban ◽  
Matthew S. Harkey ◽  
Lori Lyn Price ◽  
Grace H. Lo ◽  
Timothy E. McAlindon

Objective We assessed if the inverse Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI) and Outcome Measures in Rheumatology (OMERACT) criteria relate to concurrent radiographic knee osteoarthritis (KOA) progression and decline in walking speed, as well as future knee replacement. Methods We conducted knee-based analyses of data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative. All knees had symptomatic OA: at least doubtful radiographic KOA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥ 1) and knee pain ≥ 10/100 (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index pain) at the 12-month visit. The inverse of the OARSI-OMERACT responder criteria depended on knee pain and function, and global assessment of knee impact. We used generalized linear mixed models to assess the relationship of the inverse OARSI‑OMERACT criteria over 2 years (i.e., 12-month and 36-month visits) with worsening radiographic severity (any increase in Kellgren-Lawrence grade from 12 months to 36 months) and decline in self-selected 20-m walking speed of ≥ 0.1m/s (from 12 months to 36 months). We used a Cox model to assess time to knee replacement during the 6 years after the 36-month visit as an outcome. Results Among the 1746 analyzed, 19% met the inverse OARSI-OMERACT criteria. Meeting the inverse OARSI-OMERACT criteria was associated with almost double the odds of experiencing concurrent worsening in radiographic KOA severity (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.32–2.70) or decline in walking speed (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.37–2.40). A knee meeting the inverse OARSI-OMERACT criteria was more likely to receive a knee replacement after the 36-month visit (23%) compared with a nonresponder (10%; HR 2.54, 95% CI 1.89–3.41). Conclusion The inverse OARSI-OMERACT criteria for worsening among people with KOA had good construct validity in relation to clinically relevant outcomes.


2019 ◽  
Vol 78 (12) ◽  
pp. 1699-1705 ◽  
Author(s):  
María Camacho-Encina ◽  
Vanesa Balboa-Barreiro ◽  
Ignacio Rego-Perez ◽  
Florencia Picchi ◽  
Jennifer VanDuin ◽  
...  

ObjectiveTo find autoantibodies (AAbs) in serum that could be useful to predict incidence of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (KOA).DesignA Nucleic-acid Programmable Protein Arrays (NAPPA) platform was used to screen AAbs against 2125 human proteins in sera at baseline from participants free of radiographic KOA belonging to the incidence and non-exposed subcohorts of the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) who developed or not, radiographic KOA during a follow-up period of 96 months. NAPPA-ELISA were performed to analyse reactivity against methionine adenosyltransferase two beta (MAT2β) and verify the results in 327 participants from the same subcohorts. The association of MAT2β-AAb levels with KOA incidence was assessed by combining several robust biostatistics analysis (logistic regression, Receiver Operating Characteristic and Kaplan-Meier curves). The proposed prognostic model was replicated in samples from the progression subcohort of the OAI.ResultsIn the screening phase, six AAbs were found significantly different at baseline in samples from incident compared with non-incident participants. In the verification phase, high levels of MAT2β-AAb were significantly associated with the future incidence of KOA and with an earlier development of the disease. The incorporation of this AAb in a clinical model for the prognosis of incident radiographic KOA significantly improved the identification/classification of patients who will develop the disorder. The usefulness of the model to predict radiographic KOA was confirmed on a different OAI subcohort.ConclusionsThe measurement of AAbs against MAT2β in serum might be highly useful to improve the prediction of OA development, and also to estimate the time to incidence.


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