Establishment of a deformation forecasting model for a step-like landslide based on decision tree C5.0 and two-step cluster algorithms: a case study in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China

Landslides ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 1275-1281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junwei Ma ◽  
Huiming Tang ◽  
Xiao Liu ◽  
Xinli Hu ◽  
Miaojun Sun ◽  
...  
2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
洪承昊 HONG Chenghao ◽  
陈京元 CHEN Jingyuan ◽  
赵勇 ZHAO Yong ◽  
宋德文 SONG Dewen ◽  
陈桂芳 CHEN Guifang ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (21) ◽  
pp. 7830
Author(s):  
Hongwei Jiang ◽  
Yuanyao Li ◽  
Chao Zhou ◽  
Haoyuan Hong ◽  
Thomas Glade ◽  
...  

Displacement predictions are essential to landslide early warning systems establishment. Most existing prediction methods are focused on finding an individual model that provides a better result. However, the limitation of generalization that is inherent in all models makes it difficult for an individual model to predict different cases accurately. In this study, a novel coupled method was proposed, combining the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks and support vector regression (SVR) algorithm with optimal weight. The Shengjibao landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area was taken as a case study. At first, the moving average method was used to decompose the cumulative displacement into two components: trend and periodic terms. Single-factor models based on LSTM neural networks and SVR algorithms were used to predict the trend terms of displacement, respectively. Multi-factors LSTM and SVR models were used to predict the periodic terms of displacement. Precipitation, reservoir water level, and previous displacement are considered as the candidate factors for inputs in the models. Additionally, ensemble models based on the SVR algorithm are used to predict the optimal weight to combine the results of the LSTM and SVR models. The results show that the LSTM models display better performance than SVR models; the ensemble model with optimal weight outperforms other models. The prediction accuracy can be further improved by also considering results from multiple models.


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