scholarly journals Evaluation of flood damage reduction throughout Japan from adaptation measures taken under a range of emissions mitigation scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 165 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Yamamoto ◽  
So Kazama ◽  
Yoshiya Touge ◽  
Hayata Yanagihara ◽  
Tsuyoshi Tada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
First Century ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Damage Cost ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

AbstractThis study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on flood damage and the effects of mitigation measures and combinations of multiple adaptation measures in reducing flood damage. The inundation depth was calculated using a two-dimensional unsteady flow model. The flood damage cost was estimated from the unit evaluation value set for each land use and prefectures and the calculated inundation depth distribution. To estimate the flood damage in the near future and the late twenty-first century, five global climate models were used. These models provided daily precipitation, and the change of the extreme precipitation was calculated. In addition to the assessment of the impacts of climate change, certain adaptation measures (land-use control, piloti building, and improvement of flood control level) were discussed, and their effects on flood damage cost reduction were evaluated. In the case of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the damage cost in the late twenty-first century will increase to 57% of that in the late twentieth century. However, if mitigation measures were to be undertaken according to RCP2.6 standards, the increase of the flood damage cost will stop, and the increase of the flood damage cost will be 28% of that in the late twentieth century. By implementing adaptation measures in combination rather than individually, it is possible to keep the damage cost in the future period even below that in the late twentieth century. By implementing both mitigation and adaptation measures, it is possible to reduce the flood damage cost in the late twenty-first century to 69% of that in the late twentieth century.

The Computer Judge

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Susskind
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Natural Language ◽  
Liberal Democracy ◽  
First Century ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Computer Scientists ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Programming Systems ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

What mutton-headed, technologically myopic luddite said this? I confess that these are my own words, as they appeared in 1986 in the Modern Law Review. Although this was comfortably more than thirty years ago, I can recall quite vividly what was going through my head (for want of a better term) when I wrote that passage. Today, I disagree with much that I said then. Emotionally, I no longer have any sense of horror in contemplating the possibility that judges might roundly be outperformed by machines. Technically, the passage of time has put me out of date. Computers often can (in some constrained circumstances) satisfactorily process speech and natural language. I also failed (along with most computer scientists) to predict that many of the remarkable advances in computing would come not through explicitly programming systems (whether, for example, to exhibit political preferences or creativity) but through machines ‘learning’ from vast sets of accumulated data. Morally, when I spoke of the values of western liberal democracy, I was reflecting the mood of the late twentieth century. As technology advances, it transpires, as Jamie Susskind explains in Future Politics, that our political conceptions change too. Liberal democracy in the twenty-first century may be significantly different from its ancestor.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on hurricane flood hazards in Jamaica Bay, New York

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 (4) ◽  
pp. 2153-2171
Author(s):  
Reza Marsooli ◽  
Ning Lin
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
First Century ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Flood Level ◽  
Jamaica Bay ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

AbstractSea level rise (SLR) and tropical cyclone (TC) climatology change could impact future flood hazards in Jamaica Bay—an urbanized back-barrier bay in New York—yet their compound impacts are not well understood. This study estimates the compound effects of SLR and TC climatology change on flood hazards in Jamaica Bay from a historical period in the late twentieth century (1980–2000) to future periods in the mid- and late-twenty-first century (2030–2050 and 2080–2100, under RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario). Flood return periods are estimated based on probabilistic projections of SLR and peak storm tides simulated by a hydrodynamic model for large numbers of synthetic TCs. We find a substantial increase in the future flood hazards, e.g., the historical 100-year flood level would become a 9- and 1-year flood level in the mid- and late-twenty-first century and the 500-year flood level would become a 143- and 4-year flood level. These increases are mainly induced by SLR. However, TC climatology change would considerably contribute to the future increase in low-probability, high-consequence flood levels (with a return period greater than 100 year), likely due to an increase in the probability of occurrence of slow-moving but intense TCs by the end of twenty-first century. We further conduct high-resolution coastal flood simulations for a series of SLR and TC scenarios. Due to the SLR projected with a 5% exceedance probability, 125- and 1300-year flood events in the late-twentieth century would become 74- and 515-year flood events, respectively, in the late-twenty-first century, and the spatial extent of flooding over coastal floodplains of Jamaica Bay would increase by nearly 10 and 4 times, respectively. In addition, SLR leads to larger surface waves induced by TCs in the bay, suggesting a potential increase in hazards associated with wave runup, erosion, and damage to coastal infrastructure.

Junkspace

October ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 100 ◽  
pp. 175-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rem Koolhaas
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
World Class ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

Logan Airport: A World-Class Upgrade for the Twenty-first Century Late-Twentieth Century Billboard

Sportsworld of the Hanshin Tigers

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
William W. Kelly
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Soap Opera ◽  
First Century ◽  
Professional Baseball ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Modern Japan ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

Baseball has been Japan’s national pastime for over a century, and the Hanshin Tigers have long been the country’s second favorite professional team in its second-largest city. This ethnography, based on multiple years of fieldwork, analyzes Hanshin Tiger baseball as a complex sportsworld, the collective product and the converging actions of the players themselves, demanding coaches, layers of intrusive management, a large and prying media, and millions of passionate and organized fans across the Kansai region. It explains the team’s popularity through decades of futility in the late twentieth century and charts the recent changes that have transformed it into a regularly competitive team. Over these years, the Hanshin Tigers have been a long-running soap opera of workplace melodrama and second-city anxiety, and they illustrate the enduring features and new vulnerabilities of professional baseball in the twenty-first century. The book demonstrates the significance of baseball for modern Japan and the importance of ethnography in critical sport studies.

The Subtle Art: Educating the Musician of the Twenty-First Century

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-55
Author(s):  
Joseph W Polisi
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
First Century ◽  
General Solutions ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century ◽  
Looking Back ◽  
Formative Years

The broad goals of this paper are to discuss the relation of the art of music to our society and our culture, to examine the artist as an individual in today's world, and most importantly, to present some of the personal and artistic conflicts that young musicians may experience during their formative years. In addition, I will suggest a few general solutions that address the problems inherent in educating the performing musician of the late twentieth century. [In celebration of MPPA's 20 years of publication, we are looking back at some of the notable articles that appeared in the early issues. This paper was published originally in December 1986 MPPA.]

scholarly journals A comparison of bioclimatic potential in two global regions during the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 609-620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria G. Lebedeva ◽  
Anthony R. Lupo ◽  
Chasity B. Henson ◽  
Alexandr B. Solovyov ◽  
Yury G. Chendev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
First Century ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

Media, Messages, and Emotions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brenton J. Malin
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Mass Media ◽  
First Century ◽  
Media Criticism ◽  
Media Messages ◽  
Early Twentieth Century ◽  
American Media ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

This chapter considers links between media and emotion in a modern American context. It traces certain understandings of emotion in order to tell a story about how American media critics have wrestled with questions of the affective life. The chapter shows some thinking about emotion and media that preceded the explosion of mass media and mass media criticism in the early twentieth century, before laying out some key popular and academic understandings of media from the early twentieth century. From here, the chapter turns to late-twentieth-century modifications and extensions of these ideas and then discusses their continued relevance at the dawn of the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals “A Genuine Old-Fashioned English Butler”: Nationalism and Conservative Politics in The Remains of the Day

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-26
Author(s):  
Emily Horton
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
First Century ◽  
Conservative Politics ◽  
Immigrant Populations ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

Abstract In the context of twenty-first century global conservatism, where anti-immigrant sentiment is everywhere apparent, the importance of Ishiguro’s writing arguably lies in its on-going challenge to this perspective’s faulty logic and its capacity to reveal the radical violence behind nationalist political attacks on minority and immigrant populations. In this article I explore this challenge explicitly through a politically-oriented reading of The Remains of the Day (1989), highlighting this novel’s joint critique of Thatcherite nationalism and late twentieth century global entrepreneurialism. While this focus obviously represents a response to an earlier socio-political moment, defined by its own unique amalgam of ideological anxieties, nevertheless what emerges most prominently through this reading is the novel’s topical condemnation of cultural essentialism and its attendant hierarchies, concerns which remain of utmost critical significance within the twenty-first century. Thus, by making this assessment explicit, highlighting British conservatism’s devastating psychological and material implications for affected individuals, ranging from repressed and traumatised psychologies to radical economic precarity, this novel can be seen to register Thatcherite prejudice in a poignantly relevant manner. Indeed, the pseudo-respect granted to the ‘genuine old-fashioned English butler’ in this novel might also be seen as comparable to Trump’s pseudo-populism or Brexit nostalgia, both of which likewise ignore the pressing reality of imperialism’s historical violence.

scholarly journals The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a Double CO2 Climate

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 265-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshio Kawatani ◽  
Kevin Hamilton ◽  
Shingo Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Phase Speed ◽  
First Century ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract The effects of anticipated twenty-first-century global climate change on the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) have been studied using a high-resolution version of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) atmospheric GCM. This version of the model is notable for being able to simulate a fairly realistic QBO for present-day conditions including only explicitly resolved nonstationary waves. A long control integration of the model was run with observed climatological sea surface temperatures (SSTs) appropriate for the late twentieth century, followed by another integration with increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and SSTs incremented by the projected twenty-first-century warming in a multimodel ensemble of coupled ocean–atmosphere runs that were forced by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario of future atmospheric composition. In the experiment for late twenty-first-century conditions the QBO period becomes longer and QBO amplitude weaker than in the late twentieth-century simulation. The downward penetration of the QBO into the lowermost stratosphere is also curtailed in the late twenty-first-century run. These changes are driven by a significant (30%–40%) increase of the mean upwelling in the equatorial stratosphere, and the effect of this enhanced mean circulation overwhelms counteracting influences from strengthened wave fluxes in the warmer climate. The momentum fluxes associated with waves propagating upward into the equatorial stratosphere do strengthen overall by ∼(10%–15%) in the warm simulation, but the increases are almost entirely in zonal phase speed ranges that have little effect on the stratospheric QBO but that would be expected to have important influences in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere.

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