scholarly journals Combining socio-economic and climate projections to assess heat risk

2021 ◽  
Vol 167 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Armand Landreau ◽  
Sirkku Juhola ◽  
Alexandra Jurgilevich ◽  
Aleksi Räsänen
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Postal Code ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Heat Risk ◽  
Heat Hazard

AbstractThe assessments of future climate risks are common; however, usually, they focus on climate projections without considering social changes. We project heat risks for Finland to evaluate (1) what kind of differences there are in heat vulnerability projections with different scenarios and scales, and (2) how the use of socio-economic scenarios influences heat risk assessments. We project a vulnerability index with seven indicators downscaled to the postal code area scale for 2050. Three different scenario sets for vulnerability are tested: one with five global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios; the second with three European SSPs (EUSSPs) with data at the sub-national scale (NUTS2); and the last with the EUSSPs but aggregated data at the national scale. We construct projections of heat risk utilizing climatic heat hazard data for three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and vulnerability and exposure data for five global SSPs up to 2100. In the vulnerability projections, each scenario in each dataset shows a decrease in vulnerability compared to current values, and the differences between the three scenario sets are small. There are evident differences both in the spatial patterns and in the temporal trends when comparing the risk projections with constant vulnerability to the projections with dynamic vulnerability. Heat hazard increases notably in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, but a decrease of vulnerability especially in SSP1 and SSP5 alleviates risks. We show that projections of vulnerability have a considerable impact on future heat-related risk and emphasize that future risk assessments should include the combination of long-term climatic and socio-economic projections.

scholarly journals Assessing climate risks across different business sectors and industries: an investigation of methodological challenges at national scale for the UK

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2121) ◽  
pp. 20170307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swenja Surminski ◽  
Manuela Di Mauro ◽  
J. Alastair R. Baglee ◽  
Richenda K. Connell ◽  
Joel Hankinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Climate Change Risk ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Methodological Challenges ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Uk

Climate change poses severe risks for businesses, which companies as well as governments need to understand in order to take appropriate steps to manage those. This, however, represents a significant challenge as climate change risk assessment is itself a complex, dynamic and geographically diverse process. A wide range of factors including the nature of production processes and value chains, the location of business sites as well as relationships and interdependencies with customers and suppliers play a role in determining if and how companies are impacted by climate risks. This research explores the methodological challenges for a national-scale assessment of climate risks through the lens of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) process and compares the approaches adopted in the first and second UKCCRA (2011, 2016), while also reflecting on international experiences elsewhere. A review of these issues is presented, drawing on a wide body of contemporary evidence from a range of sources including the research disciplines, grey literature and government policy. The study reveals the methodological challenges and highlights six broad themes, namely scale, evidence base, adaptation responses, scope, interdependencies and public policy. The paper concludes by identifying suitable lessons for future national climate risk assessments, which should guide the next phase of research in preparation for UKCCRA3 and those of national-level risk assessments elsewhere. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.

scholarly journals An Assessment of Social and Physical Vulnerability to Hydroclimate Extremes in Appalachia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leah R. Handwerger ◽  
Jennifer R. Runkle ◽  
Ronald Leeper ◽  
Elizabeth Shay ◽  
Kara Dempsey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Vulnerability ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Social Vulnerability Index ◽  
Physical Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerable Communities ◽  
Vulnerability Indicators

Abstract Appalachia is a cultural region in the southern and central Appalachian Mountains that lags behind the nation in several social vulnerability indicators. Climate projections over this region indicate that precipitation variability will increase in both severity and frequency in future decades, suggesting that the occurrence of natural hazards related to hydroclimate extremes will also increase. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of drought and precipitation and determine how trends overlap with vulnerable communities across Appalachia. The study utilized trend analysis through Mann-Kendall calculations and a Social Vulnerability Index, resulting in a bivariate map that displays areas most susceptible to adverse effects from hydroclimate extremes. Results show the southwestern portion of the region as most vulnerable to increased precipitation, and the central-southeast most vulnerable to an increase in drought-precipitation variability. This study is among the first to utilize the boundaries defined by the Appalachian Regional Commission from a climatological perspective, allowing findings to reach audiences outside the scientific community and bring more effective mitigation strategies that span from the local to federal levels.

scholarly journals Juxtaposing Farmers’ Suicides and Climate Change Vulnerability: An Empirical Analysis of Indian States

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-79
Author(s):  
Sridevi Gummadi ◽  
Amalendu Jyotishi ◽  
G Jagadeesh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Climate Change Vulnerability ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Comprehensive Study

India’s overall ranking on the Global Climate Risk Index has been deteriorating in recent years, making it more vulnerable to climate risks. It has been indicated in the literature that climate change is also associated with agrarian distress. However, empirical analyses are scanty on this, especially in the Indian context. In this analytical exercise, we tried to explore the association between farmers’ suicides and climate change vulnerability across Indian states. Using data from various sources, we arrive at an Agrarian Vulnerability Index and juxtaposed that with farmers’ suicide data between 1996 to 2015 collected from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB). We noted a strong association between climate change vulnerability and farmers’ suicides. The essence of this analysis is to indicate and understand the broad trends and associations. This research, in the process, informs and presses for a systematic, more comprehensive study with an agenda at micro and meso levels to understand the nuances of this association. Submitted: 01 November 2020; Revised: 11 January 2021; Accepted: 29 April 2021

A vulnerability index for climate related risks in Sweden

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Haas ◽  
Konstantinos Karagiorgos ◽  
Lars Nyberg ◽  
Andreas Pettersson
Keyword(s):  
Social Vulnerability ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
National Level ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Socioeconomic Vulnerability ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Spatial Level ◽  
Socio Economic Variables ◽  
The Impact

<p>Social vulnerability is mostly described as specific social inequalities in the context of a disaster. Following this understanding, empirical research focuses on the unequal exposure of different groups to disasters and/or on the unequal capacities of groups to anticipate, cope and recover from the impact of a hazard. Although social vulnerability has recently gained attention in academia, Sweden lacks frameworks and indicators to assess it at a national level.</p><p>Following the large amount of publicly available data in Sweden, to address this gap, we present a method for quantifying social vulnerability to climate risks in Swedish municipalities. A large number of variables were collected and analyzed to create quantitative indicators that purport to measure a municipality’s vulnerability. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the information in the variables was reduced to a smaller number of components and socioeconomic vulnerability scores for each Swedish municipality. The factor analysis resulted in five components explaining more than 75% of the total variance. The resulting components and the final index are mapped for each municipality.</p><p>The results show that socio-economic vulnerability is not evenly distributed across Sweden. Apart from those findings the fact that some municipal clusters are much more vulnerable than others, the developed method is a useful tool for comparing socio-economic conditions among municipalities and for identifying susceptible municipalities which are likely to face significant challenges in coping with future natural hazard events.</p><p>Preliminary results show similar trends of social vulnerability to natural hazards at a highly resolved spatial level of aggregation as comparted to municipal levels. As studies on social vulnerability are often data-driven and thus performed on larger administrative aggregations, the sub-set of socio-economic variables from Statistics Sweden used in this study was found useful in our approach. In order to explore social vulnerability in conjunction with coastal and fluvial flood scenarios, an interactive web map was created with ArcGIS Dashboards.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing Urban Risk to Extreme Heat in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2750
Author(s):  
Xiaojun Huang ◽  
Yanyu Li ◽  
Yuhui Guo ◽  
Dianyuan Zheng ◽  
Mingyue Qi
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Indicator System ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Heat Risk ◽  
Heat Hazard

Many cities are experiencing persistent risk in China due to frequent extreme weather events. Some extreme weather events, such as extreme heat hazard, have seriously threatened human health and socio-economic development in cities. There is an urgent need to measure the degree of extreme heat risk and identify cites with the highest levels of extreme heat risk. In this study, we presented a risk assessment framework of extreme heat and considered risk as a combination of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Based on these three dimensions, we selected relevant variables from historical meteorological data (1960–2016) and socioeconomic statistics in 2016, establishing an indicator system of extreme heat risk evaluation. Finally, we developed an extreme heat risk index to quantify the levels of extreme heat risk of 296 prefecture-level cities in China and revealed the spatial pattern of extreme heat risk in China in 2016 and their dominant factors. The results show that (1) cities with high levels of extreme heat hazard are mainly located in the south of China, especially in the southeast of China; (2) the spatial distribution of the extreme heat risk index shows obvious agglomeration characteristics; (3) the spatial distribution of the extreme heat risk is still mostly controlled by natural geographical conditions such as climate and topography; (4) among the four types of hazard-dominated, exposure-dominated, vulnerability-dominated, and low risk cities, the number of vulnerability-dominated cities is the largest. The results of this study can provide support for the risk management of extreme heat disasters and the formation of targeted countermeasures in China.

scholarly journals Continental Portuguese Territory Flood Social Susceptibility Index

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. 1921-1931 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Grosso ◽  
L. Dias ◽  
H. P. Costa ◽  
F. D. Santos ◽  
P. Garrett
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Region ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Lower Income ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Susceptibility Index ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Education Levels ◽  
Flood Effects

Abstract. The combination of human exposure, extreme weather events and lack of adaptation strategies to cope with flood-related impacts can potentially increase losses not only on infrastructure but also on human lives. These impacts are usually difficult to quantify due to the lack of data, and for this reason most of the studies developed at the national scale only include the main characteristics that define the societal or individual predisposition to be affected, resist, adapt or recover, when exposed to a flood. The main objective of this work was to develop a flood social susceptibility index for the continental Portuguese territory based on the most representative variables able to characterize different influencing factors. This index is a component of the national vulnerability index developed in the scope of Flood Maps in Climate Change Scenarios (CIRAC) project, supported by the Portuguese Association of Insurers (APS). The main results showed that the proposed index correctly identified populations less prepared to avoid flood effects or able to cope with them, mostly concentrated in rural inland areas with lower income and education levels when compared with the coastal region between Viana do Castelo and Setúbal.

Climate forcing and committed global warming: GHGs, aerosols and ozone 1970-2010

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alcide Zhao ◽  
David Stevenson ◽  
Massimi Bollasina
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Global Mean

<p>It is crucial to reduce uncertainties in our understanding of the climate impacts of short‐lived climate forcers, in the context that their emissions/concentrations are anticipated to decrease significantly in the coming decades worldwide. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), we performed time‐slice experiments to investigate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and climate respons to 1970–2010 changes in well‐mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), anthropogenic aerosols, and tropospheric and stratospheric ozone. Once the present‐day climate has fully responded to 1970–2010 changes in all forcings, both the global mean temperature and precipitation responses are twice as large as the transient ones, with wet regions getting wetter and dry regions drier. The temperature response per unit ERF for short‐lived species varies considerably across many factors including forcing agents and the magnitudes and locations of emission changes. This suggests that the ERF should be used carefully to interpret the climate impacts of short‐lived climate forcers. Changes in both the mean and the probability distribution of global mean daily precipitation are driven mainly by GHG increases. However, changes in the frequency distributions of regional mean daily precipitation are more strongly influenced by changes in aerosols, rather than GHGs. This is particularly true over Asia and Europe where aerosol changes have significant impacts on the frequency of heavy‐to‐extreme precipitation. Our results may help guide more reliable near‐future climate projections and allow us to manage climate risks more effectively.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing Local Vulnerability to Climate Change by Using Livelihood Vulnerability Index: A Case Study of Dipang Watershed in Central Himalaya Region of Nepal

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-163
Author(s):  
Kapil Dhungana ◽  
Harish Bahadur Chand ◽  
Dinesh Bhandari ◽  
Abhishek Kumar ◽  
Sanjay Singh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Group Discussions ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
High Exposure ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change

The current study uses the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change livelihood vulnerability index (IPCC-LVI) approaches to assess household’s livelihood vulnerability in the Dipang watershed located in the Central Himalayan region of Nepal. Primary data was collected through various participatory rural appraisal (PRA) tools such as direct observation, key informant interviews (KIIs), focus group discussions (FGDs) and household surveys. Similarly, data on climatic variables were collected from the nearby meteorological station over 30 years (1987-2018). The mean annual average temperature increased by 0.036°C while the average rainfall decreased by 2.30 mm. Respondents perceived a similar trend of rising temperatures, decreasing rainfall intensity, dryness in the atmosphere, and dwindling water sources. The overall LVI score (0.416) indicated that the households are vulnerable to climate change. Food (0.642) and natural disasters and climate variability (0.566) were the most vulnerable among all contributing factors. Similarly, the overall LVI-IPCC score (0.104) indicated that the households were moderately vulnerable due to high exposure (0.566), sensitivity (0.448), and low adaptive capacity (0.334). The study findings suggest an urgent need to reduce high exposure to climate risks, improved livelihood strategies, and boost agricultural productivity and health in the watershed area.

scholarly journals VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATIC RISKS IN NATIONAL AND LOCAL ASPECTS

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-258
Author(s):  
Valentin Răileanu ◽  
Maria Nedealcov ◽  
Galina Mîndru ◽  
Rodica Cojocari ◽  
Olga Crivova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Initial Data ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Climatic Risks

Republic of Moldova’s territory’s Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), calculated from exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate risks, is presented. Extreme values of climate risk factors, water supply, and statistical data on socio-demographic profile were used as the initial data. As a case study, LVI and its components for the Cogâlnic River’s basin within the limits of Republic of Moldova’s boundaries was extracted from the obtained maps.

scholarly journals Warming Winters Reduce Chill Accumulation for Peach Production in the Southeastern United States

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren E. Parker ◽  
John T. Abatzoglou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Winter Chill ◽  
Cultivar Selection ◽  
Production Practices ◽  
Selection For

Insufficient winter chill accumulation can detrimentally impact agriculture. Understanding the changing risk of insufficient chill accumulation can guide orchard management and cultivar selection for long-lived perennial crops including peaches. This study quantifies the influence of modeled anthropogenic climate change on observed chill accumulation since 1981 and projected chill accumulation through the mid-21st century, with a focus on principal peach-growing regions in the southeastern United States, and commonly grown peach cultivars with low, moderate, and high chill accumulation requirements. Anthropogenic climate change has reduced winter chill accumulation, increased the probability of winters with low chill accumulation, and increased the likelihood of winters with insufficient chill for commonly grown peach cultivars in the southeastern United States. Climate projections show a continuation of reduced chill accumulation and increased probability of winters with insufficient chill accumulation for cultivars with high chill requirements, with approximately 40% of years by mid-century having insufficient chill in Georgia. The results highlight the importance of inter-annual variability in agro-climate risk assessments and suggest that adaptive measures may be necessary in order to maintain current peach production practices in the region in the coming decades.

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