scholarly journals From flood risk mapping toward reducing vulnerability: the case of Addis Ababa

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (1) ◽  
pp. 387-415 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raffaele De Risi ◽  
Fatemeh Jalayer ◽  
Francesco De Paola ◽  
Stefano Carozza ◽  
Nebyou Yonas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
The City

Abstract Flood risk maps for the built environment can be obtained by integrating geo-spatial information on hazard, vulnerability and exposure. They provide precious support for strategic urban planning and decision-making. These maps, generated in a probabilistic framework, can consider various sources of uncertainty in the flood risk assessment such as the occurrence of extreme flooding events, future land use and land cover, characteristics of the buildings, and exposure to flooding. This paper investigates how these maps can be used in complicated urban context such as developing countries, where engineers are forced to work with scarce or little data. Specifically, a detailed investigation on the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, has been conducted. Although the city of Addis Ababa is undergoing extensive formal housing development, it is most likely that the informal settlements will continue to constitute a significant portion of urban housing landscape in the years to come. Recent research findings and field work from a large project (FP7-CLUVA) are employed in order to provide a quantified basis for decision-making between alternative adaptation strategies for informal buildings in Addis Ababa. Risk maps, obtained by up-scaling more accurate risk assessment results at neighborhood level, are adopted for risk zoning of the urban residential texture within the city. This provides risk-based criteria for both identifying suitable flood adaptation strategies and prioritizing between viable risk mitigation measures.

scholarly journals How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2121) ◽  
pp. 20170300 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. K. J. McDermott ◽  
S. Surminski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Local Decision Making ◽  
The City

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting ‘acceptable risk levels' and identifying ‘adequate’ protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process—this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of remedial action. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.

scholarly journals Flood Risk Management Practices in Morocco: Facts and Challenges

2021 ◽  
pp. 35-94
Author(s):  
Dalila Loudyi ◽  
Moulay Driss Hasnaoui ◽  
Ahmed Fekri
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Integrated Management ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
The Government

AbstractFrom ancient flood management practices driven by agricultural activities to dam’s policy for water resources management including flood protection, to the National Strategy for Natural Disaster Risk Integrated Management; Morocco has come a long way in flood risk management. This chapter describes the recurrent flooding phenomenon plaguing the country along with progress in flood risk assessment approaches in terms of technique, governance, and best practices. An extensive number of research articles, administrative documents, consultancy, and international organizations reports are analyzed to give a holistic up-to-date insight into flood risk management in Morocco and present a comprehensive and critical view from a scientific perspective. Information and data were collected from a range of various sources and synthesized to integrate all scientific and governance aspects. Though analysis of this landscape shows progresses made by the Government to protect the population and reduce flood risk, it also shows shortcomings and challenges still to be overcome. Thus, a SWOT analysis was carried out for scoping and identifying the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats pertaining to this issue. The analysis reveals various success and failure factors related to three major components: governance, risk assessment approaches, and flood risk mitigation measures sustainability.

scholarly journals A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2843-2863 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Escuder-Bueno ◽  
J. T. Castillo-Rodríguez ◽  
S. Zechner ◽  
C. Jöbstl ◽  
S. Perales-Momparler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Quantitative Estimation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Risk Awareness ◽  
Flood Risk Analysis ◽  
Flooding Risk

Abstract. Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

scholarly journals Coastal and river flood risk analyses for guiding economically optimal flood adaptation policies: a country-scale study for Mexico

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2121) ◽  
pp. 20170329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toon Haer ◽  
W. J. Wouter Botzen ◽  
Vincent van Roomen ◽  
Harry Connor ◽  
Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Flood Adaptation

Many countries around the world face increasing impacts from flooding due to socio-economic development in flood-prone areas, which may be enhanced in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. With increasing flood risk, it is becoming more important to be able to assess the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. To guide the design of such strategies, policy makers need tools to prioritize where adaptation is needed and how much adaptation funds are required. In this country-scale study, we show how flood risk analyses can be used in cost–benefit analyses to prioritize investments in flood adaptation strategies in Mexico under future climate scenarios. Moreover, given the often limited availability of detailed local data for such analyses, we show how state-of-the-art global data and flood risk assessment models can be applied for a detailed assessment of optimal flood-protection strategies. Our results show that especially states along the Gulf of Mexico have considerable economic benefits from investments in adaptation that limit risks from both river and coastal floods, and that increased flood-protection standards are economically beneficial for many Mexican states. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to modelling uncertainties, the transferability of our modelling approach and policy implications. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.

Pairwise Elicitation for a Decision Support Framework to Develop a Flood Risk Response Plan

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
MiguelAndres Guerra ◽  
Yekenalem Abebe
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Making ◽  
Risk Response ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Response Plan ◽  
Decision Making Framework

There are several ways of quantifying flood hazard. When the scale of the analysis is large, flood hazard simulation for an entire city becomes costly and complicated. The first part of this paper proposes utilizing experience and knowledge of local experts about flood characteristics in the area in order to come up with a first-level flood hazard and risk zoning maps, by implementing overlay operations in Arc GIS. In this step, the authors use the concept of pairwise comparison to eliminate the need for carrying out a complicated simulation to quantify flood hazard and risk. The process begins with identifying the main factors that contribute to flooding in a particular area. Pairwise comparison was used to elicit knowledge from local experts and assigned weights for each factor to reflect their relative importance toward flood hazard and risk. In the second part of this paper, the authors present a decision-making framework to support a flood risk response plan. Once the highest risk zones have been identified, a city can develop a risk response plan, for which this paper presents a decision-making framework to select an effective set of alternatives. The framework integrates tools from multicriteria decision-making, charrette design process to guide the pairwise elicitation, and a cost-effective analysis to include the limited budget constraint for any city. The theoretical framework uses the city of Addis Ababa for the first part of the paper. For the second part, the paper utilizes a hypothetical case of Addis Ababa and a mock city infrastructure department to illustrate the implementation of the framework.

Conceptualization of a Critical Infrastructure Network – Model for Flood Risk Assessments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Schotten ◽  
Daniel Bachmann
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Critical Infrastructures ◽  
Flood Exposure ◽  
Infrastructure Network ◽  
Flood Risk Analysis ◽  
De Bruijn

<p><span>In flood risk analysis it is a key principle to predetermine consequences of flooding to assets, people and infrastructures. Damages to critical infrastructures are not restricted to the flooded area. The effects of directly affected objects cascades to other infrastructures, which are not directly affected by a flood. Modelling critical infrastructure networks is one possible answer to the question ‘how to include indirect and direct impacts to critical infrastructures?’.</span></p><p>Critical infrastructures are connected in very complex networks. The modelling of those networks has been a basis for different purposes (Ouyang, 2014). Thus, it is a challenge to determine the right method to model a critical infrastructure network. For this example, a network-based and topology-based method will be applied (Pant et al., 2018). The basic model elements are points, connectors and polygons which are utilized to resemble the critical infrastructure network characteristics.</p><p>The objective of this model is to complement the state-of-the-art flood risk analysis with a quantitative analysis of critical infrastructure damages and disruptions for people and infrastructures. These results deliver an extended basis to differentiate the flood risk assessment and to derive measures for flood risk mitigation strategies. From a technical point of view, a critical infrastructure damage analysis will be integrated into the tool ProMaIDes (Bachmann, 2020), a free software for a risk-based evaluation of flood risk mitigation measures.</p><p>The data on critical infrastructure cascades and their potential linkages is scars but necessary for an actionable modelling. The CIrcle method from Deltares delivers a method for a workshop that has proven to deliver applicable datasets for identifying and connecting infrastructures on basis of cascading effects (de Bruijn et al., 2019). The data gained from CIrcle workshops will be one compound for the critical infrastructure network model.</p><p>Acknowledgment: This work is part of the BMBF-IKARIM funded project PARADes (Participatory assessment of flood related disaster prevention and development of an adapted coping system in Ghana).</p><p>Bachmann, D. (2020). ProMaIDeS - Knowledge Base. https://promaides.myjetbrains.com</p><p>de Bruijn, K. M., Maran, C., Zygnerski, M., Jurado, J., Burzel, A., Jeuken, C., & Obeysekera, J. (2019). Flood resilience of critical infrastructure: Approach and method applied to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Water (Switzerland), 11(3). https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030517</p><p>Ouyang, M. (2014). Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 121, 43–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.06.040</p><p>Pant, R., Thacker, S., Hall, J. W., Alderson, D., & Barr, S. (2018). Critical infrastructure impact assessment due to flood exposure. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 11(1), 22–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12288</p>

Development of An Exposure Model for Bridge Structures in Northern Algeria

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrés Abarca ◽  
Ricardo Monteiro
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Exposure Model ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Northern Algeria ◽  
Bridge Structures

In recent years, the use of large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the fragility of a specific region to an earthquake event, through the convolution of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. These studies tend to focus on the building stock of the region and sometimes neglect the evaluation of the infrastructure, which has great importance when determining the ability of a social group to attend to a disaster and to eventually resume normal activities. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), focuses on the proposal of an exposure model for bridge structures in Northern Algeria. The proposed model was developed using existing national data surveys, as well as satellite information and field observations. As a result, the location and detailed characterization of a significant share of the Algeria roadway bridge inventory was developed, as well as the definition of a taxonomy that is able to classify the most common structural systems used in Algerian bridge construction. The outcome of this study serves as input to estimate the fragility of the bridge infrastructure inventory and, furthermore, to the overall risk assessment of the Northern Algerian region. Such fragility model will, in turn, enable the evaluation of earthquake scenarios at a regional scale and provide valuable information to decision makers for the implementation of risk mitigation measures.

scholarly journals A Generalized Framework for Assessing Flood Risk and Suitable Strategies under Various Vulnerability and Adaptation Scenarios: A Case Study for Residents of Kyoto City in Japan

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2508
Author(s):  
Bing-Chen Jhong ◽  
Yasuto Tachikawa ◽  
Tomohiro Tanaka ◽  
Parmeshwar Udmale ◽  
Ching-Pin Tung
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Detention Ponds ◽  
Kyoto City ◽  
Generalized Framework ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
Adaptation Scenarios

This study proposes a generalized framework for the assessment of flood risk and potential strategies to mitigate flood under various vulnerability and adaptation scenarios. The possible causes of hazard, exposure and vulnerability in flood disaster were clearly identified by using a climate risk template. Then, levels of exposure and vulnerability with adaptive capacity and sensitivity were further defined by a quantification approach, and the climate risk maps were consequently provided. The potential possible climate adaptation strategies were investigated through the comparison of climate risk maps with diverse adaptation options. The framework was demonstrated in the Kyoto City in Japan with residents as a target population to reduce the flood risk. The results indicate that the government should pay attention to reducing the population in flood-prone areas and adopt diverse adaptation strategies to reduce the flood risk to the residents. Rainwater storage and green roofs as adaptation strategies as short-term planning options are recommended. The construction of detention ponds has been suggested to prevent flood risks in future as a part of the long-term planning process. In conclusion, the proposed framework is expected to be a suitable tool for supporting climate risk analysis in the context of flood disasters.

scholarly journals Hydrodynamics of pedestrians' instability in floodwaters

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 515-531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Arrighi ◽  
Hocine Oumeraci ◽  
Fabio Castelli
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Froude Number ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Numerical Results ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Dimensionless Numbers ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Mobility Parameter

Abstract. People's safety is the first objective to be fulfilled by flood risk mitigation measures, and according to existing reports on the causes of casualties, most of the fatalities are due to inappropriate behaviour such as walking or driving in floodwaters. Currently available experimental data on people instability in floodwaters suffer from a large dispersion primarily depending on the large variability of the physical characteristics of the subjects. This paper introduces a dimensionless mobility parameter θP for people partly immersed in flood flows, which accounts for both flood and subject characteristics. The parameter θP is capable of identifying a unique threshold of instability depending on a Froude number, thus reducing the scatter of existing experimental data. Moreover, a three-dimensional (3-D) numerical model describing the detailed geometry of a human body and reproducing a selection of critical pairs of water depth and velocity is presented. The numerical results in terms of hydrodynamic forces and force coefficients are analysed and discussed. Both the mobility parameter θP and the numerical results hint at the crucial role of the Froude number and relative submergence as the most relevant dimensionless numbers to interpret the loss of stability. Finally, the mobility parameter θP is compared with an analogous dimensionless parameter for vehicles' instability in floodwaters, providing a new contribution to support flood risk management and educating people.

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