DESIGN WIND SPEEDS IN REGIONS DOMINATED BY TROPICAL CYCLONES

1984 ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
P.N. Georgiou ◽  
A.G. Davenport ◽  
B.J. Vickery
Author(s):  
Sydney Sroka ◽  
Kerry Emanuel

AbstractThe intensity of tropical cyclones is sensitive to the air-sea fluxes of enthalpy and momentum. Sea spray plays a critical role in mediating enthalpy and momentum fluxes over the ocean’s surface at high wind speeds, and parameterizing the influence of sea spray is a crucial component of any air-sea interaction scheme used for the high wind regime where sea spray is ubiquitous. Many studies have proposed parameterizations of air-sea flux that incorporate the microphysics of sea spray evaporation and the mechanics of sea spray stress. Unfortunately, there is not yet a consensus on which parameterization best represents air-sea exchange in tropical cyclones, and the different proposed parameterizations can yield substantially different tropical cyclone intensities. This paper seeks to review the developments in parameterizations of the sea spray-mediated enthalpy and momentum fluxes for the high wind speed regime and to synthesize key findings that are common across many investigations.


Nature ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 422 (6929) ◽  
pp. 279-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark D. Powell ◽  
Peter J. Vickery ◽  
Timothy A. Reinhold

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cunmin Guo ◽  
Weihua Fang

<p>Strong winds over the sea surface induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) of Northwest Pacific (NWP) basin have been posing great threats to maritime activities, and quantitative assessment on its hazard intensity is of great importance. In the past, most studies focused on the modeling of winds over the land and areas of major island areas numerically or statistically. However, there is no systematic assessment of TC wind hazard over the NWP basin with long-term wind time series based on windfield modeling of historical TC events. In this study, the footprints of historical TC events during 1949~2019 were modeled based on the parametric models developed in previous studies, which simulate the winds of both gradient layer and planetary boundary layer. The historical TC track data were obtained from the China Meteorological Administration, and the wind records from the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) data were used for the calibration and validation of the models. The spatial resolution of the modeling output is 1km for winds over the sea surface. In order to reflect wind speed heterogeneity over the land of small islands, the wind speeds were modeled with 90-meter resolution by considering local terrain effects and roughness heights of islands, derived from 90m SRTM DEM data and 30m land-used data. Based on the simulated wind footprints of the 2384 TC events during 1949~2019, the relationships between wind intensity and frequency of each modeling pixel were analyzed and fitted with General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. A series of wind hazard maps, including wind speeds for return periods of 5a, 10a, 20a, 50a and 100a, and the exceedance probabilities of wind scales from 10 to 17, etc were produced. These wind hazard maps are useful to the management of TC disaster risks in the NWP basin.</p>


Radio Science ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 371-387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen J. Katzberg ◽  
Jason Dunion ◽  
George G. Ganoe

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Geiger ◽  
Katja Frieler ◽  
David N. Bresch

Abstract. Tropical cyclones pose a major risk to societies worldwide with about 22 million directly-affected people and damages of $29 billion on average per year over the last 20 years. While data on observed cyclones tracks (location of the center) and wind speeds is publically available these data sets do not contain information about the spatial extent of the storm and people or assets exposed. Here, we apply a simplified wind field model to estimate the areas exposed to wind speeds above 34, 64, and 96 knots. Based on available spatially-explicit data on population densities and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) we estimate 1) the number of people and 2) the sum of assets exposed to wind speeds above these thresholds accounting for temporal changes in historical distribution of population and assets (TCE-hist) and assuming fixed 2015 patterns (TCE-2015). The associated country-event level exposure data (TCE-DAT) covers the period 1950 to 2015 and is freely available at http://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2017.005. It is considered key information to 1) assess the contribution of climatological versus socio-economic drivers of changes in exposure to tropical cyclones, 2) estimate changes in vulnerability from the difference in exposure and reported damages and calibrate associated damage functions, and 3) build improved exposure-based predictors to estimate higher-level societal impacts such as long-term effects on GDP, employment, or migration. We validate the adequateness of our methodology by comparing our exposure estimate to estimated exposure obtained from reported wind fields available since 1988 for the United States. We expect that the free availability of the underlying model and TCE-DAT will make research on tropical cyclone risks more accessible to non-experts and stakeholders.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Pulmano ◽  
Leya Joykutty

Eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) are events that occur in intense tropical cyclones (TCs) and are difficult to predict.  An ERC event involves a secondary outer eyewall that surrounds the inner eyewall.  The outer eyewall slowly moves towards the eye and weakens the inner eyewall, eventually replacing the inner eyewall.  During this process, wind speeds lower and the structure of a TC becomes disorganized, further weakening the storm.  TCs often restrengthen after an ERC.  Little is known about the process and as such, poses an obstacle to forecasters.  The Automated Rotational Center Hurricane Eye Retrieval (ARCHER) Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle (MPERC) is an algorithm that uses 89-95 GHz passive microwave imagery and intensity estimates from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to predict the possibility of an ERC.  The effectiveness and ability of ARCHER MPERC was analyzed and compared to the NHC’s official reports on all Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones from 2017 to 2019.   MPERC ultimately predicted seventeen ERCs in nine tropical cyclones.  Of those, seven were valid ERCs.  The algorithm works well, predicting approximately 41% of the total number of predictions correctly.  However, MPERC did not predict five ERCs that were cited by the NHC.  It was further found that it was true that MPERC produces incorrect results in sheared and dry environments.


2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 81-92
Author(s):  
Ramasamy Venkatesan ◽  
Narayanaswamy Vedachalam ◽  
Gopalakrishnan Vengatesan ◽  
Robert A. Weller ◽  
Amit Tandon ◽  
...  

AbstractBased on the in-situ subsurface thermal and salinity measurements from the Ocean Moored Buoy Network for Northern Indian Ocean (OMNI) during the passage of very severe tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Bay of Bengal, we have identified that the depth of ocean‐atmosphere interaction is limited by the depth of the pycnocline. During the TC Vardha and Phailin with cyclone-period-averaged wind speeds of 8 and 21 m/s, respectively, the maximum possible rates of water-vapor generation during the cyclone period, computed based on the salinity changes and considering precipitation, are 1.0 and 9.3 kg/m2/h, respectively. For the same wind speeds, based on the ocean heat content (OHC) changes, it is quantified that ~78% and 89% of the OHC changes are in the form of latent heat. The real-time availability of the in-situ subsurface parameters can be used in the ocean-atmosphere coupled models and intensification studies.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bachir Annane ◽  
Mark Leidner ◽  
Ross Hoffman ◽  
Feixiong Huang ◽  
James Garrisson

<div> <div><em>For the analysis and forecasting of tropical cyclones, the main benefits of data from the CYGNSS constellation of satellites are the increased revisit frequency compared with polar-orbiting satellites and the ability to provide ocean surface wind observations through convective precipitation. Consequently, CYGNSS delivers an improved capability to observe the structure and evolution of ocean surface winds in and around tropical cyclones. This study quantifies the impact of assimilating CYGNSS delay-Doppler maps, CYGNSS retrieved wind speeds and derived CYGNSS wind vectors on 6-hourly analyses and 5-day forecasts of developing tropical cyclones, using the 2019 version of NOAA's operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model.</em></div> </div>


Author(s):  
L Fernandez-Baqueiro ◽  
A Fernandez-Ojeda ◽  
J Varela-Rivera

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