scholarly journals Exploratory analysis of air travel demand stimulation in first-time served markets

2022 ◽  
Vol 98 ◽  
pp. 102162
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abdelghany ◽  
Vitaly S. Guzhva
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Exploratory Analysis ◽  
Time Served ◽  
Air Travel Demand ◽  
First Time

Model Calibration and Forecasts of Air Travel Demand with Categorized Household Socioeconomic Attributes

2020 ◽  
Vol 2674 (6) ◽  
pp. 363-371
Author(s):  
Jungin Kim ◽  
Ikki Kim ◽  
Jaeyeob Shim ◽  
Hansol Yoo ◽  
Sangjun Park
Keyword(s):  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Behavioral Model ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Jeju Island ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Air Travel Demand ◽  
Travel Demand Model

The objectives of this study were to (1) construct an air demand model based on household data and (2) forecast future air demand to explain the relationship between air demand and individual travel behavior. To this end, domestic passenger air travel demand at Jeju Island in South Korea was examined. A multiple regression model with numerous explanatory variables was established by examining categorized household socioeconomic data that affected air demand. The air travel demand model was calibrated for 2009–2015 based on the annual average number of visits to Jeju Island by households in certain income groups. The explanatory variable was set using a dummy variable for each household income group and the proportion of airfare to GDP per capita. Higher household income meant more frequent visits to Jeju Island, which was well-represented in the model. However, the value of the coefficient for the highest income was lower than the value for the second-highest income group. This suggested that the highest income group preferred overseas travel destinations to domestic ones. The future air demand for Jeju airport was predicted as 26,587,407 passengers in 2026, with a subsequent gradual increase to approximately 33,000,000 passengers by 2045 in this study. This study proposed an air travel demand model incorporating household socioeconomic attributes to reflect individual travel behavior, which contrasts with previous studies that used aggregate data. By constructing an air travel model that incorporated socioeconomic factors as a behavioral model, more accurate and consistent projections could be obtained.

Air Travel Demand Studies: A Review

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Wang ◽  
Haiyan Song
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Air Travel Demand

Are the current expectations for growing air travel demand realistic?

2020 ◽  
Vol 80 ◽  
pp. 102840 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Becken ◽  
Fabrizio Carmignani
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Air Travel Demand

Forecast of domestic air travel demand change by opening the high speed rail

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 603-609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyung Whan Kim ◽  
Hyun Yeal Seo ◽  
Young Kim
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
High Speed Rail ◽  
Air Travel Demand

Long Term Forecasting of International Air Travel Demand in Nigeria (2018-2028)

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-24
Author(s):  
Adeniran, Adetayo Olaniyi ◽  
Kanyio, Olufunto Adedotun
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
High Tendency ◽  
Passenger Travel ◽  
Percent Increase ◽  
Air Travel Demand ◽  
Long Term Forecasting

This study examines long term forecasting of international air travel demand in Nigeria. Yearly data from 2001 to 2017 were collected from secondary sources. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression was used to forecast the ten years (2018 to 2028) demand for international air passenger travel in Nigeria. The demand for international air passenger in Nigeria from year 2001 to 2017 was compared with the forecast. Calculation reveals that the coefficient of determination R2 is 0.815, while the computed reveals that the coefficient of determination R2 is 0.769, this difference can be attributed to approximations to two decimal places for calculated test. The calculated test and computed test reveals that the error term is minimal and the explanation level is high; hence the prediction or forecast is reliable. The forecast for years 2020, 2025 and 2028 are 5,282,453, 6,342,519, and 6,978,559 respectively which are about 48 percent increase, 78 percent increase, and 95 percent increase respectively from demand in year 2017. The forecast of ten years from year 2018 to year 2028 reveals that there will be more increase in the demand for international air passenger travel in Nigeria. The implication of this increment is that existing air transport infrastructures should be upgraded, and new infrastructures should be procured and installed; airport and airline operations should be reviewed and strategized such that they will meet the expectations of airline and airport users. Other concerned business stakeholders should use this data to plan and invest as there is high tendency for profit making.

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