Forecasting realized volatility using a long-memory stochastic volatility model: estimation, prediction and seasonal adjustment

2006 ◽  
Vol 131 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 29-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rohit Deo ◽  
Clifford Hurvich ◽  
Yi Lu
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Long Memory ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Seasonal Adjustment ◽  
Model Estimation ◽  
Volatility Model

scholarly journals Apreçamento de Ativos Referenciados em Volatilidade

2006 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 203
Author(s):  
Alan De Genaro Dario
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Contingent Claims ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Currency Options ◽  
Variance Swaps ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Future Realized Volatility

Volatility swaps are contingent claims on future realized volatility. Variance swaps are similar instruments on future realized variance, the square of future realized volatility. Unlike a plain vanilla option, whose volatility exposure is contaminated by its asset price dependence, volatility and variance swaps provide a pure exposure to volatility alone. This article discusses the risk-neutral valuation of volatility and variance swaps based on the framework outlined in the Heston (1993) stochastic volatility model. Additionally, the Heston (1993) model is calibrated for foreign currency options traded at BMF and its parameters are used to price swaps on volatility and variance of the BRL / USD exchange rate.

scholarly journals A note on stochastic volatility model estimation

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Omar Abbara ◽  
Mauricio Zevallos
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Model Estimation ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Monte Carlo Evaluation

<p>The paper assesses the method proposed by Shumway and Stoffer (2006, Chapter 6, Section 10) to estimate the parameters and volatility of stochastic volatility models. First, the paper presents a Monte Carlo evaluation of the parameter estimates considering several distributions for the perturbations in the observation equation. Second, the method is assessed empirically, through backtesting evaluation of VaR forecasts of the S&amp;P 500 time series returns. In both analyses, the paper also evaluates the convenience of using the Fuller transformation.</p>

scholarly journals A Bayesian Semiparametric Realized Stochastic Volatility Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 617
Author(s):  
Jia Liu
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Asset Returns ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Estimation Bias ◽  
Bayesian Nonparametric ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Flexible Framework ◽  
Density Forecasts

This paper proposes a semiparametric realized stochastic volatility model by integrating the parametric stochastic volatility model utilizing realized volatility information and the Bayesian nonparametric framework. The flexible framework offered by Bayesian nonparametric mixtures not only improves the fitting of asymmetric and leptokurtic densities of asset returns and logarithmic realized volatility but also enables flexible adjustments for estimation bias in realized volatility. Applications to equity data show that the proposed model offers superior density forecasts for returns and improved estimates of parameters and latent volatility compared with existing alternatives.

PRICING JOINT CLAIMS ON AN ASSET AND ITS REALIZED VARIANCE IN STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (01) ◽  
pp. 1350005 ◽  
Author(s):  
LORENZO TORRICELLI
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Numerical Results ◽  
Quadratic Variation ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Realized Variance ◽  
Joint Function ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model

In the setting of a stochastic volatility model, we find a general pricing equation for the class of payoffs depending on the terminal value of a market asset and its final quadratic variation. This provides a pricing tool for European-style claims paying off at maturity a joint function of the underlying and its realized volatility or variance. We study the solution under various specific stochastic volatility models, give a formula for the computation of the delta and gamma of these claims, and introduce some new interesting payoffs that can be valued by means of the general pricing equation. Numerical results are given and compared to those from plain vanilla derivatives.

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