The paper focuses on the assessment of landslide hazard and risk along or across the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) natural gas pipeline project in Albania. TAP is a natural gas pipeline that will transport gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe, crossing Northern Greece and Southern Albania. It has long been recognised that landsliding is a major factor for TAP’s pipeline route selection in mountainous regions, especially the challenging area of central Albania. Experience from similar major pipelines has shown that hazard avoidance is generally the most cost- and time-efficient strategy to minimise the landslide risk since geohazard-related decision-making is usually risk-based. For landslides, the risk profile is expected to be dominated by the upslope expansion of existing landslides, resulting in a loss of ridge crest (where the Right of Way (RoW) is usually located), possibly leading to pipeline rupture. However, it is still possible that new landslides could develop under static and/or seismic conditions, especially on steep ridge flanks along the route. An expert determination approach was adopted to define a consensus for the estimate of the risk (i.e., chance of rupture) for the pipeline at eighty-two (82) identified landslide sites in Albania, to identify “hot spots” along the route, where risk-reduction measures could be prioritised. Ten landslides were characterised as “High Risk”, fifteen as “Medium Risk” and nineteen as “Low Risk”. Following this risk assessment, two large re-routings, as well as several local re-routings, were considered. Further investigation was required to identify the site-specific geotechnical conditions and probable remedial measures in cases where landslides could not be avoided by rerouting.
Quantitative risk assessment of a natural gas pipeline in an underground utility tunnel