The Power of Polls?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Roy ◽  
Shane P. Singh ◽  
Patrick Fournier
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Experimental Design ◽  
The United States ◽  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Political Sophistication ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Public opinion polls have become increasingly prominent during elections, but how they affect voting behaviour remains uncertain. In this work, we estimate the effects of poll exposure using an experimental design in which we randomly assign the availability of polls to participants in simulated election campaigns. We draw upon results from ten independent experiments conducted across six countries on four continents (Argentina, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States) to examine how polls affect the amount of information individuals seek and the votes that they cast. We further assess how poll effects differ according to individual-level factors, such as partisanship and political sophistication, and the content included in polls and how it is presented. Our work provides a comprehensive assessment of the power of polls and the implications for poll reporting in contemporary elections.

Waking Up in the Poll Booth

2009 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 901-910
Author(s):  
Robert E. Goodin ◽  
James Mahmud Rice
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Past ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Waking Up

Judging from Gallup Polls in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, opinion often changes during an election campaign. Come election day itself, however, opinion often reverts back nearer to where it was before the campaign began. That that happens even in Australia, where voting is compulsory and turnout is near-universal, suggests that differential turnout among those who have and have not been influenced by the campaign is not the whole story. Inspection of individual-level panel data from 1987 and 2005 British General Elections confirms that between 3 and 5 percent of voters switch voting intentions during the campaign, only to switch back toward their original intentions on election day. One explanation, we suggest, is that people become more responsible when stepping into the poll booth: when voting they reflect back on the government's whole time in office, rather than just responding (as when talking to pollsters) to the noise of the past few days' campaigning. Inspection of Gallup Polls for UK snap elections suggests that this effect is even stronger in elections that were in that sense unanticipated.

On the Issues Surrounding Economic Voting

1987 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHN R. HIBBING
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
The United States ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Individual

This is an analysis of the effects of economic factors on voting behavior in the United Kingdom. Aggregate- and individual-level data are used. When the results are compared to findings generated by the United States case, some intriguing differences appear. To mention just two examples, unemployment and inflation seem to be much more important in the United Kingdom than in the United States, and changes in real per capita income are positively related to election results in the United States and negatively related in the United Kingdom. More generally, while the aggregate results are strong and the individual-level results weak in the United States, in the United Kingdom the situation is practically reversed.

Conceptualising hegemonic legitimacy

2009 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVID P. RAPKIN ◽  
DAN BRAATEN
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Secondary Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Family Resemblance ◽  
Subjective Perceptions ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls ◽  
Basic Level ◽  
Multidimensional Concept

AbstractWhat is international legitimacy and whence does it stem? What entities seek it and why, and who grants or withholds it? How might the different meanings of the concept be reconciled? This article argues that Family Resemblance Concept (FRC) methods are particularly well-suited to explicating the complex meanings associated with this multidimensional concept. We start with a basic level definition based on subjective perceptions and beliefs, the normative quality of oughtness, and the idea of consent. We then expand this definition by developing several secondary-level dimensions: shared values, constitutionalism (consisting of two forms of process legitimacy), and outcome legitimacy. At the indicator level, we examine 14 different survey questions asked in international public opinion polls to provide a tentative empirical glimpse of how our FRC version of legitimacy could be operationalised and tested. The paper concludes with a discussion of the usefulness of the FRC scheme in imposing some order on the legitimacy concept and in illuminating the recent legitimacy problems afflicting the United States.

scholarly journals Public Policy and the Ageing Workforce in the United States

2004 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara E. Rix
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Policy ◽  
Older Workers ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Work Force ◽  
Labour Force Participation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Older Americans ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Despite an ageing work force and the impending retirement of millions of baby boomers that could lead to serious labour, skills, and occupational shortages, older workers are not high on the policy agenda in the United States. Nonetheless, labour force participation rates for the older population have been rising, and public opinion polls reveal a sizeable demand for post-retirement employment. The challenge lies in meeting that demand and fostering longer worklives on the part of even more older Americans. A substantial public policy response is by no means certain, although raising the retirement age is likely to feature prominently in the debate on Social Security reform.

Do Newspapers Enlighten Preferences? Personal Ideology, Party Choice and the Electoral Cycle: The United Kingdom, 1992-1997

2003 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 601-619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Andersen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mass Media ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
The United States ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Party Choice ◽  
Electoral Cycle ◽  
Personal Ideology ◽  
Using Data

The Gelman-King theory of enlightened preferences holds that the mass media play an important role in enlightening vote choices during election campaigns in the United States. This article adapts this theory to the electoral cycle in Britain. It also expands the theory to consider the media's role in facilitating consistent attitudes. Using data from the 1992-1997 British Election Panel Study, the author finds that attitudinal consistency and enlightened party preferences were highest immediately following elections. Moreover, there were significant differences according to the type of newspapers voters read, with broadsheet readers being the most enlightened. These findings suggest that enlightened preferences theory has wider applicability than simply US election campaigns.

Public Opinion and the Democratic Peace

2013 ◽  
Vol 107 (4) ◽  
pp. 849-865 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHAEL R. TOMZ ◽  
JESSICA L. P. WEEKS
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
The United States ◽  
Democratic Peace ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Public ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls ◽  
Shed Light

One of the most striking findings in political science is the democratic peace: the absence of war between democracies. Some authors attempt to explain this phenomenon by highlighting the role of public opinion. They observe that democratic leaders are beholden to voters and argue that voters oppose war because of its human and financial costs. This logic predicts that democracies should behave peacefully in general, but history shows that democracies avoid war primarily in their relations with other democracies. In this article we investigate not whether democratic publics are averse to war in general, but whether they are especially reluctant to fight other democracies. We embedded experiments in public opinion polls in the United States and the United Kingdom and found that individuals are substantially less supportive of military strikes against democracies than against otherwise identical autocracies. Moreover, our experiments suggest that shared democracy pacifies the public primarily by changing perceptions of threat and morality, not by raising expectations of costs or failure. These findings shed light on a debate of enduring importance to scholars and policy makers.

scholarly journals Have COVID-19-Related Economic Shocks Affected the Health Levels of Individuals in the United States and the United Kingdom?

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baozhen Jiang ◽  
Zhaohui Liu ◽  
Rui Shen ◽  
Leping Huang ◽  
Yang Tong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
The United States ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Health Index ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The United Kingdom

This paper introduces a health index for measuring the health level of societies during the lockdown era, i. e., for the period from March 21, 2020 to April 7, 2020. For this purpose, individual-level survey data from the Global Behaviors and Perceptions in the COVID-19 Pandemic dataset are considered. We focus on cases in the United States and the United Kingdom, and the data come from 11,270 and 11,459 respondents, respectively. We then use unit root tests with structural breaks to examine whether COVID-19-related economic shocks significantly affect the health levels of the United States and the United Kingdom. The empirical results indicate that the health levels in the United States and the United Kingdom are not significantly affected by the COVID-19-related economic shocks. The evidence shows that government directives (such as lockdowns) did not significantly change the health levels of these societies.

Volunteer Police: What Predicts Confidence in Training?

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 1010-1022
Author(s):  
Adam Dobrin ◽  
Ross Wolf ◽  
Ian K. Pepper ◽  
Seth W. Fallik
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Police Officers ◽  
Professional Training ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Part Time ◽  
The Impact

Volunteer police are used in both the United States and the Unite Kingdom to expand the services provided by full-time police personnel. The models of volunteer policing that have developed in the United States and the United Kingdom are based on the same concept, but differ in their level of operational preparedness and training. The utilization and confidence of these volunteer police in performing the functions of the police has been understudied. This current study builds on previous studies to develop a broader understanding of the confidence in training of part-time volunteer police officers by using a convenience sampling of three U.K. Northern Police Forces and three U.S. Florida Sheriff’s Offices. Results show the impact of individual-level variables on confidence in training preparation, with time since initial training having the largest impact. Later formal professional training appears to have little to no impact on confidence. Limitations and policy implications are discussed.

Why Americans Don't Care about Income Inequality

2005 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Glazer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Race Problem ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

The United States is the most unequal of the economically advanced nations, but despite this inequality there seems to less concern in the USA for inequality, less support for measures to reduce it, than in other economically advanced nations. This is demonstrated by the lesser percentage of GDP that supports redistributive programs attempting to redirect resources to the poor and less prosperous part of the population than we typically find in Europe. Public opinion polls also show less concern or sympathy for the poor in the United States. A recent major effort to explain this anomaly argues that the explanation is the race problem, and the identification of the poor with blacks. As against Europe, redistributive programs are not seen as programs for ‘us’ and ‘people like us’, but for those who are different and less deserving, particularly blacks, and this seems true. But one must add to this the strong tradition in the USA of successive immigrant groups providing through religious and other institutions for the welfare of their own kind, a tradition which has reduced the public support for public services for all.

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