A Political-Economy Forecast for the 2013 German Elections: Who to Rule with Angela Merkel?

2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (03) ◽  
pp. 479-480 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Jérôme ◽  
Véronique Jérôme-Speziari ◽  
Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Our political economy model has correctly forecasted the 1998 and 2005 elections. However, in 2002 we predicted a tight race to the benefit of the Christian Democrats(CDU)/Christian Socialists(CSU)-Free Democratic Party (FDP) opposition, so underestimating the narrow defeat of the FDP by the Green Party. In the German political system, proportional representation makes single-party domination almost impossible. On the contrary, the big parties, Social Democratic Party (SPD) or CDU/CSU, are pushed to build a majority coalition. In this competition, the FDP has been the “pivotal party” in German political life, at least until 2002. Since then, the Greens have challenged the FDP, with the Ecologists allowing the SPD to form a red-green coalition in 1998 and in 2002. Similarly, in 2005 the FDP was not associated with the grand coalition driven by Angela Merkel.

1974 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 146-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felice Rizzi

A FEW YEARS AGO, GALL1 AND PRANDI WROTE THAT THE UNIFICATION of the socialists represented a phase of rationalization of the Italian political system. Not only did the re-unification of the PSI (Socialist Party of Italy) and the PSDI (Social Democratic Party of Italy) lead to a simplification of the party subsystem (by reducing its excessive numbers), thus rendering the choice between alternatives easier for the electorate. But at last a single voice seemed to emerge which could undertake the task of opposing the twenty years of Christian Democrat predominance, which had been responsible for so many aspects of political ‘immobilism’. Moreover it was possible to discern a strategic design in the socialist plans — an optimistic design perhaps, but entailing possible innovations. The formation of a strong Socialist Party might have led to the overcoming of one of the principal - if not the greatest - defects of the Italian party system: the absence of a mechanism of rewards and punishments.


2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-79
Author(s):  
Vladislav Parlyk

The article is devoted to the crisis of social democratic movements in Western Europe in the XXI century. Emphasis is placed on the evolution of the Social Democratic Party of Austria. Of great importance are the developments of such scientists who dealt with this problem, as K. Kholodkovsky, N. Rabotyazhev, A. Vilkov, G. Nidermyulbihler, G. Sidl, G. Moschonas. The structure of the article is as follows. The first part shows a tendency to reduce electoral support for socialist and social democratic parties in countries such as France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Germany, Sweden, Austria and Greece. The general causes of the crisis of the Social Democrats are highlighted. Firstly, in the conditions of depopulation of the population and globalization of production, the working class is being eroded, conditions which supported decades social democrats across the whole Europe disappear. Secondly, social democrats, addressing target audience ceased to consider its specifics. Thirdly, owing to the crisis phenomena in the EU, migration crisis, deepening of inequality there is a radicalization as right and left electorate.The analysis of researches of the Austrian Institute of social researches and consulting of SORA indicates that the Social Democratic Party of Austria has ceased to be a «party of workers», its support base is currently voting more for the Austrian Freedom Party. Also the analysis of flows of voters between parliamentary parties (NET) of the last four electoral cycles in Austria states a steady trend of transition of bigger number of votes from social democrats to the right populists.In the second part in a chronological order four stages of modernization of ideology and complex organizational reform of the Social Democratic Party of Austria which captured the period from May, 2014 to November, 2018 are allocated and analysed. The main provisions of the new political program of the party, in which the Social Democratic Party of Austria offers voters their vision of solving the problems of the 21st century, as well as the structure and important points of the new organizational Statute, are considered. The key points of the new program are the digital revolution, the fair distribution of work and working time, resources and opportunities, as well as education, social security, a dignified old age, the expansion of non-commercial housing construction, forced migration, environmental problems, in particular global warming. Important points of the new Statute include the strengthening of the role of ordinary members of the party, the possibility of obtaining guest member status for one year with the right to become a permanent member of the party, the expansion of thematic and project initiatives.In conclusions major factors which acted as the trigger to fundamental updating of the Social Democratic Party of Austria, feature of this process are allocated. Results of a research can have a certain value for the scientists researching the social democratic movement and also subjects of party and political life.


2019 ◽  
pp. 1-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rimvydas Ragauskas

AbstractUsing individual-level data from three Lithuanian legislative elections (2008, 2012, 2016), this article investigates voter bias in an open-list proportional representation system in which parties rank candidates but voters are able to fully influence the rank order through preferential voting. This study examines the average effects of and variation in gender bias among voters of different parties. Most importantly, it also investigates how party cues interact with gender cues—that is, whether discriminatory tendencies vary by a candidate's party-determined viability. After establishing that there is no evidence of elite bias in favor of or against women candidates, with the exception of the Social Democrats and a few other parties, I demonstrate that, on average, female Lithuanian politicians receive approximately 7% fewer preferential votes than their male counterparts. In addition, the models predict that gender bias is most pronounced against the female candidates who are best placed to enter parliament. Finally, I demonstrate that Social Democratic voters are, on average, the most undisposed toward female candidates, correcting for positive elite bias toward female candidates from the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party, while voters of the Homeland Union party (conservatives) strongly prefer women politicians.


2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-120
Author(s):  
Dostal Jorg Michael

In the German political economy of the early 21st century, labor market policymaking has shifted toward deregulation and liberalization. In particular, the so-called Hartz labor market reforms of the Social Democratic Party and Green Party government, introduced in 2002 and 2003, pushed for employment growth in low-wage and deregulated employment sectors. This article focuses on one of the key debates triggered by Germany`s labor market deregulation after 2002, namely whether the introduction of a statutory minimum wage is required to re-regulate the country`s labor market. Based on interviews with members of the five political parties in the German federal parliament and analysis of each party`s policy-making discourses over time (2002-2012), the article suggests that the deregulation of the last decade has triggered demand for new policies of reregulation. This would include the introduction of a statutory minimum wage in Germany at some future point in time. However, such re-regulation does not question earlier labor market liberalization but serves as a political side-payment to ingrain the shift of the German political economy toward a more liberal regime.


2021 ◽  
pp. 173-196
Author(s):  
Matthew S. Shugart ◽  
Matthew E. Bergman ◽  
Cory L. Struthers ◽  
Ellis S. Krauss ◽  
Robert J. Pekkanen

This chapter focuses on Portugal and its districted, closed-list proportional representation system of elections to the Assembly of the Republic. The closed party lists imply that individual candidates have little to benefit from cultivating a personal vote. Parties control the order in which their members are elected and can be expected to be relatively free to deploy their personnel in a manner that enhances the collective reputation of the party. On the other hand, Portugal’s electoral system is one in which geographic location of votes matters to seat maximization, because instead of nationwide proportional representation, the country has several regional districts of varying, population density, and district magnitude. The results show some tendency of the major parties to use both the expertise and electoral–constituency models in assigning members to legislative committees, although stronger in the Socialist Party than in the Social Democratic Party.


Significance Romania has one of the highest levels of any EU state of dissatisfaction with the performance of its democracy. Yet in the upcoming elections, voters look likely to give a strong mandate to the Social Democratic Party (PSD), the chief architect of the political system that has prevailed since 1989. Impacts A PSD government may move cautiously for fear of provoking a popular reaction. The independence of the justice system will depend on the vigilance shown by Brussels. A long-delayed shake-up leading to a more coherent pro-reform party now appears likely. The extent of political renewal will depend on the extent to which the large diaspora engages in national affairs.


2021 ◽  
pp. 98-122
Author(s):  
Matthew S. Shugart ◽  
Matthew E. Bergman ◽  
Cory L. Struthers ◽  
Ellis S. Krauss ◽  
Robert J. Pekkanen

This chapter tests the book’s premises on a case of mixed-member proportional representation (MMP) representation, using the case of legislative committees in the Bundestag of Germany. Its results cover the two largest parties, the Christian Democratic Union and the Social Democratic Party. German parties should have a strong tendency to use the expertise model, because the MMP system means that votes cast anywhere in the country are of approximately equal value in maximizing seats. Thus, parties are able to emphasize their national reputation for policy, for which matching the expertise of their personnel to committee function is valuable. The MMP system also creates local single-seat districts in which nearly half of members are elected. Thus, aspects of the electoral–constituency model also should apply, as parties seek to develop connections to constituencies through local and personal vote of their legislators. The results offer strong support for the premises of the theory.


Author(s):  
Tommy Chung Yin Kwan ◽  
Dafydd J. Fell

Since democratization began in the mid-1980s, Taiwan’s party system has been dominated by two parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). However, smaller parties have at times played an important role, bringing diversity into the system, stressing different issues and representing neglected communities. These small parties tended to be those that split off from the mainstream parties, while alternative social movement parties struggled to be electorally relevant. The picture changed recently with the rise of two different types of movement parties, the New Power Party (NPP) and the Green Party Taiwan/Social Democratic Party Alliance (GPT/SDP). In this chapter we examine the relationship of these new players with the mainstream party, DPP, offering some thoughts on how the relationship affected the development of these alternative parties.


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