Dominance of Individuating Information and Neglect of Base Rates in Probability Information

1975 ◽  
Author(s):  
Don Lyon ◽  
Paul Slovic
Keyword(s):  
Base Rates ◽  
Probability Information ◽  
Individuating Information

First things first: What is a base rate?

1996 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clark McCauley
Keyword(s):  
Base Rate ◽  
Base Rates ◽  
Base Rate Fallacy ◽  
As If ◽  
Individuating Information

AbstractThe fallacy beneath the base rate fallacy is that we know what a base rate is. We talk as if base rates and individuating information were two different kinds of information. From a Bayesian perspective, however, the only difference between base rate and individuating information is – which comes first.

Conservatism revisited: Base rates, prior probabilities, and averaging strategies

1996 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-37
Author(s):  
Nancy Paule Melone ◽  
Timothy W. McGuire
Keyword(s):  
Base Rate ◽  
Prior Probabilities ◽  
Base Rates ◽  
Base Rate Fallacy ◽  
Individuating Information

AbstractConsistent with Koehler's position, we propose a generalization of the base rate fallacy and earlier conservatism literatures. In studies using both traditional tasks and new tasks based on ecologically valid base rates, our subjects typically underweight individuating information at least as much as they underweight base rates. The implications of cue consistency for averaging heuristics are discussed.

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