Combined association of cardiorespiratory fitness and family history of hypertension on the incidence of hypertension: a long-term cohort study of Japanese males

Background:Hypertension is a highly prevalent disorder. A nomogram to estimate the risk of hypertension in Chinese individuals is not available.Methods:6201 subjects were enrolled in the study and randomly divided into training set and validation set at a ratio of 2:1. The LASSO regression technique was used to select the optimal predictive features, and multivariate logistic regression to construct the nomograms. The performance of the nomograms was assessed and validated by AUC, C-index, calibration curves, DCA, clinical impact curves, NRI, and IDI.Results:The nomogram140/90 was developed with the parameters of family history of hypertension, age, SBP, DBP, BMI, MCHC, MPV, TBIL, and TG. AUCs of nomogram140/90 were 0.750 in the training set and 0.772 in the validation set. C-index of nomogram140/90 were 0.750 in the training set and 0.772 in the validation set. The nomogram130/80 was developed with the parameters of family history of hypertension, age, SBP, DBP, RDWSD, and TBIL. AUCs of nomogram130/80 were 0.705 in the training set and 0.697 in the validation set. C-index of nomogram130/80 were 0.705 in the training set and 0.697 in the validation set. Both nomograms demonstrated favorable clinical consistency. NRI and IDI showed that the nomogram140/90 exhibited superior performance than the nomogram130/80. Therefore, the web-based calculator of nomogram140/90 was built online.Conclusions:We have constructed a nomogram that can be effectively used in the preliminary and in-depth risk prediction of hypertension in a Chinese population based on a 10-year retrospective cohort study.Funding:This study was supported by the Hebei Science and Technology Department Program (no. H2018206110).

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Long-term use of antibiotics and risk of type 2 diabetes in women: a prospective cohort study

International Journal of Epidemiology ◽

10.1093/ije/dyaa122 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 49 (5) ◽

pp. 1572-1581

Author(s):

Jinqiu Yuan ◽

Yanhong Jessika Hu ◽

Jie Zheng ◽

Jean Hee Kim ◽

Tim Sumerlin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Type 2 Diabetes ◽

Cohort Study ◽

Family History ◽

Antibiotic Use ◽

Family History Of Diabetes ◽

The Past ◽

Increased Risk ◽

History Of

Abstract Background Accumulating evidence suggested that long-term antibiotic use may alter the gut microbiome, which has, in turn, been linked to type 2 diabetes. We undertook this study to investigate whether antibiotic use was associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes. Methods This prospective cohort study included women free of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer in the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS 2008–2014) and NHS II (2009–2017). We evaluated the overall duration of antibiotics use in the past 4 years and subsequent diabetes risk with Cox proportional-hazards regression adjusting for demography, family history of diabetes and lifestyle factors. Results Pooled analyses of NHS and NHS II (2837 cases, 703 934 person-years) revealed that a longer duration of antibiotic use in the past 4 years was associated with higher risk of diabetes [Trend-coefficient = 0.09, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.04 to 0.13]. Participants who received antibiotics treatment for a medium duration of 15 days to 2 months [hazard ratio (HR) 1.23, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.39] or long duration of >2 months (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.38) had higher risk of type 2 diabetes as compared with non-users. Subgroup analyses suggested that the associations were unlikely to be modified by age, family history of diabetes, obesity, smoking, alcohol drinking, physical activity and overall diet quality. Conclusions A longer duration of antibiotic use in recent years was associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes in women. Physicians should exercise caution when prescribing antibiotics, particularly for long-term use.

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