scholarly journals Two-stage algorithms for visually exploring spatio-temporal clustering of avian influenza virus outbreaks in poultry farms

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong-Dar Isaac Wu ◽  
Day-Yu Chao
Keyword(s):  
Avian Influenza ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Scan Statistics ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
Temporal Clustering ◽  
Aggregation Pattern ◽  
Knox Test ◽  
Spatio Temporal

AbstractThe development of visual tools for the timely identification of spatio-temporal clusters will assist in implementing control measures to prevent further damage. From January 2015 to June 2020, a total number of 1463 avian influenza outbreak farms were detected in Taiwan and further confirmed to be affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5Nx. In this study, we adopted two common concepts of spatio-temporal clustering methods, the Knox test and scan statistics, with visual tools to explore the dynamic changes of clustering patterns. Since most (68.6%) of the outbreak farms were detected in 2015, only the data from 2015 was used in this study. The first two-stage algorithm performs the Knox test, which established a threshold of 7 days and identified 11 major clusters in the six counties of southwestern Taiwan, followed by the standard deviational ellipse (SDE) method implemented on each cluster to reveal the transmission direction. The second algorithm applies scan likelihood ratio statistics followed by AGC index to visualize the dynamic changes of the local aggregation pattern of disease clusters at the regional level. Compared to the one-stage aggregation approach, Knox-based and AGC mapping were more sensitive in small-scale spatio-temporal clustering.

scholarly journals Spatial and seasonal patterns of FMD primary outbreaks in cattle in Zimbabwe between 1931 and 2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Laure Guerrini ◽  
Davies Mubika Pfukenyi ◽  
Eric Etter ◽  
Jérémy Bouyer ◽  
Chenjerai Njagu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Protected Areas ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Temporal Occurrence ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an important livestock disease impacting mainly intensive production systems. In southern Africa, the FMD virus is maintained in wildlife and its control is therefore complicated. However, FMD control is an important task to allow countries access to lucrative foreign meat market and veterinary services implement drastic control measures on livestock populations living in the periphery of protected areas, negatively impacting local small-scale livestock producers. This study investigated FMD primary outbreak data in Zimbabwe from 1931 to 2016 to describe the spatio-temporal distribution of FMD outbreaks and their potential drivers. The results suggest that: (i) FMD outbreaks were not randomly distributed in space across Zimbabwe but are clustered in the Southeast Lowveld (SEL); (ii) the proximity of protected areas with African buffalos was potentially responsible for primary FMD outbreaks in cattle; (iii) rainfall per se was not associated with FMD outbreaks, but seasons impacted the temporal occurrence of FMD outbreaks across regions; (iv) the frequency of FMD outbreaks increased during periods of major socio-economic and political crisis. The differences between the spatial clusters and other areas in Zimbabwe presenting similar buffalo/cattle interfaces but with fewer FMD outbreaks can be interpreted in light of the recent better understanding of wildlife/livestock interactions in these areas. The types of wildlife/livestock interfaces are hypothesized to be the key drivers of contacts between wildlife and livestock, triggering a risk of FMD inter-species spillover. The management of wildlife/livestock interfaces is therefore crucial for the control of FMD in southern Africa.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal epidemiology of Campylobacter jejuni enteritis, in an area of Northwest England, 2000–2002

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (10) ◽  
pp. 1384-1390 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. GABRIEL ◽  
D. J. WILSON ◽  
A. J. H. LEATHERBARROW ◽  
J. CHEESBROUGH ◽  
S. GEE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Variation ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Campylobacter Jejuni ◽  
Genetic Model ◽  
Spatial Clustering ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Temporal Clustering ◽  
Significant Seasonal Variation ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Temporal Interaction

SUMMARYA total of 969 isolates of Campylobacter jejuni originating in the Preston, Lancashire postcode district over a 3-year period were characterized using multi-locus sequence typing. Recently developed statistical methods and a genetic model were used to investigate temporal, spatial, spatio-temporal and genetic variation in human C. jejuni infections. The analysis of the data showed statistically significant seasonal variation, spatial clustering, small-scale spatio-temporal clustering and spatio-temporal interaction in the overall pattern of incidence, and spatial segregation in cases classified according to their most likely species-of-origin.

scholarly journals Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898–1949

2020 ◽  
Vol 287 (1928) ◽  
pp. 20200538
Author(s):  
Warren S. D. Tennant ◽  
Mike J. Tildesley ◽  
Simon E. F. Spencer ◽  
Matt J. Keeling
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Models ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
British India ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
The World ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis infection, continues to threaten low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. The complex interactions between rodents and fleas with their respective environments challenge our understanding of human plague epidemiology. Historical long-term datasets of reported plague cases offer a unique opportunity to elucidate the effects of climate on plague outbreaks in detail. Here, we analyse monthly plague deaths and climate data from 25 provinces in British India from 1898 to 1949 to generate insights into the influence of temperature, rainfall and humidity on the occurrence, severity and timing of plague outbreaks. We find that moderate relative humidity levels of between 60% and 80% were strongly associated with outbreaks. Using wavelet analysis, we determine that the nationwide spread of plague was driven by changes in humidity, where, on average, a one-month delay in the onset of rising humidity translated into a one-month delay in the timing of plague outbreaks. This work can inform modern spatio-temporal predictive models for the disease and aid in the development of early-warning strategies for the deployment of prophylactic treatments and other control measures.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing mechanism of the COVID-19 epidemic in Shandong province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinlong Shi ◽  
Xing Gao ◽  
Shuyan Xue ◽  
Fengqing Li ◽  
Qifan Nie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Shandong Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Aged People ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
And Control

AbstractThe novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) outbreak that emerged in late 2019 has posed a severe threat to human health and social and economic development, and thus has become a major public health crisis affecting the world. The spread of COVID-19 in population and regions is a typical geographical process, which is worth discussing from the geographical perspective. This paper focuses on Shandong province, which has a high incidence, though the first Chinese confirmed case was reported from Hubei province. Based on the data of reported confirmed cases and the detailed information of cases collected manually, we used text analysis, mathematical statistics and spatial analysis to reveal the demographic characteristics of confirmed cases and the spatio-temporal evolution process of the epidemic, and to explore the comprehensive mechanism of epidemic evolution and prevention and control. The results show that: (1) the incidence rate of COVID-19 in Shandong is 0.76/100,000. The majority of confirmed cases are old and middle-aged people who are infected by the intra-province diffusion, followed by young and middle-aged people who are infected outside the province. (2) Up to February 5, the number of daily confirmed cases shows a trend of “rapid increase before slowing down”, among which, the changes of age and gender are closely related to population migration, epidemic characteristics and intervention measures. (3) Affected by the regional economy and population, the spatial distribution of the confirmed cases is obviously unbalanced, with the cluster pattern of “high–low” and “low–high”. (4) The evolution of the migration pattern, affected by the geographical location of Wuhan and Chinese traditional culture, is dominated by “cross-provincial” and “intra-provincial” direct flow, and generally shows the trend of “southwest → northeast”. Finally, combined with the targeted countermeasures of “source-flow-sink”, the comprehensive mechanism of COVID-19 epidemic evolution and prevention and control in Shandong is revealed. External and internal prevention and control measures are also figured out.

Performance assessment of a two-stage CO2 small scale MT refrigerator

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biagio Citarella ◽  
Rita Mastrullo ◽  
Alfonso W. Mauro ◽  
Massimiliano Sfragara ◽  
Marcello Tammaro
Keyword(s):  
Performance Assessment ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Two Stage

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal dynamics of schistosomiasis in Rwanda between 2001 and 2012: impact of the national Neglected Tropical Disease control programme

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elias Nyandwi ◽  
Tom Veldkamp ◽  
Frank Badu Osei ◽  
Sherif Amer
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Control Programme ◽  
Scan Statistics ◽  
Major Public Health Problem ◽  
Implementation Phase ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact

Schistosomiasis is recognised as a major public health problem in Rwanda. We aimed to identify the spatio-temporal dynamics of its distribution at a fine-scale spatial resolution and to explore the impact of control programme interventions. Incidence data of Schistosoma mansoni infection at 367 health facilities were obtained for the period 2001-2012. Disease cluster analyses were conducted using spatial scan statistics and geographic information systems. The impact of control interventions was assessed for three distinct sub-periods. Findings demonstrated persisting, emerging and re-emerging clusters of schistosomiasis infection across space and time. The control programme initially caused an abrupt increase in incidence rates during its implementation phase. However, this was followed by declining and disappearing clusters when the programme was fully in place. The findings presented should contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of schistosomiasis distribution to be used when implementing future control activities, including prevention and elimination efforts.

Ongoing transmission of avian influenza A viruses in Hong Kong despite very comprehensive poultry control measures: A prospective seroepidemiology study

2016 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelvin K.W. To ◽  
Ivan F.N. Hung ◽  
Yin-Ming Lui ◽  
Florence K.Y. Mok ◽  
Andy S.F. Chan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Avian Influenza ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Influenza A Viruses

scholarly journals Small-scale spatio-temporal characteristics of accumulation rates in western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

2008 ◽  
Vol 54 (185) ◽  
pp. 315-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helgard Anschütz ◽  
Daniel Steinhage ◽  
Olaf Eisen ◽  
Hans Oerter ◽  
Martin Horwath ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Accumulation Rate ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Spatial Variations ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Accumulation Rates ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Dronning Maud Land ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Ground Penetrating ◽  
Firn Core

AbstractSpatio-temporal variations of the recently determined accumulation rate are investigated using ground-penetrating radar (GPR) measurements and firn-core studies. The study area is located on Ritscherflya in western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, at an elevation range 1400–1560 m. Accumulation rates are derived from internal reflection horizons (IRHs), tracked with GPR, which are connected to a dated firn core. GPR-derived internal layer depths show small relief along a 22 km profile on an ice flowline. Average accumulation rates are about 190 kg m−2 a−1 (1980–2005) with spatial variability (1σ) of 5% along the GPR profile. The interannual variability obtained from four dated firn cores is one order of magnitude higher, showing 1σ standard deviations around 30%. Mean temporal variations of GPRderived accumulation rates are of the same magnitude or even higher than spatial variations. Temporal differences between 1980–90 and 1990–2005, obtained from two dated IRHs along the GPR profile, indicate temporally non-stationary processes, linked to spatial variations. Comparison with similarly obtained accumulation data from another coastal area in central Dronning Maud Land confirms this observation. Our results contribute to understanding spatio-temporal variations of the accumulation processes, necessary for the validation of satellite data (e.g. altimetry studies and gravity missions such as Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)).

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