scholarly journals Predicting the current and future global distribution of the invasive freshwater hydrozoan Craspedacusta sowerbii

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillaume Marchessaux ◽  
Florian Lüskow ◽  
Gianluca Sarà ◽  
Evgeny A. Pakhomov
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Global Distribution ◽  
Aquatic Environments ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Potential Climate Change

AbstractThe freshwater jellyfish Craspedacusta sowerbii is one of the most widespread invasive species, but its global distribution remains uncertain due to ephemeral appearances and general lack of information in various aquatic environments. The aim of this study was to map current and future distributions (2050 and 2100) using Species Distribution Models allowing to visualize the habitat suitability and make projections of its changes under potential climate change scenarios. Except in Oceania where the range decreased, an expansion of C. sowerbii was projected during the next century under modeled future scenarios being most intensive during the first half of the century. The present study shows that the expansion of C. sowerbii worldwide would be facilitated mainly by precipitation, vapor pressure, and temperature. The predictions showed that this species over the eighty years will invade high-latitude regions in both hemispheres with ecological consequences in already threatened freshwater ecosystems.

scholarly journals Using species distribution models to infer potential climate change-induced range shifts of freshwater fish in south-eastern Australia

2011 ◽  
Vol 62 (9) ◽  
pp. 1043 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Bond ◽  
Jim Thomson ◽  
Paul Reich ◽  
Janet Stein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Freshwater Fish ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models

There are few quantitative predictions for the impacts of climate change on freshwater fish in Australia. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) linking historical fish distributions for 43 species from Victorian streams to a suite of hydro-climatic and catchment predictors, and applied these models to explore predicted range shifts under future climate-change scenarios. Here, we present summary results for the 43 species, together with a more detailed analysis for a subset of species with distinct distributions in relation to temperature and hydrology. Range shifts increased from the lower to upper climate-change scenarios, with most species predicted to undergo some degree of range shift. Changes in total occupancy ranged from –38% to +63% under the lower climate-change scenario to –47% to +182% under the upper climate-change scenario. We do, however, caution that range expansions are more putative than range contractions, because the effects of barriers, limited dispersal and potential life-history factors are likely to exclude some areas from being colonised. As well as potentially informing more mechanistic modelling approaches, quantitative predictions such as these should be seen as representing hypotheses to be tested and discussed, and should be valuable for informing long-term strategies to protect aquatic biota.

Hotspots of change in major tree species under climate warming

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flurin Babst ◽  
Richard L. Peters ◽  
Rafel O. Wüest ◽  
Margaret E.K. Evans ◽  
Ulf Büntgen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables

<p>Warming alters the variability and trajectories of tree growth around the world by intensifying or alleviating energy and water limitation. This insight from regional to global-scale research emphasizes the susceptibility of forest ecosystems and resources to climate change. However, globally-derived trends are not necessarily meaningful for local nature conservation or management considerations, if they lack specific information on present or prospective tree species. This is particularly the case towards the edge of their distribution, where shifts in growth trajectories may be imminent or already occurring.</p><p>Importantly, the geographic and bioclimatic space (or “niche”) occupied by a tree species is not only constrained by climate, but often reflects biotic pressure such as competition for resources with other species. This aspect is underrepresented in many species distribution models that define the niche as a climatic envelope, which is then allowed to shift in response to changes in ambient conditions. Hence, distinguishing climatic from competitive niche boundaries becomes a central challenge to identifying areas where tree species are most susceptible to climate change.</p><p>Here we employ a novel concept to characterize each position within a species’ bioclimatic niche based on two criteria: a climate sensitivity index (CSI) and a habitat suitability index (HSI). The CSI is derived from step-wise multiple linear regression models that explain variability in annual radial tree growth as a function of monthly climate anomalies. The HSI is based on an ensemble of five species distribution models calculated from a combination of observed species occurrences and twenty-five bioclimatic variables. We calculated these two indices for 11 major tree species across the Northern Hemisphere.</p><p>The combination of climate sensitivity and habitat suitability indicated hotspots of change, where tree growth is mainly limited by competition (low HSI and low CSI), as well as areas that are particularly sensitive to climate variability (low HSI and high CSI). In the former, we expect that forest management geared towards adjusting the competitive balance between several candidate species will be most effective under changing environmental conditions. In the latter areas, selecting particularly drought-tolerant accessions of a given species may reduce forest susceptibility to the predicted warming and drying.</p>

scholarly journals On climate change and subterranean spiders

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Mammola ◽  
Elena Piano ◽  
Alexandra Jones ◽  
Andrea Dejanaz ◽  
Marco Isaia
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Thermal Tolerance ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Genetic Data ◽  
Model Organisms ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Species ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Physiological Tests

Subterranean ecosystems offer intriguing opportunities to study mechanisms underlying responses to changes in climate because species within them are often adapted to largely constant temperatures. However, responses of specialized subterranean species to anthropogenic climate warming are still largely undiscussed. We combined physiological tests, species distribution models and genetic data to investigate the potential effect of raising temperatures on subterranean coenosis. We used spiders of the genus Troglohyphantes Joseph, 1881 (Araneae: Linyphiidae) as model organisms, focusing on a coherent biogeographic area of the Western Alps in which the distribution of these spiders has been well documented. Thermal tolerance experiments in climatic chambers pointed at a reduced physiological tolerance to temperature fluctuations at increasing levels of troglomorphism. This result suggests that, during their subterranean evolution, spiders have progressively fine-tuned thermal tolerance to the constant and narrow temperature ranges of their habitats. Further evidence of the sensitivity of our model species to temperature increase derives from species distribution models projected onto different climate change scenarios. Model projections point toward a future decline in habitat suitability for subterranean spiders. Moreover, genetic data at the population/species interface are suggestive of limited gene flow between subterranean populations, testifying reduced dispersal capacity and habitat connectivity. In light of these results, we predict the potential extinction of the most restricted endemic species. Our findings therefore emphasize the importance of considering subterranean organisms as model species for ecological studies dealing with climatic changes, and to extend such investigations to other subterranean systems worldwide.

scholarly journals Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (AmbrosiaL.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

PeerJ ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. e3104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Rasmussen ◽  
Jakob Thyrring ◽  
Robert Muscarella ◽  
Finn Borchsenius
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Future Health ◽  
Baltic Countries

Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosiaspp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in ‘high allergy risk’ (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27–100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe.

scholarly journals Integrating dispersal along freshwater ecosystems into species distribution models

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 1598-1611
Author(s):  
Sam Wenaas Perrin ◽  
Göran Englund ◽  
Stefan Blumentrath ◽  
Robert Brian O’Hara ◽  
Per‐Arne Amundsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Distribution Models

scholarly journals Wild dogs at stake: deforestation threatens the only Amazon endemic canid, the short-eared dog ( Atelocynus microtis )

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 190717
Author(s):  
Daniel G. Rocha ◽  
Katia Maria Paschoaletto Micchi de Barros Ferraz ◽  
Lucas Gonçalves ◽  
Cedric Kai Wei Tan ◽  
Frederico G. Lemos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Space Use ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Habitat Associations ◽  
Distribution Range ◽  
Forest Loss ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Wild Dogs

The persistent high deforestation rate and fragmentation of the Amazon forests are the main threats to their biodiversity. To anticipate and mitigate these threats, it is important to understand and predict how species respond to the rapidly changing landscape. The short-eared dog Atelocynus microtis is the only Amazon-endemic canid and one of the most understudied wild dogs worldwide. We investigated short-eared dog habitat associations on two spatial scales. First, we used the largest record database ever compiled for short-eared dogs in combination with species distribution models to map species habitat suitability, estimate its distribution range and predict shifts in species distribution in response to predicted deforestation across the entire Amazon (regional scale). Second, we used systematic camera trap surveys and occupancy models to investigate how forest cover and forest fragmentation affect the space use of this species in the Southern Brazilian Amazon (local scale). Species distribution models suggested that the short-eared dog potentially occurs over an extensive and continuous area, through most of the Amazon region south of the Amazon River. However, approximately 30% of the short-eared dog's current distribution is expected to be lost or suffer sharp declines in habitat suitability by 2027 (within three generations) due to forest loss. This proportion might reach 40% of the species distribution in unprotected areas and exceed 60% in some interfluves (i.e. portions of land separated by large rivers) of the Amazon basin. Our local-scale analysis indicated that the presence of forest positively affected short-eared dog space use, while the density of forest edges had a negative effect. Beyond shedding light on the ecology of the short-eared dog and refining its distribution range, our results stress that forest loss poses a serious threat to the conservation of the species in a short time frame. Hence, we propose a re-assessment of the short-eared dog's current IUCN Red List status (Near Threatened) based on findings presented here. Our study exemplifies how data can be integrated across sources and modelling procedures to improve our knowledge of relatively understudied species.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document