Development and Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Missed HIV Healthcare Provider Visits in a Large United States Clinical Cohort
Abstract Background Identifying individuals at high risk of missing HIV care provider visits could support proactive intervention. Previous prediction models for missed visits have not incorporated data beyond the individual-level. Methods We developed prediction models for missed visits among people living with HIV (PLWH) with ≥1 follow-up visit in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems from 2010-2016. Individual-level (medical record data and patient-reported outcomes), community-level (American Community Survey), HIV care site-level (standardized clinic leadership survey), and structural-level (HIV criminalization laws, Medicaid expansion, and state AIDS Drug Assistance Program budget) predictors were included. Models were developed using random forests with 10-fold cross-validation; candidate models with highest area under the curve (AUC) were identified. Results Data from 382,432 visits among 20,807 PLWH followed for a median of 3.8 years were included; median age was 44 years, 81% were male, 37% were Black, 15% reported injection drug use, and 57% reported male-to-male sexual contact. The highest AUC was 0.76 and strongest predictors were at the individual-level (prior visit adherence, age, CD4+ count) and community-level (proportion living in poverty, unemployed, and of Black race). A simplified model, including readily accessible variables available in a web-based calculator, had a slightly lower AUC of 0.700. Conclusions Prediction models validated using multi-level data had a similar AUC to previous models developed using only individual-level data. Strongest predictors were individual-level variables, particularly prior visit adherence, though community-level variables were also predictive. Absent additional data, PLWH with previous missed visits should be prioritized by interventions to improve visit adherence.