scholarly journals When fossil clades ‘compete’: local dominance, global diversification dynamics and causation

2021 ◽  
Vol 288 (1959) ◽  
pp. 20211632
Author(s):  
Scott Lidgard ◽  
Emanuela Di Martino ◽  
Kamil Zágoršek ◽  
Lee Hsiang Liow
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Models ◽  
Fossil Species ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Genus Richness ◽  
Local Species ◽  
Species Occurrences ◽  
Species Proportions ◽  
Local Dominance ◽  
Ecological Equivalence ◽  
Cheilostome Bryozoans

Examining the supposition that local-scale competition drives macroevolutionary patterns has become a familiar goal in fossil biodiversity studies. However, it is an elusive goal, hampered by inadequate confirmation of ecological equivalence and interactive processes between clades, patchy sampling, few comparative analyses of local species assemblages over long geological intervals, and a dearth of appropriate statistical tools. We address these concerns by reevaluating one of the classic examples of clade displacement in the fossil record, in which cheilostome bryozoans surpass the once dominant cyclostomes. Here, we analyse a newly expanded and vetted compilation of 40 190 fossil species occurrences to estimate cheilostome and cyclostome patterns of species proportions within assemblages, global genus richness and genus origination and extinction rates while accounting for sampling. Comparison of time-series models using linear stochastic differential equations suggests that inter-clade genus origination and extinction rates are causally linked to each other in a complex feedback relationship rather than by simple correlations or unidirectional relationships, and that these rates are not causally linked to changing within-assemblage proportions of cheilostome versus cyclostome species.

scholarly journals Are local dominance and inter-clade dynamics causally linked when one fossil clade displaces another?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Lidgard ◽  
Emanuela Di Martino ◽  
Kamil Zágoršek ◽  
Lee Hsiang Liow
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Tools ◽  
Fossil Species ◽  
Diversification Rates ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Local Species ◽  
Species Occurrences ◽  
Species Proportions ◽  
Local Dominance ◽  
Ecological Equivalence ◽  
Cheilostome Bryozoans

AbstractDisputing the supposition that ecological competition drives macroevolutionary patterns is now a familiar goal in many fossil biodiversity studies. But it is an elusive goal, hampered by patchy sampling, few assemblage-level comparative analyses, unverified ecological equivalence of clades and a dearth of appropriate statistical tools. We address these concerns with a fortified and vetted compilation of 40190 fossil species occurrences of cyclostome and cheilostome bryozoans, a canonical example of one taxonomically dominant clade being displaced by another. Dramatic increases in Cretaceous cheilostome genus diversification rates begin millions of years before cheilostomes overtake cyclostomes in local species proportions. Moreover, analyses of origination and extinction rates over 150 Myr suggest that inter-clade dynamics are causally linked to each other, but not to changing assemblage-level proportions.One Sentence SummaryGlobal fossil diversification rates and local taxonomic dominance are not causally linked.

Growth in encrusting cheilostome bryozoans: I. Evolutionary trends

Paleobiology ◽  
1989 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Lidgard ◽  
Jeremy B. C. Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Morphological Evolution ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Basic Element ◽  
Fossil Species ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Fossil Assemblages ◽  
Ecological Dominance ◽  
Cheilostome Bryozoans

Growth of the colony is a basic element of morphological evolution and life history in cheilostome bryozoans. Here we consider the occurrence of different modes of growth in encrusting cheilostomes through geologic time and in well-studied living associations. We assess patterns of zooid formation by direct examination of skeletal characters in species from nearly all diverse fossil assemblages reported from North America and quantify within-assemblage diversities and abundance rankings for fossil encrusting species with different modes of growth. These data document macroevolutionary trends showing a transition from dominance of an apparently primitive mode of budding in the Early Cretaceous to derived modes through the Tertiary. The trends are characterized by their long duration and apparent convergence among systematic subgroups within the Cheilostomata. We then consider the validity of our observations as adaptive trends. Patterns of ecological dominance among living and fossil species indicate that different patterns of zooid formation are important determinants of success of colonies as reflected by their abundance, competitive ability, survivorship, and recovery from injury or predation. The consistency of the long-term trends and evidence for the existence of ecological mechanisms in fossil assemblages suggest a major evolutionary role for biotic interactions.

A sampling-adjusted macroevolutionary history for Ordovician-Early Silurian crinoids

Paleobiology ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanan E. Peters ◽  
William I. Ausich
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Middle Ordovician ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Short Term Change ◽  
Term Change ◽  
Genus Richness ◽  
History Of ◽  
Stratigraphic Ranges ◽  
Fossil Preservation

Temporal variation in sampling intensity and geologically controlled rates of fossil preservation distort macroevolutionary patterns in the fossil record. Here, we use a comprehensive, list-based compilation of taxonomically and stratigraphically vetted global crinoid genus occurrences to evaluate and correct for the effects of variable and incomplete sampling from the Ordovician through Early Silurian. After standardizing the number of occurrences or the number of biofacies used to estimate the stratigraphic ranges of genera and after adjusting rates of turnover to account for the incomplete preservation of true extinction and origination pulses, we find support for several important revisions to the macroevolutionary history of crinoids. First, in contrast to the uncorrected data, sample-standardized genus richness does not appear to increase by more than 20% after an abrupt Middle Ordovician (Harnagian) diversification. Second, the only significant short-term change in genus richness following the Harnagian increase is a ≥24% decline from the Rawtheyan to the Hirnantian. Third, volatility in rates of genus extinction is increased after adjusting for preservation and there remain significant peaks of extinction in the Rawtheyan, which marks the end-Ordovician extinction, and in the middle of the Early Silurian. Finally, significant increases in origination rates occur in the Early Silurian. These results reaffirm the importance of the end-Ordovician extinction for crinoids, but they also highlight the comparatively poorly sampled Early Silurian as a time of turnover among crinoids.Crinoid genus extinction rates are positively correlated with area-weighted rates of sedimentary package truncation, suggesting that extinction may have been controlled by physical environmental changes, such as the contraction of unique epicontinental sea habitats. The lack of a correlation between genus origination and sedimentary package initiation reinforces this hypothesis and suggests that other factors, such as evolutionary innovations and biotic interactions during the Ordovician radiation, may have been more important in controlling the diversification of crinoids.

The double mass extinction revisited: reassessing the severity, selectivity, and causes of the end-Guadalupian biotic crisis (Late Permian)

Paleobiology ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew E. Clapham ◽  
Shuzhong Shen ◽  
David J. Bottjer
Keyword(s):  
Beta Diversity ◽  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Marine Invertebrate ◽  
Sharp Decrease ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Marine Habitat ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Double Mass ◽  
Genus Richness ◽  
Permian Mass Extinction

The end-Guadalupian extinction, at the end of the Middle Permian, is thought to have been one of the largest biotic crises in the Phanerozoic. Previous estimates suggest that the crisis eliminated 58% of marine invertebrate genera during the Capitanian stage and that its selectivity helped the Modern evolutionary fauna become more diverse than the Paleozoic fauna before the end-Permian mass extinction. However, a new sampling-standardized analysis of Permian diversity trends, based on 53731 marine invertebrate fossil occurrences from 9790 collections, indicates that the end-Guadalupian “extinction” was actually a prolonged but gradual decrease in diversity from the Wordian to the end of the Permian. There was no peak in extinction rates; reduced genus richness exhibited by all studied invertebrate groups and ecological guilds, and in different latitudinal belts, was instead driven by a sharp decrease in origination rates during the Capitanian and Wuchiapingian. The global diversity decrease was exacerbated by changes in beta diversity, most notably a reduction in provinciality due to the loss of marine habitat area and a pronounced decrease in geographic disparity over small distances. Disparity over moderate to large distances was unchanged, suggesting that small-scale beta diversity changes may have resulted from compression of bathymetric ranges and homogenization of onshore-offshore faunal gradients stemming from the spread of deep-water anoxia around the Guadalupian/Lopingian boundary. Although tropical invertebrate genera were no more likely than extratropical ones to become extinct, the marked reduction in origination rates during the Capitanian and Wuchiapingian is consistent with the effects of global cooling (the Kamura Event), but may also be consistent with other environmental stresses such as anoxia. However, a gradual reduction in diversity, rather than a sharp end-Guadalupian extinction, precludes the need to invoke drastic extinction mechanisms and indicates that taxonomic loss at the end of the Paleozoic was concentrated in the traditional end-Permian (end-Changhsingian) extinction, which eliminated 78% of all marine invertebrate genera.

scholarly journals Dissecting the paleocontinental and paleoenvironmental dynamics of the great Ordovician biodiversification

Paleobiology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (02) ◽  
pp. 221-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franziska Franeck ◽  
Lee Hsiang Liow
Keyword(s):  
High Energy ◽  
Extinction Rate ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Diversification Rates ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Regional Dynamics ◽  
Genus Richness ◽  
Very High

AbstractThe Ordovician was a time of drastic biological and geological change. Previous work has suggested that there was a dramatic increase in global diversity during this time, but also has indicated that regional dynamics and dynamics in specific environments might have been different. Here, we contrast two paleocontinents that have different geological histories through the Ordovician, namely Laurentia and Baltica. The first was situated close to the equator throughout the whole Ordovician, while the latter has traversed tens of latitudes during the same time. We predict that Baltica, which was under long-term environmental change, would show greater average and interval-to-interval origination and extinction rates than Laurentia. In addition, we are interested in the role of the environment in which taxa originated, specifically, the patterns of onshore–offshore dynamics of diversification, where onshore and offshore areas represent high-energy and low-energy environments, respectively. Here, we predict that high-energy environments might be more conducive for originations.Our new analyses show that the global Ordovician spike in genus richness from the Dapingian to the Darriwilian Stage resulted from a very high origination rate at the Dapingian/Darriwilian boundary, while the extinction rate remained low. We found substantial interval-to-interval variation in the origination and extinction rates in Baltica and Laurentia, but the probabilities of origination and extinction are somewhat higher in Baltica than Laurentia. Onshore and offshore areas have largely indistinguishable origination and extinction rates, in contradiction to our predictions. The global spike in origination rates at the Dapingian/Darriwilian boundary is apparent in Baltica, Laurentia, and onshore and offshore areas, and abundant variability in diversification rates is apparent over other time intervals for these paleocontinents and paleoenvironments. This observation hints at global mechanisms for the spike in origination rates at the Dapingian/Darriwilian boundary but a domination of more regional and local mechanisms over other time intervals in the Ordovician.

scholarly journals The definition and macroevolutionary study of planktic foraminiferal higher taxa

1992 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 133-133
Author(s):  
Steven D'Hondt
Keyword(s):  
Phylogenetic Trees ◽  
Planktic Foraminifera ◽  
Fossil Species ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Higher Taxa ◽  
Late Paleocene ◽  
Extant Species ◽  
Stable Isotopic ◽  
Early Paleocene ◽  
Surface Dwelling

Planktic foraminiferal species are generally assigned to higher taxa on the basis of shared morphologic characters and stratigraphic age. These assignments are usually justified on the basis of apparent phyletic relationships. Extant species assigned to the same genera usually exhibit similar trophic and reproductive behavior and are associated with similar watermasses. Paleogeographic and stable isotopic data suggest that coeval fossil species also generally exhibit similar paleoecologic and paleoceanographic associations within well-constrained genera.Despite shared morphologic characters and stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental associations, many higher taxa of planktic foraminifera are not believed to be monophyletic. Many superspecific taxa are widely accepted as paraphyletic (i.e. Guembelitria, Heterohelix). Such paraphyly has commonly resulted from maintaining a different generic or familial name for descendant species that diverge strongly from their ancestral bauplan. Additionally, some higher taxa appear to be polyphyletic (i.e. Eoglobigerinidae, Globorotalia).As presently defined, superspecific taxa–commonly paraphyletic–can generally be used to examine relative radiation and extinction rates within and between different planktic foraminiferal adaptive zones. For example, analysis of Paleocene genera demonstrates rapid earliest Paleocene origination and radiation of sea-surface-dwelling and deeper-dwelling biserial and trochospiral genera. This earliest Paleocene radiation is quickly followed by disappearance of these surface-dwelling genera and some deeper-dwelling genera, in turn followed by major radiation within new surface-dwelling trochospiral genera in the mid and Late Paleocene. Such analysis documents the relative diversity and succession of major adaptive groups, regardless of their phylogenetic relationships.The phyletic status of existing superspecific taxa does not preclude macroevolutionary study of monophyletic groups—or require that presently paraphyletic taxa be subsumed into larger monophyletic taxa. It simply requires that study of monophyletic groups be explicitly based on cladograms or phylogenetic trees. Such studies can address topics of clear macroevolutionary interest, including (i) the relative diversity and longevity of different monophyletic groups and (ii) general patterns of origination and extinction within clades. Additionally, while phylogenetic analysis is not necessary to determine patterns of succession and diversity of within and between adaptive groups, it can amplify our understanding of such patterns. For example, the earliest Paleocene appears to be marked by extremely rapid radiation within two monophyletic groups. The first reaches peak diversity within the earliest Paleocene and dominates earliest Paleocene planktic foraminiferal assemblages, but decreases radically in diversity and abundance within the Early Paleocene. The second continues to diversify throughout the Paleocene and dominates mid and Late Paleocene faunas. Consideration of phylogenetic and paleoecologic relationships within and between both monophyletic groups clearly reveals convergent evolution of deep and surface-dwelling morphotypes, and of biserial and trochospiral forms.

A fossil Aspergillus from Eocene Dominican amber

1988 ◽  
Vol 62 (01) ◽  
pp. 141-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerard M. Thomas ◽  
George O. Poinar
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Fossil Species ◽  
First Report ◽  
Dominican Amber ◽  
Eocene Amber

A sporulating Aspergillus is described from a piece of Eocene amber originating from the Dominican Republic. The Aspergillus most closely resembles a form of the white spored phase of Aspergillus janus Raper and Thom. This is the first report of a fossil species of Aspergillus.

Time-Series Models in Marketing: Some Recent Developments

Marketing ZFP ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 32 (JRM 1) ◽  
pp. 24-29
Author(s):  
Marnik G. Dekimpe ◽  
Dominique M. Hanssens
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Recent Developments

A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN UNIVARIATE AND BIVARIATE TIME SERIES MODELS FOR CRUDE PALM OIL INDUSTRY IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 374
Author(s):  
Pauline Jin Wee Mah ◽  
Nur Nadhirah Nanyan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Crude Palm Oil ◽  
Univariate Time Series ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
Bivariate Time Series

The main purpose of this study is to compare the performances of univariate and bivariate models on four time series variables of the crude palm oil industry in Peninsular Malaysia. The monthly data for the four variables, which are the crude palm oil production, price, import and export, were obtained from Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) and Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC). In the first part of this study, univariate time series models, namely, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average (ARFIMA) and autoregressive autoregressive (ARAR) algorithm were used for modelling and forecasting purposes. Subsequently, the dependence between any two of the four variables were checked using the residuals’ sample cross correlation functions before modelling the bivariate time series. In order to model the bivariate time series and make prediction, the transfer function models were used. The forecast accuracy criteria used to evaluate the performances of the models were the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results of the univariate time series showed that the best model for predicting the production was ARIMA  while the ARAR algorithm were the best forecast models for predicting both the import and export of crude palm oil. However, ARIMA  appeared to be the best forecast model for price based on the MAE and MAPE values while ARFIMA  emerged the best model based on the RMSE value.  When considering bivariate time series models, the production was dependent on import while the export was dependent on either price or import. The results showed that the bivariate models had better performance compared to the univariate models for production and export of crude palm oil based on the forecast accuracy criteria used.

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