scholarly journals Reduced COVID-19-Related Critical Illness and Death, and High Risk of Epidemic Resurgence, After Physical Distancing in Ontario, Canada

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashleigh Tuite ◽  
Amy L Greer ◽  
Steven De Keninck ◽  
David N Fisman
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Activity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Case Detection ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Initial Wave ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

We explored the impact of physical distancing measures on COVID-19 transmission in the population of Ontario, Canada using a previously described age- and health-status stratified transmission model. The model was fit to confirmed cases occupying intensive care unit (ICU) beds and mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 cases for the time period 19 March to 26 April 2020. We projected that mortality would have been 4.6-fold what was observed had physical distancing measures not been implemented in the province. Relaxation of physical distancing measures without compensatory increases in case detection, isolation, and/or contact tracing was projected to result in resurgence of disease activity. Return to normal or near-normal levels of contact would rapidly result in cases exceeding ICU capacity. Maintaining physical distancing for a longer period of time, allowing for the initial wave of infections to subside, delayed this resurgence, but the level of contacts post-restrictive distancing was the major factor determining how quickly ICU capacity was expected to be overwhelmed. Using a model, we demonstrate the marked impact strong public health measures had in reducing ICU admissions and mortality in Ontario. We also show that this hard-earned success is tenuous: relaxation of physical distancing measures in the near-term is projected to result in a rapid resurgence of disease activity.

Situating ‘careful surveillance’

2021 ◽  
pp. 136787792199745
Author(s):  
Mark Andrejevic ◽  
Hugh Davies ◽  
Ruth DeSouza ◽  
Larissa Hjorth ◽  
Ingrid Richardson
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Public Space ◽  
Social Care ◽  
Cultural Practices ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

In this article we explore preliminary findings from the study COVIDSafe and Beyond: Perceptions and Practices conducted in Australia in 2020. The study involved a survey followed by interviews, and aimed to capture the dynamic ways in which members of the Australian public perceive the impact of Covid practices – especially public health measures like the introduction of physical and social distancing, compulsory mask wearing, and contact tracing. In the rescripting of public space, different notions of formal and informal surveillance, along with different textures of mediated and social care, appeared. In this article, we explore perceptions around divergent forms of surveillance across social, technological, governmental modes, and the relationship of surveillance to care in our media and cultural practices. What does it mean to care for self and others during a pandemic? How does care get enacted in, and through, media interfaces and public interaction?

scholarly journals COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
J Rocklöv ◽  
H Sjödin ◽  
A Wilder-Smith
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Cruise Ship ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Basic Reproduction Rate ◽  
Cruise Ships ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Cruise ships carry a large number of people in confined spaces with relative homogeneous mixing. On 3 February, 2020, an outbreak of COVID-19 on cruise ship Diamond Princess was reported with 10 initial cases, following an index case on board around 21-25th January. By 4th February, public health measures such as removal and isolation of ill passengers and quarantine of non-ill passengers were implemented. By 20th February, 619 of 3700 passengers and crew (17%) were tested positive. Methods We estimated the basic reproduction number from the initial period of the outbreak using SEIR models. We calibrated the models with transient functions of countermeasures to incidence data. We additionally estimated a counterfactual scenario in absence of countermeasures, and established a model stratified by crew and guests to study the impact of differential contact rates among the groups. We also compared scenarios of an earlier versus later evacuation of the ship. Results The basic reproduction rate was initially 4 times higher on-board compared to the ${R}_0$ in the epicentre in Wuhan, but the countermeasures lowered it substantially. Based on the modeled initial ${R}_0$ of 14.8, we estimated that without any interventions within the time period of 21 January to 19 February, 2920 out of the 3700 (79%) would have been infected. Isolation and quarantine therefore prevented 2307 cases, and lowered the ${R}_0$ to 1.78. We showed that an early evacuation of all passengers on 3 February would have been associated with 76 infected persons in their incubation time. Conclusions The cruise ship conditions clearly amplified an already highly transmissible disease. The public health measures prevented more than 2000 additional cases compared to no interventions. However, evacuating all passengers and crew early on in the outbreak would have prevented many more passengers and crew from infection.

scholarly journals A Model Based Analysis for COVID-19 Pandemic in India: Implications for Health Systems and Policy for Low- and Middle-Income Countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shankar Prinja ◽  
Pankaj Bahuguna ◽  
Yashika Chugh ◽  
Anna Vassall ◽  
Arvind Pandey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health System ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
System Response ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundOur analysis aims to model COVID-19 pandemic in India, potential impact of various measures, along with assessment of health system preparedness and cost to manage the epidemic.MethodsWe developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) mathematical model to predict the health outcomes under an unmitigated scenario which comprises of air travel restrictions alone, and the current scenario consisting of air travel restrictions along with 8-week lockdown. In addition, we also evaluate the effectiveness of 8-week lockdown along with intensified public health measures at varying level of effectiveness. We assessed the impact of these interventions on COVID-19 related health outcomes in comparison to the unmitigated scenario. Next, we ascertain the need for augmenting infrastructure and the costs of COVID-19 management in India.FindingsIn the event of a lockdown for 8 weeks, the peak of the epidemic shifts by 34-76 days, and the number of cases at the end of 8-week lockdown reduces by 69% to 97% with varying effectiveness of lockdown. However, the cumulative long-term cases remain the same. Intensification of public health surveillance measures with 60% effectiveness is estimated to reduce the cases at peak and cumulative number of infections by 70% and 26.6% respectively. The requirement of ICU beds and ventilators would reduce by 83% with intensified public health measures. The cost of managing COVID-19 in India is nearly 4.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the absence of any intervention which increases to 6.2% with intensified public health measures for COVID-19 response.ConclusionLockdown measures delay the onset of peak, and give much needed time to health system to prepare. Strengthening the public health system response in terms of testing, isolation treatment of cases, and contact tracing needs would lead to significant gains in terms of case load, and meeting health system needs.SummaryWhat is already known?A few studies have been carried out in Indian context to model the epidemic. These models explored the impact of lockdowns and social distancing measures focusing more on the course of the epidemic but none of these evaluated the impact on health system’s response needed as well as the economic impact of COVID-19 management in India. The findings from these studies are limited in a sense that either these studies evaluated the hypothetical scenarios of strategies implemented or focusing to smaller geographical regions in India.What are the new findings?Evidence pertaining to health economic impact of COVID-19 management, in context to Low- and Middle-Income countries, is very limited. To address this, we used the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to assess:the health system preparedness challenge in terms of hospital beds for isolation, intensive care and ventilators which would be required to manage the epidemic and the economic implications of managing the COVID-19 pandemic in India.the incremental cost of intensified public health measures per infection and per death averted.What do the new finding imply?In India, measures such as lockdowns would certainly delays the onset of peak of COVID-19 epidemic. This would help delay the surge of cases, which would buy time for the health system to prepare. Strengthening the health system response in terms of enhanced testing, isolation of cases, treatment and contact tracing, as is being done currently, would have to be the mainstay to reduce the impact of the pandemic in terms of reduction in infected population and COID-19 deaths in India until vaccine becomes available.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
R Moss ◽  
J Wood ◽  
D Brown ◽  
F Shearer ◽  
AJ Black ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Health System ◽  
Clinical Care ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Australian Government ◽  
Australian Health ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTBackgroundThe ability of global health systems to cope with increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases is of major concern. In readiness for this challenge, Australia has drawn on clinical pathway models developed over many years in preparation for influenza pandemics. These models have been used to estimate health care requirements for COVID-19 patients, in the context of broader public health measures.MethodsAn age and risk stratified transmission model of COVID-19 infection was used to simulate an unmitigated epidemic with parameter ranges reflecting uncertainty in current estimates of transmissibility and severity. Overlaid public health measures included case isolation and quarantine of contacts, and broadly applied social distancing. Clinical presentations and patient flows through the Australian health care system were simulated, including expansion of available intensive care capacity and alternative clinical assessment pathways.FindingsAn unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic would dramatically exceed the capacity of the Australian health system, over a prolonged period. Case isolation and contact quarantine alone will be insufficient to constrain case presentations within a feasible level of expansion of health sector capacity. Overlaid social restrictions will need to be applied at some level over the course of the epidemic to ensure that systems do not become overwhelmed, and that essential health sector functions, including care of COVID-19 patients, can be maintained. Attention to the full pathway of clinical care is needed to ensure access to critical care.InterpretationReducing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality will rely on a combination of measures to strengthen and extend public health and clinical capacity, along with reduction of overall infection transmission in the community. Ongoing attention to maintaining and strengthening the capacity of health care systems and workers to manage cases is needed.FundingAustralian Government Department of Health Office of Health Protection, Australian Government National Health and Medical Research Council

scholarly journals Molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Greece reveals low rates of onward virus transmission after lifting of travel restrictions based on risk assessment during summer 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evangelia Georgia Kostaki ◽  
Georgios A. Pavlopoulos ◽  
Kleio-Maria Verrou ◽  
Giannis Ampatziadis-Michailidis ◽  
Vaggelis Harokopos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Molecular Epidemiology ◽  
Phylogenetic Analyses ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

AbstractMolecular epidemiology has provided an additive value to traditional public health tools by identifying SARS-CoV-2 clusters, or providing evidence that clusters based on virus sequences and contact tracing are highly concordant. Our aim was to infer the levels of virus importation and to estimate the impact of public health measures related to travel restrictions to local transmission in Greece. Our phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses included 389 SARS-CoV-2 sequences collected during the first 7 months of the pandemic in Greece and a random collection in 5 replicates of 3,000 sequences sampled globally, as well as the best hits to our dataset identified by BLAST. Phylogenetic analyses revealed the presence of 70 genetically distinct viruses identified as independent introductions into Greece. The proportion of imported strains was 41%, 11.5%, and 8.8% during the three periods of sampling, namely, March (no travel restrictions), April to June (strict travel restrictions), and July to September (lifting of travel restrictions based on a thorough risk assessment), respectively. These findings reveal low levels of onward transmission from imported cases during summer and underscore the importance of targeted public health measures that can increase the safety of international travel during a pandemic.

scholarly journals Evolution of disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic: patterns and determinants

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Zhu ◽  
Blanca Gallego
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Time Lagged ◽  
The Impact

AbstractEpidemic models are being used by governments to inform public health strategies to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. They simulate potential scenarios by manipulating model parameters that control processes of disease transmission and recovery. However, the validity of these parameters is challenged by the uncertainty of the impact of public health interventions on disease transmission, and the forecasting accuracy of these models is rarely investigated during an outbreak. We fitted a stochastic transmission model on reported cases, recoveries and deaths associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection across 101 countries. The dynamics of disease transmission was represented in terms of the daily effective reproduction number ($$R_t$$ R t ). The relationship between public health interventions and $$R_t$$ R t was explored, firstly using a hierarchical clustering algorithm on initial $$R_t$$ R t patterns, and secondly computing the time-lagged cross correlation among the daily number of policies implemented, $$R_t$$ R t , and daily incidence counts in subsequent months. The impact of updating $$R_t$$ R t every time a prediction is made on the forecasting accuracy of the model was investigated. We identified 5 groups of countries with distinct transmission patterns during the first 6 months of the pandemic. Early adoption of social distancing measures and a shorter gap between interventions were associated with a reduction on the duration of outbreaks. The lagged correlation analysis revealed that increased policy volume was associated with lower future $$R_t$$ R t (75 days lag), while a lower $$R_t$$ R t was associated with lower future policy volume (102 days lag). Lastly, the outbreak prediction accuracy of the model using dynamically updated $$R_t$$ R t produced an average AUROC of 0.72 (0.708, 0.723) compared to 0.56 (0.555, 0.568) when $$R_t$$ R t was kept constant. Monitoring the evolution of $$R_t$$ R t during an epidemic is an important complementary piece of information to reported daily counts, recoveries and deaths, since it provides an early signal of the efficacy of containment measures. Using updated $$R_t$$ R t values produces significantly better predictions of future outbreaks. Our results found variation in the effect of early public health interventions on the evolution of $$R_t$$ R t over time and across countries, which could not be explained solely by the timing and number of the adopted interventions.

scholarly journals Emotional and Mental Wellbeing Following COVID-19 Public Health Measures on People Living With Dementia and Carers

2021 ◽  
pp. 089198872199681
Author(s):  
Kerry Hanna ◽  
Clarissa Giebel ◽  
Hilary Tetlow ◽  
Kym Ward ◽  
Justine Shenton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mental Health ◽  
Social Support ◽  
Support Services ◽  
Mental Wellbeing ◽  
Daily Lives ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Social Support Services ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Background: To date, there appears to be no evidence on the longer-term impacts caused by COVID-19 and its related public health restrictions on some of the most vulnerable in our societies. The aim of this research was to explore the change in impact of COVID-19 public health measures on the mental wellbeing of people living with dementia (PLWD) and unpaid carers. Method: Semi-structured, follow-up telephone interviews were conducted with PLWD and unpaid carers between June and July 2020. Participants were asked about their experiences of accessing social support services during the pandemic, and the impact of restrictions on their daily lives. Results: 20 interviews were conducted and thematically analyzed, which produced 3 primary themes concerning emotional responses and impact to mental health and wellbeing during the course of the pandemic: 1) Impact on mental health during lockdown, 2) Changes to mental health following easing of public health, and 3) The long-term effect of public health measures. Conclusions: The findings from this research shed light on the longer-term psychological impacts of the UK Government’s public health measures on PLWD and their carers. The loss of social support services was key in impacting this cohort mentally and emotionally, displaying a need for better psychological support, for both carers and PLWD.

scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 on the care of people living with noncommunicable diseases in low- and middle-income countries: an online survey of physicians and pharmacists in nine countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Bullen ◽  
Jessica McCormack ◽  
Amanda Calder ◽  
Varsha Parag ◽  
Kannan Subramaniam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
World Health ◽  
Noncommunicable Diseases ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Low And Middle Income

Abstract Background: The global COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted healthcare worldwide. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where people may have limited access to affordable quality care, the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to have a particularly adverse impact on the health and healthcare of individuals with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). A World Health Organization survey found that disruption of delivery of healthcare for NCDs was more significant in LMICs than in high-income countries. However, the study did not elicit insights into the day-to-day impacts of COVID-19 on healthcare by front-line healthcare workers (FLHCWs). Aim: To gain insights directly from FLHCWs working in countries with a high NCD burden, and thereby identify opportunities to improve the provision of healthcare during the current pandemic and in future healthcare emergencies. Methods: We recruited selected frontline healthcare workers (general practitioners, pharmacists, and other medical specialists) from nine countries to complete an online survey (n = 1347). Survey questions focused on the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on clinical practice and NCDs; barriers to clinical care during the pandemic; and innovative responses to the many challenges presented by the pandemic. Findings: The majority of FLHCWs responding to our survey reported that their care of patients had been impacted both adversely and positively by the public health measures imposed. Most FLHCs (95%) reported a deterioration in the mental health of their patients. Conclusions: Continuity of care for NCDs as part of pandemic preparedness is needed so that chronic conditions are not exacerbated by public health measures and the direct impacts of the pandemic.

scholarly journals Harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerardo Chowell ◽  
Sushma Dahal ◽  
Raquel Bono ◽  
Kenji Mizumoto
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

AbstractTo ensure the safe operation of schools, workplaces, nursing homes, and other businesses during COVID-19 pandemic there is an urgent need to develop cost-effective public health strategies. Here we focus on the cruise industry which was hit early by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 40 cruise ships reporting COVID-19 infections. We apply mathematical modeling to assess the impact of testing strategies together with social distancing protocols on the spread of the novel coronavirus during ocean cruises using an individual-level stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We model the contact network, the potential importation of cases arising during shore excursions, the temporal course of infectivity at the individual level, the effects of social distancing strategies, different testing scenarios characterized by the test’s sensitivity profile, and testing frequency. Our findings indicate that PCR testing at embarkation and daily testing of all individuals aboard, together with increased social distancing and other public health measures, should allow for rapid detection and isolation of COVID-19 infections and dramatically reducing the probability of onboard COVID-19 community spread. In contrast, relying only on PCR testing at embarkation would not be sufficient to avert outbreaks, even when implementing substantial levels of social distancing measures.

The complication of cyber manhunt: How cyber manhunt further complicated the ethical conflict between breaching the confidentiality and endangering the society in face of the COVID-19 pandemic (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yen-Chang Chen ◽  
Yen-Yuan Chen
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Personal Information ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Online Activity ◽  
Contact Investigation ◽  
The Impact

UNSTRUCTURED While health care and public health workers are working on measures to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, there is an unprecedentedly large number of people spending much more time indoors, and relying heavily on the Internet as their lifeline. What has been overlooked is the influence of the increasing online activities on public health issues. In this article, we pointed out how a large-scale online activity called cyber manhunt may threaten to offset the efficacy of contact tracing investigation, a public health intervention considered highly effective in limiting further transmission in the early stage of a highly contagious disease outbreak such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first section, we presented a case to show how personal information obtained from contact investigation and disclosed in part on the media provoked a vehement cyber manhunt. We then discussed the possible reasons why netizens collaborate to reveal anonymized personal information about contact investigation, and specify, from the perspective of public health and public health ethics, four problems of cyber manhunt, including the lack of legitimate public health goals, the concerns about privacy breach, the impact of misinformation, and social inequality. Based on our analysis, we concluded that more moral weight may be given to protecting one's confidentiality, especially in an era with the rapid advance of digital and information technologies.

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