scholarly journals Adaptive data-driven age and patch mixing in contact networks with recurrent mobility

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesse Knight ◽  
Huiting Ma ◽  
Amir Ghasemi ◽  
Mackenzie Hamilton ◽  
Kevin Brown ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Infectious Disease Transmission ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Mixing Patterns ◽  
Transmission Models

AbstractInfectious disease transmission models often stratify populations by age and geographic patches. Contact patterns between age groups and patches are key parameters in such models. Arenas et al. (2020) develop an approach to simulate contact patterns associated with recurrent mobility between patches, such as due to work, school, and other regular travel. Using their approach, mixing between patches is greater than mobility data alone would suggest, because individuals from patches A and B can form a contact if they meet in patch C. We build upon their approach to address three potential gaps that remain. First, our approach includes a distribution of contacts by age that is responsive to underlying age distribution of the mixing pool. Second, different age distributions by contact type are also maintained in our approach, such that changes to the numbers of different types of contacts are appropriately reflected in changes to the overall age mixing patterns. Finally, we introduce and distinguish between two mixing pools associated with each patch, with possible implications for the overall connectivity of the population: the home pool, in which contacts can only be formed with other individuals residing in the same patch; and the travel pool, in which contacts can be formed with some residents of, and any other visitors to the patch. We describe in detail the steps required to implement our approach, and present results of an example application.Graphical Abstract

scholarly journals Real-time tracking and prediction of COVID-19 infection using digital proxies of population mobility and mixing

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathy Leung ◽  
Joseph T Wu ◽  
Gabriel M Leung
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Physical Mixing ◽  
Real Time Tracking ◽  
Case Data ◽  
Transmission Models ◽  
New Framework

AbstractDigital proxies of human mobility and physical mixing have been used to monitor viral transmissibility and effectiveness of social distancing interventions in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We developed a new framework that parameterizes disease transmission models with age-specific digital mobility data. By fitting the model to case data in Hong Kong, we were able to accurately track the local effective reproduction number of COVID-19 in near real time (i.e. no longer constrained by the delay of around 9 days between infection and reporting of cases) which is essential for quick assessment of the effectiveness of interventions on reducing transmissibility. Our findings showed that accurate nowcast and forecast of COVID-19 epidemics can be obtained by integrating valid digital proxies of physical mixing into conventional epidemic models.

scholarly journals The spreading of SARS-CoV-2: Interage contacts and networks degree distribution

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0256036
Author(s):  
Lucas Sage ◽  
Marco Albertini ◽  
Stefani Scherer
Keyword(s):  
Degree Distribution ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Virus Propagation ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Simple Question ◽  
Italian Context ◽  
The Impact

Notable cross-country differences exist in the diffusion of the Covid-19 and in its lethality. Contact patterns in populations, and in particular intergenerational contacts, have been argued to be responsible for the most vulnerable, the elderly, getting infected more often and thus driving up mortality in some context, like in the southern European one. This paper asks a simple question: is it between whom contacts occur that matters or is it simply how many contacts people have? Due to the high number of confounding factors, it is extremely difficult to empirically assess the impact of single network features separately. This is why we rely on a simulation exercise in which we counterfactually manipulate single aspects of countries’ age distribution and network structures. We disentangle the contributions of the kind and of the number of contacts while holding constant the age structure. More precisely, we isolate the respective effects of inter-age contact patterns, degree distribution and clustering on the virus propagation across age groups. We use survey data on face-to-face contacts for Great Britain, Italy, and Germany, to reconstruct networks that mirror empirical contact patterns in these three countries. It turns out that the number of social contacts (degree distribution) largely accounts for the higher infection rates of the elderly in the Italian context, while differences in inter-age contacts patterns are only responsible for minor differences. This suggests that policies specifically targeting inter-age contacts would be little effective.

scholarly journals Eye Disorders in Bangladesh: A Hospital-based Descriptive Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Ali Hossain ◽  
Tania Akter Asa ◽  
Fazlul Huq ◽  
Mohammad Ali Moni
Keyword(s):  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Patient Age ◽  
Clinical Challenge ◽  
Eye Disorders ◽  
Patient Âgé ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Retinal Disorder

The incidence and treatment of common eye disorders in Bangladesh are poorly understood. This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of this clinical challenge to better enable the design of appropriate healthcare strategies.  The incidence and treatment of common eye disorders in Bangladesh are poorly understood. This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of this clinical challenge to better enable the design of appropriate healthcare strategies.  Different types of eye disorder data were collected from patients aged 1 to 96 years admitted for eye surgery from March 2016 to October 2016 (N = 2390) at the Bangladesh Eye Hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Patient age distribution and types of treatment received were analysed, and incidence rates calculated.  Patients (58% male) underwent a total of 43 different types of eye surgeries. Among the surgeries reported 32.8% were Avastin intravitreal injections, 25.5% were Phaco with IOL, 14.6% were retinal laser therapies, 7.5% were YAG Laser and 6.5% were VR surgery. It is notable that a higher number of people suffered in ocular, cataract and retinal disorder respectively among all the eye disorders. With increasing patient age, the number of eye disorder treatments increased and it reached to peak number in the age group 56-60 years, although numbers varied greatly across age groups.

scholarly journals Clinical, pathological and radiological correlative study of benign breast diseases in a tertiary care hospital

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (7) ◽  
pp. 2428
Author(s):  
Satyajit Samal ◽  
Phanindra Kumar Swain ◽  
Siddharth Pattanayak
Keyword(s):  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Nipple Discharge ◽  
Breast Disease ◽  
Breast Diseases ◽  
Care Hospital ◽  
Benign Breast Diseases ◽  
Triple Assessment ◽  
Different Types

Background: Study of pattern of benign breast disease is a challenge due to variants in occurrence and presentation in different age groups and different geographical areas. The objective was to study the pattern of benign breast diseases and its clinical, pathological and radiological correlation.Methods: This is a prospective study of females with benign breast diseases presenting to surgery department. This work was done for studying the age distribution, to evaluate the different types of benign diseases of the breast, their mode of clinical presentation, pathology, to evaluate the accuracy of different modes of triple assessment and various modes of management for different types of Benign Breast Diseases. Patients with obvious malignancy and males were excluded from the study.Results: A total of 200 females were included in the study. Fibroadenoma (55%) was the commonest diseases with presenting mostly at 20-24years of age. Clinical examination had accuracy of 88%, USG had accuracy of 77.3%, FNAC had 93% and mammography had 83.33% accuracy foe diagnosing benign breast diseases.Conclusions: Benign breast diseases are common problems of 2nd and 3rd decade in females and raises considerable fear of malignancy. The patients of BBDs generally present with one or more of these complaints-breast lump, breast pain or nipple discharge. All the patients with discrete breast lumps should undergo a triple assessment to make an early diagnosis.

scholarly journals Social Contact Patterns and Implications for Infectious Disease Transmission: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Contact Surveys

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andria Mousa ◽  
Peter Winskill ◽  
Oliver John Watson ◽  
Oliver Ratmann ◽  
Mélodie Monod ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
High Income ◽  
Respiratory Pathogens ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Contact Frequency

Background: Transmission of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 depends on patterns of contact and mixing across populations. Understanding this is crucial to predict pathogen spread and the effectiveness of control efforts. Most analyses of contact patterns to date have focussed on high-income settings. <br />Methods: Here, we conduct a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis of surveys carried out in low- and middle-income countries and compare patterns of contact in these settings to surveys previously carried out in high-income countries. Using individual-level data from 28,503 participants and 413,069 contacts across 27 surveys we explored how contact characteristics (number, location, duration and whether physical) vary across income settings.<br />Results: Contact rates declined with age in high- and upper-middle-income settings, but not in low-income settings, where adults aged 65+ made similar numbers of contacts as younger individuals and mixed with all age-groups. Across all settings, increasing household size was a key determinant of contact frequency and characteristics, but low-income settings were characterised by the largest, most intergenerational households. A higher proportion of contacts were made at home in low-income settings, and work/school contacts were more frequent in high-income strata. We also observed contrasting effects of gender across income-strata on the frequency, duration and type of contacts individuals made.<br />Conclusions: These differences in contact patterns between settings have material consequences for both spread of respiratory pathogens, as well as the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions.<br />Funding: This work is primarily being funded by joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and DFID (MR/R015600/1).

scholarly journals Minnesota Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Survey with Implications for Modelling of Infectious Disease Transmission and Control

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Audrey M. Dorélien ◽  
Alisha Simon ◽  
Sarah Hagge ◽  
Kathleen Thiede Call ◽  
Eva Enns ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Infectious Disease Transmission ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Mixing Patterns ◽  
And Control

scholarly journals Inferring high-resolution human mixing patterns for disease modeling

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dina Mistry ◽  
Maria Litvinova ◽  
Ana Pastore y Piontti ◽  
Matteo Chinazzi ◽  
Laura Fumanelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Disease Modeling ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Human Contact ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Data Driven Approach ◽  
Mixing Patterns ◽  
The Impact

AbstractMathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for realism in addressing complex public health questions is, however, calling for accurate models of the human contact patterns that govern the disease transmission processes. Here we present a data-driven approach to generate effective population-level contact matrices by using highly detailed macro (census) and micro (survey) data on key socio-demographic features. We produce age-stratified contact matrices for 35 countries, including 277 sub-national administratvie regions of 8 of those countries, covering approximately 3.5 billion people and reflecting the high degree of cultural and societal diversity of the focus countries. We use the derived contact matrices to model the spread of airborne infectious diseases and show that sub-national heterogeneities in human mixing patterns have a marked impact on epidemic indicators such as the reproduction number and overall attack rate of epidemics of the same etiology. The contact patterns derived here are made publicly available as a modeling tool to study the impact of socio-economic differences and demographic heterogeneities across populations on the epidemiology of infectious diseases.

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