scholarly journals Optimizing one-dose and two-dose cholera vaccine allocation in outbreak settings: A modeling study

Author(s):  
Tiffany Leung ◽  
Julia Eaton ◽  
Laura Matrajt

Background: A global stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was established in 2013 for use in outbreak response and are licensed as two-dose regimens. Vaccine availability, however, remains limited. Previous studies have found that a single dose of OCV may provide substantial protection against cholera. Methods: Using a mathematical model with two age groups paired with optimization algorithms, we determine the optimal vaccination strategy with one and two doses of vaccine to minimize cumulative overall infections, symptomatic infections, and deaths. We explore counterfactual vaccination scenarios in three distinct settings: Maela, the largest refugee camp in Thailand, with high in- and out-migration; N'Djamena, Chad, a densely populated region; and Haiti, where departments are connected by rivers and roads. Results: Over the short term under limited vaccine supply, the optimal strategies for all objectives prioritize one dose to the older age group (over five years old), irrespective of setting and level of vaccination coverage. As more vaccine becomes available, it is optimal to administer a second dose for long-term protection. With enough vaccine to cover the whole population with one dose, the optimal strategies can avert up to 30% to 90% of deaths and 36% to 92% of symptomatic infections across the three settings over one year. The one-dose optimal strategies can avert 1.2 to 1.8 times as many cases and deaths as a two-dose pro-rata strategy. Conclusions: In an outbreak setting, speedy vaccination campaigns with a single dose of OCV may avert more cases and deaths than a two-dose pro-rata campaign under a limited vaccine supply.

Author(s):  
James McCarty ◽  
Lisa Bedell ◽  
Paul-Andre de Lame ◽  
David Cassie ◽  
Michael Lock ◽  
...  

Vaccine ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (6) ◽  
pp. 833-840 ◽  
Author(s):  
James M. McCarty ◽  
Michael D. Lock ◽  
Kristin M. Hunt ◽  
Jakub K. Simon ◽  
Marc Gurwith

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Myron M. Levine ◽  
Wilbur H. Chen ◽  
James B. Kaper ◽  
Michael Lock ◽  
Lisa Danzig ◽  
...  

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilbur H. Chen ◽  
Richard N. Greenberg ◽  
Marcela F. Pasetti ◽  
Sofie Livio ◽  
Michael Lock ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTCurrently, no cholera vaccine is available for persons traveling from the United States to areas of high cholera transmission and who for reasons of occupation or host factors are at increased risk for development of the disease. A single-dose oral cholera vaccine with a rapid onset of protection would be particularly useful for such travelers and might also be an adjunct control measure for cholera outbreaks. The attenuatedVibrio choleraeO1 vaccine strain CVD 103-HgR harbors a 94% deletion of the cholera toxin A subunit gene (ctxA) and has a mercury resistance gene inserted in the gene encoding hemolysin A. We undertook a phase I randomized placebo-controlled two-site trial to assess the safety and immunogenicity of a preliminary formulation of CVD 103-HgR prepared from new master and working cell banks. Healthy young adults were randomized (5:1 vaccinees to placebo recipients) to receive a single oral dose of ∼4.4 × 108CFU of vaccine or a placebo. Blood serum vibriocidal and cholera toxin-specific IgG antibodies were measured before and 10, 14, and 28 days following vaccination or placebo. Excretion of the vaccine strain in the stool was assessed during the first week postvaccination. A total of 66 subjects were enrolled, comprising 55 vaccinees and 11 placebo recipients. The vaccine was well tolerated. The overall vibriocidal and anti-cholera toxin seroconversion rates were 89% and 57%, respectively. CVD 103-HgR is undergoing renewed manufacture for licensure in the United States under the auspices of PaxVax. Our data mimic those from previous commercial formulations that elicited vibriocidal antibody seroconversion (a correlate of protection) in ∼90% of vaccinees. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT01585181.)


2016 ◽  
Vol 375 (7) ◽  
pp. e12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew S. Azman ◽  
Francisco J. Luquero

2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (7) ◽  
pp. 584-589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adriana Cabrera ◽  
Jayne E. Lepage ◽  
Karyn M. Sullivan ◽  
Sheila M. Seed

MATEMATIKA ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-186
Author(s):  
Nur Idayu Ah Khaliludin ◽  
Zarina Mohd Khalid ◽  
Haliza Abd. Rahman

Life table is a table that shows mortality experience of a nation. However, in Malaysia, the information in this table is provided in the five-year age groups (abridged) instead of every one-year age. Hence, this study aims to estimate the one-year age mortality rates from the abridged mortality rates using several interpolation methods. We applied Kostaki method and the Akima spline method to five sets of Malaysian group mortality rates ranging from period of 2012 to 2016. The results were then compared with the one-year mortality rates. We found that the method by Akima is the best method for the Malaysian mortality experience as it gives the least minimum of sum of square errors. The method does not only provide a good fit but also, shows a smooth mortality curve.


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