scholarly journals Two viruses competition in the SIR model of epidemic spread: application to COVID-19

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey A Trigger ◽  
Alexander M. Ignatov
Keyword(s):  
Sir Model ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Over Time

The SIR model of the epidemic spread is used for consideration the problem of the competition of two viruses having different contagiousness. It is shown how the more contagious strain replaces over time the less contagious one. In particular the results can be applied to the current situation when the omicron strain appeared in population affected by the delta strain.

scholarly journals Impact of containment type on Covid-19 propagation in Morocco using the SIR model.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nada Lebkiri ◽  
Zakaria Abidli ◽  
Sara Jadda ◽  
Abdelrhani Mokhtari ◽  
Abdelmajid Soulaymani
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Study ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Medical Science ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Epidemiological Model ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
First Case ◽  
Over Time

Objective and mehtods: Our objective is to determine the containment effect on the spread of Covid 19 in Morocco. The methodology is based on an epidemiological study whose objective is to take stock of the current situation and to estimate the future spread of Covid-19 over time in Morocco. Several conditions were considered using the SIR epidemiological model for a better reliability of the results. During the study period from the appearance of the first case until 19 June 2020, Morocco reported 9074 cases of infections, 213 deaths with a lethality of 2.35% and a mortality of 6.04 per million inhabitants. Results and Conclusion: The results of the SIR model show a sudden increase in infections. The peak would be 4.4 million inhabitants or 12% of the total population under confined conditions. Selon ces résultats,Containment is one of the most effective methods of reducing the risk of infection. Bangladesh Journal of Medical Science Vol.19(0) 2020 p. S 58-S 65

scholarly journals Modeling quarantine during epidemics and mass-testing using drones

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonid Sedov ◽  
Alexander Krasnochub ◽  
Valentin Polishchuk
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equations ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Peak Number ◽  
Infected Population ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Over Time

We extend the classical SIR epidemic spread model by introducing the “quarantined” compartment. We solve (numerically) the differential equations that govern the extended model and quantify how quarantining “flattens the curve” for the proportion of infected population over time. Furthermore, we explore the potential of using drones to deliver tests, enabling mass-testing for the infection; we give a method to estimate the drone fleet needed to deliver the tests in a metropolitan area. Application of our models to COVID-19 spread in Sweden shows how the proposed methods could substantially decrease the peak number of infected people, almost without increasing the duration of the epidemic.

scholarly journals Epidemic spreading model in heterogeneous conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Andrey Viktorovich Podlazov
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Position ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Oscillatory Dynamics ◽  
Spreading Model ◽  
Multiple Contacts ◽  
The Social

I propose two modifications of the SIR model of the epidemic spread, taking into account the social and space heterogeneity of the population. Social hetero¬geneity associated with differences in the intensity of paired contacts between people qualitatively changes the basic reproductive number. Space heterogeneity associated with differences in the intensity of multiple contacts between people significantly shifts the equilibrium position, increases the characteristic times and leads to the emergence of oscillatory dynamics of finite duration.

scholarly journals REMOTE SENSING DATA AS BASIS FOR THE MODELLING AND REASSEMBLY OF DISMANTLED HERITAGE STRUCTURES

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-2/W15 ◽  
pp. 1187-1194 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Vincke ◽  
M. Bassier ◽  
R. de Lima Hernandez ◽  
I. Dejaeghere ◽  
K. Carbonez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Relative Position ◽  
3D Model ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Built Heritage ◽  
Digital Modelling ◽  
Position And Orientation ◽  
Remote Sensing Techniques ◽  
Over Time

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Remote sensing techniques are invaluable for the documentation and preservation of built heritage. The techniques facilitate fast documentation of highly complex heritage structures with improved accuracies. Furthermore they improve the degree of detail substantially. This is extremely useful for the restoration of collapsed elements or the reassembly of dismantled structures. These entities are often challenging to puzzle back together. Moreover, the differential settlements of the elements over time heavily influence the relative position and orientation of the remaining pieces, further complicating the reconstruction. Digital modelling solutions with a 3D model of the current situation as take-off, are desperately needed by the industry to tackle the present obstacles. In this work, a framework is proposed that facilitates a more accurate reassembly of dismantled heritage elements. It consists of three major phases starting with the accurate recording of the current situation as well as the preserved components. Subsequently, the new design is dititally modelled, reducing the necessary time for the reassembly of the structure, which is the last step in the rebuilding workflow. The presented framework allows for an efficient and comprehensible reconstruction of the structure. A key aspect in the approach is the detection of missing components and the estimation of their dimensions for the production of accurate replicas. The potential is showcased by means of two case studies on the reassembly of flying buttresses and rib vaults of the Saint-James church in Leuven, Belgium, which is currently undergoing major stabilisation works. The presented approach allows heritage experts to gain better oversight over their reassembly project and work more efficiently.</p>

scholarly journals Globalization: The Changing Views Of American College Students (2007 2010)

2011 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
K. Morris (Moshe) Speter
Keyword(s):  
College Students ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
The Future ◽  
Current Economic Situation ◽  
Future Situation ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Over Time

The attitudes of college students toward globalization and outsourcing are an important indicator of future leaders positions. Surveys conducted over the last four years provide an insight into the current situation and changes in attitudes over time. Today, there is a great deal (over 50%) of concern among college students about the positive value of globalization and support for laws to outlaw outsourcing. This is a reflection of the current economic situation and might change. With a large (82%) percentage of students still believing that the U.S. should embrace globalization, the future situation is yet to be determined.

scholarly journals Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. F. F. dos Santos ◽  
G. M. A. Almeida ◽  
F. A. B. F. de Moura
Keyword(s):  
Sir Model ◽  
Virus Propagation ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Time Required ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Official Data ◽  
Over Time

Abstract We study the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil based on official data available since March 22, 2020. The calculations are based on an adaptive susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model featuring dynamical recuperation and propagation rates and can reproduce the number of confirmed cases over time with less than $5\%$ error. Furthermore, it is possible to predict the epidemic progression in the near future and we go on to estimate the time required to stabilize the virus propagation. The model is also proved to be accurate for analyzing the epidemic dynamics in other countries.

scholarly journals Extension of a SIR model for modelling the propagation of Covid-19 in several countries.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Lavielle ◽  
Matthieu Faron ◽  
jeremie lefevre ◽  
Jean-David Zeitoun
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Early Evaluation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
High Level ◽  
Over Time

Background Several epidemiologic models have been published to forecast the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic yet there are still uncertainties regarding their accuracy. We report the main features of the development of a novel freely accessible model intended to urgently help researchers and decision makers to predict the evolution of the pandemic in their country. Methods and findings We built a SIR-type compartmental model with additional compartments and features. We made the hypothesis that the number of contagious individuals in the population was negligible as compared to the population size. We introduced a compartment D corresponding to the deceased patients and a compartment L representing the group of individuals who will die but who will not infect anybody (due to social or medical isolation). Our model integrated a time-dependent transmission rate, whose variations can be thought to be related to the public measures taken by each country and a cosine function to incorporate a periodic weekly component linked to the way in which numbers of cases and deaths are counted and reported, which can change from day to day. The model was able to accurately capture the different changes in the dynamics of the pandemic for nine different countries whatever the type of pandemic spread or containment measures. The model provided very accurate forecasts in the relatively short term (10 days). Conclusions In early evaluation of the performance of our model, we found a high level of accuracy between prediction and observed data, regardless of the country. The model should be used by the community to help public health decisions as we will refine it over time and further investigate its performance.

scholarly journals Рerfectionism of young people

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-198
Author(s):  
A. V. Berezovskii ◽  
I. M. Uliukin ◽  
E. S. Orlova
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Young People ◽  
Personality Trait ◽  
Self Esteem ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Maladaptive Behavior ◽  
Self Reliance ◽  
Potential Development ◽  
Stress At Work ◽  
Over Time

Аbstract. The current situation of the crisis state of various spheres of life of our compatriots makes such characteristics of a competitive individual as success, mobility, flexibility in decision making more and more popular. Perfectionism, previously studied as a personality trait responsible for the pursuit of excellence, is a state that can determine the course of thoughts and actions of a person, as well as change under the influence of circumstances or over time (since there is always the possibility of transition from one state to another, while that at any moment of being this or that state determines the further destiny of a person). Highlight perfectionist aspirations that are associated with the positive aspects of perfectionism, and perfectionist anxiety associated with maladaptive behavior. It is shown that only perfectionist anxiety has a direct correlation with perception of stress at work, while perfectionist aspirations do not have such a correlation. In adolescence, the pursuit of excellence is especially important, since at this time a hierarchy of values and authenticity (identity) are built, the search for ones place in life starts the activity of creating conditions for the realization of personal potential. Therefore, the main direction of medical and psychological support for young people is the formation of adequate self-esteem and self-reliance, which allows them to know the characteristics of their personality, receive feedback (both from peers and from socially significant individuals),work out their I in simulated conditions, and thereby increase the effectiveness of the psychological correction of non- adaptive forms of perfectionism, because the positive aspects of perfectionist attitudes are a potential development potential for young people one hundred.

scholarly journals PALAZZO DUCALE OF SABBIONETA ARCHITECTURAL SURVEY OF SOME DECORATED ROOMS

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-2/W9 ◽  
pp. 127-134
Author(s):  
A. Bianchi ◽  
M. Belloni
Keyword(s):  
Northern Italy ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Historical Background ◽  
Urban Fabric ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
New Town ◽  
Future Developments ◽  
World Heritage List ◽  
Architectural Survey ◽  
Over Time

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Sabbioneta is a small town situated in the province of Mantova, in northern Italy. Founded by Vespasiano Gonzaga Colonna in the XVI century, it constituted the capital of the Sabbioneta Ducat. His specific historical background and renaissance urban fabric made it enter into the UNESCO’s World Heritage list in 2008. Other than the economic and political consequences of this event, it shows the architectural importance of Sabbioneta and its great potential for future developments. Palazzo Ducale (Figure 1) was one of the first constructions of the new town. Acting as a ducal residence in its beginnings, its function has evolved over time until the current situation: an exposition space.</p>

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