scholarly journals An integrated three-layered foresight framework

foresight ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 250-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cornelis van Dorsser ◽  
Poonam Taneja
Keyword(s):  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Major Transitions ◽  
Meta Level ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Changing World

Purpose The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context. Design/methodology/approach The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights. Findings The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends. Research limitations/implications The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework. Practical implications The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments. Social implications The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers. Originality/value The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

Drifting the goals archetype: a systemic study

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virupaxi Bagodi ◽  
Biswajit Mahanty
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Systems Thinking ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Current Reality

PurposeManagerial decision-making is an area of interest to both academia and practitioners. Researchers found that managers often fail to manage complex decision-making tasks and system thinkers assert that generic structures known as systems archetypes help them to a great deal in handling such situations. In this paper, it is demonstrated that decision makers resort to lowering of goal (quick-fix) in order to resolve the gap between the goal and current reality in the “drifting the goals” systems archetype.Design/methodology/approachA real-life case study is taken up to highlight the pitfalls of “drifting the goals” systems archetype for a decision situation in the Indian two-wheeler industry. System dynamics modeling is made use of to obtain the results.FindingsThe decision makers fail to realize the pitfall of lowering the goal to resolve the gap between the goal and current reality. It is seen that, irrespective of current less-than-desirable performance, managers adopting corrective actions other than lowering of goals perform better in the long run. Further, it is demonstrated that extending the boundary and experimentation results in designing a better service system and setting benchmarks.Practical implicationsThe best possible way to avoid the pitfall is to hold the vision and not lower the long term goal. The managers must be aware of the pitfalls beforehand.Originality/valueSystems thinking is important in complex decision-making tasks. Managers need to embrace long-term perspective in decision-making. This paper demonstrates the value of systems thinking in terms of a case study on the “drifting the goals” systems archetype.

scholarly journals Proteorhodopsin Overproduction Enhances the Long-Term Viability of Escherichia coli

2019 ◽  
Vol 86 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yizhi Song ◽  
Michaël L. Cartron ◽  
Philip J. Jackson ◽  
Paul A. Davison ◽  
Mark J. Dickman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Raman Spectroscopy ◽  
Cell Membrane ◽  
Single Cell ◽  
Marine Bacteria ◽  
Membrane Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
E Coli ◽  
Wide Range

ABSTRACT Genes encoding the photoreactive protein proteorhodopsin (PR) have been found in a wide range of marine bacterial species, reflecting the significant contribution that PR makes to energy flux and carbon cycling in ocean ecosystems. PR can also confer advantages to enhance the ability of marine bacteria to survive periods of starvation. Here, we investigate the effect of heterologously produced PR on the viability of Escherichia coli. Quantitative mass spectrometry shows that E. coli, exogenously supplied with the retinal cofactor, assembles as many as 187,000 holo-PR molecules per cell, accounting for approximately 47% of the membrane area; even cells with no retinal synthesize ∼148,000 apo-PR molecules per cell. We show that populations of E. coli cells containing PR exhibit significantly extended viability over many weeks, and we use single-cell Raman spectroscopy (SCRS) to detect holo-PR in 9-month-old cells. SCRS shows that such cells, even incubated in the dark and therefore with inactive PR, maintain cellular levels of DNA and RNA and avoid deterioration of the cytoplasmic membrane, a likely basis for extended viability. The substantial proportion of the E. coli membrane required to accommodate high levels of PR likely fosters extensive intermolecular contacts, suggested to physically stabilize the cell membrane and impart a long-term benefit manifested as extended viability in the dark. We propose that marine bacteria could benefit similarly from a high PR content, with a stabilized cell membrane extending survival when those bacteria experience periods of severe nutrient or light limitation in the oceans. IMPORTANCE Proteorhodopsin (PR) is part of a diverse, abundant, and widespread superfamily of photoreactive proteins, the microbial rhodopsins. PR, a light-driven proton pump, enhances the ability of the marine bacterium Vibrio strain AND4 to survive and recover from periods of starvation, and heterologously produced PR extends the viability of nutrient-limited Shewanella oneidensis. We show that heterologously produced PR enhances the viability of E. coli cultures over long periods of several weeks and use single-cell Raman spectroscopy (SCRS) to detect PR in 9-month-old cells. We identify a densely packed and consequently stabilized cell membrane as the likely basis for extended viability. Similar considerations are suggested to apply to marine bacteria, for which high PR levels represent a significant investment in scarce metabolic resources. PR-stabilized cell membranes in marine bacteria are proposed to keep a population viable during extended periods of light or nutrient limitation, until conditions improve.

scholarly journals A biopsychosocial framework for recovery from COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (9/10) ◽  
pp. 1021-1039
Author(s):  
Kaz Stuart ◽  
Mark A. Faghy ◽  
Elaine Bidmead ◽  
Ruth Browning ◽  
Catriona Roberts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Living Arrangements ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Narrow Range ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThis paper proposes a biopsychosocial (BPS) analysis of COVID-19 experiences which enhances understanding of complex and interrelated factors and leads to the proposition of a BPS recovery framework.Design/methodology/approachOnline narrative research was used to explore people's experiences of COVID-19 and was conducted over a four-month period. The call was distributed via a short open-ended qualitative online survey advertised on social media platforms and 305 responses came from across England.FindingsThe findings illustrate people with a narrow range of BPS characteristics experienced over a wide range of BPS impacts which are nuanced, complex and dynamic. Left unaddressed these may create future adverse BPS characteristics. An integrated BPS framework for recovery is proposed to avoid such further negative outcomes from the pandemic.Research limitations/implicationsThe sample contained a bias in age, gender and living arrangements.Practical implicationsThe paper offers a clear framework to enable integrated holistic recovery/regrowth planning.Social implicationsUsing the framework would reduce social and health inequities which have been recently deepened by COVID-19 in the long-term.Originality/valueThe paper is original in its use of a BPS analytical framework.

Understanding the Climate-Sensitive Decisions and Information Needs of Freshwater Resource Managers in Hawaii

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 293-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa L. Finucane ◽  
Rachel Miller ◽  
L. Kati Corlew ◽  
Victoria W. Keener ◽  
Maxine Burkett ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Uncertain Information ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Freshwater Resources ◽  
Freshwater Resource ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Climate Literacy

Abstract Understanding how climate science can be useful in decisions about the management of freshwater resources requires knowledge of decision makers, their climate-sensitive decisions, and the context in which the decisions are being made. A mixed-methods study found that people managing freshwater resources in Hawaii are highly educated and experienced in diverse professions, they perceive climate change as posing a worrisome risk, and they would like to be better informed about how to adapt to climate change. Decision makers with higher climate literacy seem to be more comfortable dealing with uncertain information. Those with lower climate literacy seem to be more trusting of climate information from familiar sources. Freshwater managers in Hawaii make a wide range of climate-sensitive decisions. These decisions can be characterized on several key dimensions including purpose (optimization and evaluation), time horizon (short term and long term), level of information uncertainty (known, uncertain, deeply uncertain, and completely unknown), and information type (quantitative and qualitative). The climate information most relevant to decision makers includes vulnerability assessments incorporating long-term projections about temperature, rainfall distribution, storms, sea level rise, and streamflow changes at an island or statewide scale. The main barriers to using available climate information include insufficient staff time to locate the information and the lack of a clear legal mandate to use the information. Overall, the results suggest that an integrated and systematic approach is needed to determine where and when uncertain climate information is useful and how a larger set of organizational and individual variables affect decision making.

Much discussed, little conceptualized: supply chain volatility

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (8) ◽  
pp. 866-886 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Nitsche ◽  
Christian F. Durach
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Q Methodology ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Synthesis Process ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Moderating Variables ◽  
Meta Level ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose A conceptual framework of supply chain volatility (SCV) is developed to help researchers and practitioners converge their discussions and understandings on this vital phenomenon. Sources, dimensions and moderators of SCV are investigated and a conceptual framework is proposed. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach Data triangulation was performed through reviewing 2,789 peer-reviewed articles and conducting a group exercise with 23 practitioners. Consequently, 364 sources were identified. Through a structured synthesis process that built on the Q-methodology with multiple academics, a framework of meta-level sources, dimensions and moderators of SCV was developed. An additional on-site meeting with 17 practitioners was conducted aiming at delineating the dimensions by their effect on SCV. Findings The authors propose 20 meta-level sources that contribute to five distinct dimensions of SCV, proposing behavior of customers and decision makers as contextual moderating variables. A classification scheme consisting of three descriptive SCV-affecting characteristics is proposed to delineate the dimension’s effect on SCV: relative deviating impact, repetitiveness and influenceability. Results are summarized in 15 propositions. Research limitations/implications The paper extends knowledge on SCV and provides a coherent conceptualization of the phenomenon for future research. The proposed framework demands quantitative testing to derive more reliable conclusions. Practical implications The framework aims at reducing the gap between research and practice. It helps managers to understand researchers’ discussions and how to derive expedient implications from them. Originality/value It is the first study that systematically synthesizes widely spread literature in this field to derive a conceptual framework that seeks to explain SCV in a holistic way.

A new goal-directed benchmarking for supplier selection in the presence of undesirable outputs

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 314-328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Majid Azadi ◽  
Reza Farzipoor Saen ◽  
Kamyar Hosseinzadeh Zoroufchi
Keyword(s):  
Supplier Selection ◽  
Efficient Frontier ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Undesirable Outputs ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Organizational Goals ◽  
Monitoring Process ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
First Time

Purpose – In this paper, the authors extend the goal-directed benchmarking theory proposed by Stewart for benchmarking and selecting suppliers. This extension is in recognition of the fact that benchmarking for suppliers is more than a pure monitoring process and includes a component of future planning. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, the proposed model utilizes a goal programming structure to find points on the efficient frontier which are realistically attainable by suppliers in the presence of undesirable outputs, but at the same time achieving a closer method to long-term organizational goals (as distinct from the local performance of individual suppliers). Findings – The contributions of the current paper are as follows: the proposed model considers undesirable outputs in the context of goal-directed benchmarking. The proposed model does not demand weights from the decision maker. The proposed model can be easily computerized, enabling it to serve as a decision making tool to assist decision makers. For the first time, the proposed model is applied for the supplier selection and benchmarking. Originality/value – To the best of knowledge of the authors, there is not any reference that discusses supplier selection problem and benchmarking in the presence of undesirable outputs in the context of goal-directed benchmarking.

Colleague curriculum wins bronze for Barclays

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 15-16
Keyword(s):  
Blended Learning ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Learning Program ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – Describes a blended-learning program at Barclays bank that won bronze in the 2015 Learning Awards. Design/methodology/approach – Examines the reasons for the program, the form it takes and the results it is achieving. Findings – Explains that the program, named Colleague Curriculum, is designed to create a learner-led blend of learning for more than 135,000 Barclays employees. Practical implications – Highlights the program’s flexibility, which helps to ensure that it is suitable for a wide range of employee skills and cultures. Social implications – Sites the learning program in the context of Barclays’ Transform program, a long-term journey of change which aims to make the bank the partner of choice for all its stakeholders. Originality/value – Reveals how technology can help to transform an organization’s learning.

Election result will tone down Turkey's foreign policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Turkish Foreign Policy ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
Political Clout ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Policy Shifts

Subject The June 7 elections' consequences for Turkish foreign policy. Significance The elections are the first setback since 2002 for the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has dominated and in many ways transformed Turkish foreign policy. The AKP's unquestioned prowess in domestic politics had rendered foreign policy almost a non-issue, with courses of action being determined by the party alone, even when the opposition voiced criticism. The elections have undermined AKP's grip on power and will lead to a weaker coalition, minority government or period of acute political uncertainty, if not instability, defined by possible early elections by late-2015. Impacts Turkey will adopt a more 'toned-down' discourse and policy on such divisive issues domestically as the Syrian civil war. Major policy shifts in long-term trends, including Turkey's EU, US and Russian relationships, are unlikely. Erdogan will probably adopt a 'softer' discourse with the West, moderating his former confrontational attitude. Potential for tensions exist with the increasing political clout and territorial reach of the Syrian Kurdish militia.

Gulf rivals will likely increase US lobbying efforts

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Influence ◽  
Gulf States

Subject Gulf states lobbying in the United States. Significance The Gulf states have long been among the largest spenders on lobbying initiatives in the United States, promoting their economic interests and perspectives on regional geopolitics. This has intensified since 2017 as the Qatar dispute has polarised the region and both sides have sought to win over crucial US decision-makers. These efforts have often backfired and drawn accusations of improper behaviour that could damage bilateral relationships and may affect US domestic politics. Impacts Others considering influencing US policy will look carefully at the successes but also the controversies this lobbying has generated. There is a risk of long-term damage to some Gulf-US relationships amid growing suspicion of foreign influence. Robert Mueller’s probe into the Trump campaign and Russia, which may conclude this year, may also implicate some Gulf states.

scholarly journals A “new” response to anti-social behaviour: early reflections on the Anti-Social Behaviour, Crime and Policing Act 2014

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 161-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Hopkins-Burke ◽  
Sean Creaney
Keyword(s):  
Social Behaviour ◽  
Conceptual Analysis ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Children And Young People ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Local Decision Makers ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to reflect on the “new” approach to tackling anti-social behaviour outlined in the Anti-Social Behaviour, Crime and Policing Act 2014. Despite it being difficult to ascertain whether such measures will be more inclusive and appropriate than those previously introduced – certainly at this early stage – the authors set out to evaluate the strengths, limitations and challenges of this “new” agenda and in doing so drawing upon the propositions insights from radical moral communitarianism in order to inform the discussion. Design/methodology/approach – The paper takes the form of a conceptual analysis of government policy. The authors draw on the work of a number of key academics and commentators to enhance the discussion. Findings – In many respects, the authors have rehearsed some familiar lines of argument and analysis. Indeed, many of New Labour's anti-social behaviour measures were in many cases counterproductive, particularly in the case of children and young people invariably increasing the likelihood of offending rather than curtailing it. Understanding this, the authors propose that it would appear logical where at all possible to deal with anti-social behaviour informally, that is, outside the formal anti-social behaviour framework and through the comprehensive balanced intervention proposed from a radical moral communitarian perspective which seeks to avoid formal criminalisation except as a last resort. With regard to the “new” anti-social behaviour measures the authors argue that rather than punishing the actions as a contempt of court practitioners need to devise suitable, more appropriate ways of dealing with the matter before them. The Anti-Social Behaviour, Crime and Policing Act (2014) provides practitioners with the space to do this particularly with the process being streamlined and much of the previous bureaucracy removed. Practical implications – By focusing on the introduction of the “new” anti-social behaviour measures the paper will be of use to local decision makers (i.e. Youth Offending Team practitioners, Police and Crime Commissioners, and Directors of Children's Services). The paper highlights some potential issues and ambiguities that practitioners working within the new anti-social behaviour framework may face. Originality/value – The authors set out to critically reflect on the “new” powers set out in the recent Anti-Social Behaviour, Crime and Policing Act (2014). Nevertheless, the authors are not offering the paper as an alternative blueprint for dealing with anti-social behaviour but rather seeking to provoke further discussion on some of the potential issues and ambiguities the authors have identified within the new legislation. At the same time, the authors incorporate insights from the radical moral communitarian perspective which promotes a fairer, more equal world, based on mutual respect between all citizens, founded on the notion of commitment to and involvement in society.

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