Kazakhstan's early election looks to cement Nazarbayev

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
Northern Kazakhstan ◽  
The Eu

Significance The Central Electoral Commission has registered incumbent President Nursultan Nazarbayev as the candidate of the ruling NurOtan party. His candidacy is supported by two others, Ak Zhol and the Party of Patriots. The two other officially registered candidates are Turgun Syzdykov of the Communist People's Party of Kazakhstan, and the head of the Trade Union Federation, Abelgazi Kussainov (independent). The main unofficial reason for holding the election early is that Astana is worried about the economy and also needs to secure a stable political base in order to ward off any Russian adventurism in northern Kazakhstan. Impacts Nazarbayev's victory will further delay the succession, compounding long-term uncertainty about stability after his death. Nazarbayev will look to maintain close ties with Russia, but China and the EU will be his main economic partners. Following re-election, Nazarbayev will focus on economic issues and look to continue cutting spending.

Migrants help keep Central European populists in power

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central European ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Eu

Subject Populists' exploitation of the refugee crisis in Central Europe. Significance Support for populist parties has risen after last year's refugee crisis across the EU, but nowhere have they been as successful as in Central Europe (CE). Peddling migrant fears has secured the re-election of Robert Fico's Smer (Slovakia) and the revival of Viktor Orban's Fidesz (Hungary) from a post-election popularity slump. On the back of the migration tide, populists are transforming CE's political trajectory. Impacts A united CE front will gain prominence at the EU, stoking tensions with Berlin on migration policy and the future of EU integration. The strengthened legitimacy of illiberal positions on migration will foster the emergence of imitators elsewhere in Europe. The chance of an EU-level, long-term solution to the refugee crisis will remain slim in the medium term.

French trade union rivalry is likely to intensify

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Movement ◽  
Trade Union ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject French trade unions. Significance French trade unions have found themselves at the centre of a continuing and powerful social movement against the labour reform proposed by the government under President Francois Hollande and Prime Minister Manuel Valls. However, the strong opposition is not just driven by the content of the reform but also by the power struggle among trade unions which are now split into 'reformist' and 'non-reformist' camps. Impacts The division between trade unions is likely to lead to a radicalisation of the non-reformist unions with violent strikes continuing. The government will be held responsible for the lock-down, which will weaken Hollande's re-election bid further. The labour reform dispute could relegitimise non-reformist trade unions in the long term, complicating future reform attempts.

Finland's reforms may end period of stagnation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
One Year ◽  
Pension Age ◽  
The Eu

Subject Finland's economy. Significance The Finnish economy contracted from 2012 to 2014 and grew by only 0.5% last year. It has been facing both structural and cyclical headwinds and since 2010 three different governments have been unable to jump-start it. However, the current one-year-old Finnish government has staked much of its political capital on various reforms which are expected to lead to a resumption of growth and a slower increase in public debt. Impacts Due to demographic trends, Finland's long-term growth potential is estimated to be below 2%. Prolonged economic stagnation in the EU and Russia is likely to depress export and GDP growth. The pension age in Finland will increase automatically as life expectancy rises, which may be a model for other European countries.

Iran could sunder Hungary-Israel illiberal alliance

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Democratic Institutions ◽  
Small Country ◽  
Content Type ◽  
United Front ◽  
The Eu

Subject Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s visit to Jerusalem. Significance Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's July 18-20 visit to Jerusalem invited a great deal of controversy, largely related to his approach to Hungary’s interwar history and erosion of democratic institutions. An ideological affinity and common strategic interests support a warm long-term relationship. Impacts Following the examples of Austria, Poland and Hungary, other CE countries will strengthen their relationship with Israel. Common positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will become increasingly difficult to forge at international forums, including the EU. The profiles of small-country leaders with an illiberal outlook will rise as they show a united front on more issues.

Far-right concerns could harm Austria’s coalition

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Member State ◽  
State Autonomy ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Government Relations ◽  
Anti Semitism ◽  
Tax Reduction ◽  
Share Information ◽  
The Eu

Subject Austrian intra-government relations. Significance Austria’s ruling coalition enjoys strong and stable support for its stance on immigration and tax reduction and its support for greater member-state autonomy within the EU. However, controversial immigration proposals from the Austrian Freedom Party (FPOe), the far-right junior partner in the coalition, have provoked a backlash from Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s Austrian People’s Party (OeVP). He is now under pressure to crack down on some FPOe officials because of apparent indirect links to the Christchurch mosque killer. Impacts Austria’s relationship with Israel will remain uneasy, as Israel associates the FPOe with anti-Semitism. Austria is highly unlikely to join the UN migration pact while the FPOe is in government. Foreign intelligence agencies will be reluctant to share information with Austria as the FPOe controls the defence and interior ministries.

Economic woes to drive Greenland's hydrocarbons effort

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Oil And Gas Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
Opening Up ◽  
The Eu

Subject Prospects for the hydrocarbons sector under the new government Significance After three years of GDP contraction, a new government is pursuing increased foreign investment in hydrocarbons, to boost employment and growth and to repair the budget. In the long term, Greenland is likely to emerge as an international shipping, mining and hydrocarbons centre. For now, the fall in the international oil price has seen oil exploration stop. The wish for economic development is leading a new generation of Greenlandic politicians to embark on re-integration with the EU, where a ban on seal products is the greatest obstacle to closer ties. Impacts Infrastructure and climate challenges mean that full-scale oil and gas production is at least 15-20 years away. Emerging Greenland-China economic ties may create a new alignment in the opening up of the Arctic. A relaxation of the EU seal products ban would ease negotiations on Greenland's further integration with the bloc. Enhanced EU-Greenland ties could extend the EU's role in the Arctic.

Australian PM challenge will hinder policy agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Housing Bubbles ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Significance Although a victory in the short term for Abbott, the narrow margin will only intensify doubts about his long-term prospects as party leader and as prime minister. The challenge continues a trend of instability across Australia's main political parties. The country is poised to enter a record 25th year of uninterrupted economic growth, yet has changed prime minister four times since 2007. Impacts Australia will remain one of the most robust developed economies throughout 2015, with growth rates far above those of the EU. The Reserve Bank's decision to cut interest rates indicates that there are worries of the impact of the China-induced mining slowdown. Concerns in state capitals about housing bubbles will grow and may be an issue in the next federal election.

NATO disunity may undermine Warsaw summit agenda

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Partner Status ◽  
Strong Signal ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Political Unity ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
Eastern Border ◽  
The Eu

Significance The Warsaw summit was held as the alliance seeks to develop a long-term posture for the turbulent security environment that has developed in and around Europe over the last five years. Policymakers in many NATO capitals saw the summit as a chance for the alliance to clarify its mission in light of security challenges along its eastern border and the Mediterranean rim. Given the United Kingdom's recent vote in favour of leaving the EU ('Brexit'), the summit also generated a sense of urgency in sending a strong signal of European political unity. Impacts Security relationships are likely to trump US concerns about internal constitutional arrangements in Poland and Turkey. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine will not be able to count on their NATO partner status in the event of a confrontation with Russia. US presidential candidate Donald Trump's call for significant NATO restructuring will find few natural allies in Washington or abroad.

Left-wing alliance changes Spain's political landscape

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Socialist Party ◽  
Stability And Growth Pact ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Growth Pact ◽  
Strong Performance ◽  
The Eu

Significance While not expected to win, it will likely overtake the Socialist Party (PSOE). This development will have serious consequences for the PSOE, which faces a dilemma over its coalition preferences and the prospect of long-term decline. Impacts A strong performance by Unidos Podemos will fuel market concerns about the eventual election of a radical anti-austerity government. The prospect of a weak government, unable to meet the targets of the EU Stability and Growth Pact, will cause international unease. Both Rajoy and PSOE leader Pedro Sanchez may be replaced by their parties after the election, adding to uncertainty.

Poland-EU constitutional crisis will not end soon

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Commission ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Constitutional Tribunal ◽  
The Government ◽  
Polish Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject European Commission concerns about the rule of law in Poland. Significance The Commission has sent a formal Opinion to the Polish government, activating the first stage in the EU's 'Rule of Law Framework'. It expresses concerns about respect for the rule of law in Poland (a fundamental founding value of the EU), and in particular about the Polish government's handling of the crisis over the Constitutional Tribunal (TK, for Trybunał Konstytucyjny) Impacts Poland's EU position is likely to suffer as a result of the dispute, making it more difficult for it to achieve other political goals. Polish politics will remain unsettled and polarised, with the opposition using the Commission's Opinion to challenge the government. Legal uncertainty may translate into lower investment by individuals and enterprises dampening economic growth in the medium-to-long term.

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