Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

Watershed Thai election is unlikely

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Appeal ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance The next election will be the first since the military, led by then general, now Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, deposed Yingluck Shinawatra’s administration in May 2014. Impacts The prime minister’s Washington visit later this month will be portrayed as a pre-election display of foreign policy strength. The government will increase public investment for the remainder of this year, at least. This, it hopes, will maintain economic momentum, and strengthen the junta’s popular appeal. The post-election possibility of fresh political interventions by the military will concern investors.

Support for Thai government will be heavily strained

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Thai Government ◽  
Currency Management ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thai government's clampdown on the opposition and struggle with various crises. Significance The Constitutional Court last week dissolved the opposition Future Forward Party for receiving an illegal loan from its leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit. Future Forward had in recent months emerged as a vigorous opponent of the military-backed government. Army Chief Apirat Kongsompong and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha may be relieved to be rid of the party, but there is unlikely to be any let-up in opposition pressure as the administration grapples with crises relating to military corruption, water shortage and infectious disease. Impacts The military will try to help the government manage an approaching drought and the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus. The central bank will step up currency management to keep Thai exports as competitive as possible amid the economic downturn. Erstwhile Future Forward MPs may form a new opposition party.

Thailand’s Prayut may keep power in a civilian regime

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
National Council ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thailand's long-delayed election. Significance More than 40 new political parties have been registered in Thailand since March 2, and established parties will be allowed to begin registering members on April 1, as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) begin a process of preparing for a long-delayed general election. The 2017 constitution initiated by the NCPO allows the (to be re-established) House of Representatives to select an ‘outsider’ as prime minister if it is unable to decide on a party-affiliated figure. Impacts Persistent election delays will not affect Thailand’s current economic recovery. Despite mounting political pressure on the government to commit to a poll, anti-government protests will not grow. Improving relations with the United States could insulate the government from EU pressure on delayed elections.

India’s sexual violence will cost ruling party support

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Judicial Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sexual Crimes ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Civil Society Organisations ◽  
Parliamentary Debate ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Government ◽  
Party Support ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Sexial violence in India. Significance At a recent parliamentary debate over a no-confidence motion against the government, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) began its defence by focusing on its achievements in protecting women. India has seen a recent surge in reports of high-profile, violent sexual crimes. Modi will be seeking a second term in the general election due in early 2019. Impacts Modi will face protests over India’s treatment of women especially during his trips to Western countries. Civil society organisations will intensify calls for better training and scrutiny of police. Human rights groups will urge India to reject the death penalty, encouraging judicial reform instead.

Sierra Leone opposition divisions bolster ruling party

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Mining Law ◽  
Hospitality Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Tourism And Hospitality ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The APC is struggling to present a united front against the government. President Julius Maada Bio’s administration is seeking to make headway on corruption cases, mining law revisions and economic policy to shore up its support ahead of elections in early 2023. Impacts The ACC’s inability to secure high-profile convictions may bolster former President Ernest Bai Koroma's faction within the APC. The tourism and hospitality sector will be boosted by the removal of state of emergency restrictions. Higher commodity prices will facilitate government efforts to increase mining output.

Tunisia’s anti-corruption drive could be divisive

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Transition ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Emergency Powers ◽  
The Government

Subject Anti-corruption campaign. Significance Tunisian Prime Minister Youssef Chahed is pursuing a high-profile campaign against corruption, which has won him public support but also raised questions about his reliance on emergency powers. Anger over corruption has become widespread, and this campaign has improved Chahed’s standing at a time when his coalition government was criticised for ineffectiveness. Impacts Despite fractures within the ruling coalition, the alliance between Nidaa Tounes and Ennahda is in both parties’ interests and will endure. The democratic transition is making progress, but the government has only piecemeal remedies to counter widespread socio-economic protests. Coming municipal elections could restore some of the influence of Islamist party Ennahda.

Pakistan's Sharif is in deep trouble

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Money Laundering ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Investigation ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Deep Trouble ◽  
Tax Fraud ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif faces disqualification. Significance Amid the fallout from the ‘Panamagate’ scandal in 2016, the Supreme Court in April appointed a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to investigate accusations of tax fraud and money laundering against Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. With the court now having examined the report of the JIT, pressure is rising on Sharif and the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Impacts The government may struggle to respond to demands relating to the Trump administration's Afghan review. Pakistan under Khan would be neutral between Saudi Arabia and Iran; Sharif has leant towards the Saudis. India-Pakistan ties may deteriorate, with the military less keen on improving relations.

Cracks will extend within Ecuador’s ruling party

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Culture ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Wealth Creation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The People ◽  
Personal Wealth ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Friction within Ecuador’s ruling party Significance Tensions within Ecuador's ruling party, Alianza Pais, came to the surface on August 3 when President Lenin Moreno stripped Vice President Jorge Glas of his official functions within government. The move came after Glas wrote a public letter criticising Moreno, and fresh evidence emerged of corruption within the government of former President Rafael Correa. The conflict within the government reflects wider divisions within Alianza Pais as the party adjusts to a change in leadership and the Moreno administration grapples with the negative legacies of the previous administration. Impacts High profile infighting will leave the government open to accusations of neglecting its responsibilities to the people. Correa will exploit divisions within the government and party to increase his chances of returning to power. Moreno faces the deeper challenge of tackling a political culture that views government posts as a platform for personal wealth creation.

Pakistan's current account pressures may rise

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Banking System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Difficulties ◽  
The Government ◽  
Support Fund ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Pakistan's ruling party seeking economic stability. Significance After former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's disqualification and subsequent resignation in July, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi heads the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government. The ruling party is under pressure from the opposition, and seeks economic stability ahead of the national elections due in 2018. Impacts Pakistan may experience further financial difficulties if the United States discontinues the Coalition Support Fund. If the government opts for more borrowing from the central bank than the banking system, inflation will increase. Pakistan may seek another IMF loan.

Contradictions risk undermining Mexico crime strategy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crime Prevention ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Military perceptions. Significance Residents of Acajete, Puebla, on September 9 reportedly attacked a group of soldiers guarding a warehouse that contained stolen train cargo. As ordered, the armed forces initially refused to retaliate, but the standoff eventually led President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) to authorise a proportional response. The following day the defence ministry (SEDENA) said any further incidents of this nature would be met with force. Similar attacks have nevertheless taken place in several states since. Impacts Negative rhetoric about the security forces could foster tensions between the government and the military if the latter feel unsupported. Failure to develop effective civilian police forces to work with communities and gather local intelligence will hinder crime prevention. Further deterioration of the security situation may hit AMLO’s popularity, as he will increasingly be unable to blame predecessors.

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