ADIZ will not follow Chinese runway in South China Sea

Subject A potential Chinese ADIZ in the South China Sea. Significance Satellite images taken June 28 show that China has nearly completed construction of a 3-kilometre airstrip on Fiery Cross Reef in the disputed Spratly islands. US and Philippine officials say China could soon base fighter jets on the island for enforcing an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in the South China Sea, like the one Beijing declared, with much controversy, over the East China Sea in November 2013. Impacts China is unlikely to declare an ADIZ over territory under the actual control of other states. An ADIZ that covers only part of the South China Sea would be more practicable, but would highlight the limitations of China's capabilities. Declaring an ADIZ would increase the involvement of non-claimant states, especially the United States, an outcome China wants to avoid.

Significance However, China's navy already has an operational sea-based nuclear deterrent based on Hainan Island. The deployment of nuclear-armed submarines, and their need to reach the mid-Pacific to threaten the continental United States, makes the South China Sea an arena not just of maritime disputes but of US-China military rivalry. Impacts The strategic importance of the Philippines, Taiwan and Singapore to the United States will increase. A new defence agreement with the Philippines will, as of last month, support US military activities in the area. Washington will encourage greater Japanese involvement in the South China Sea; as long as Shinzo Abe is prime minister, Japan will oblige.


Subject The South China Sea dispute. Significance China and the United States increased their military activities in the South China Sea in January and February, with US ‘freedom of navigation operations’ (FONOPs) pushing back on Chinese maritime jurisdictional claims in the area. The Philippines before June 2016 contested China’s expansive claims. Increased rivalry between Beijing and Washington in South-east Asia raises the risk of a dangerous naval confrontation. Impacts The Philippines will continue to solicit investment from China. China is unlikely to undertake actions in the South China Sea that would seriously irk the Philippines. South-east Asian countries will emphasise the importance of the region not becoming a theatre for China-US rivalry.


Significance South-east Asian leaders will discuss the South China Sea dispute, the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar and regional trade. ASEAN’s eight dialogue partners, including the United States and China, will be present at the talks. Impacts An eventual Code of Conduct for the South China Sea is likely to include an air code recently agreed by ASEAN defence ministers. Myanmar could face EU trade sanctions over the Rohingya crisis. ASEAN is likely to boost cooperation over counterterrorism, cybersecurity and climate change.


Subject ASEAN-US defence and security ties outlook. Significance The 'Shangri-La Dialogue' held in Singapore between May 29 and 31 evidenced the growing China-US divide over the South China Sea, particularly over China's island-building activities. The frictions will be revisited at the ASEAN Regional Forum, in Malaysia on June 10. Burgeoning tensions in the South China Sea increase pressure on South-east Asian countries, and ASEAN, to maintain equilibrium in relations with China and the United States as individual ASEAN countries pursue their own maritime interests. Impacts The Philippines will seek further US defence support, and develop security ties with Vietnam and Japan. Singapore will push for a South China Sea code of conduct, but China is unlikely to consent to a binding code. US Pacific Command leadership will provide some US strategy continuity in the Asia-Pacific region.


Significance Duterte’s initial decision to scrap the pact was in line with his personal antipathy towards the United States, and his wish for better ties with Washington’s rival, Beijing, despite Philippine-Chinese tensions regarding the South China Sea. Separately, the Philippines and Japan held their first-ever combined air force exercise earlier this month. Impacts The Philippines will strengthen defence ties with India and South Korea as well as Japan. US vaccine supplies should help the Philippines speed up its COVID-19 inoculation programme. Duterte will continue to encourage investment from China and downplay Beijing’s assertiveness in the South China Sea.


Subject Risk of armed conflict in the South China Sea. Significance US patrols close to Chinese installations in the South China Sea, in the context of growing willingness among China, Vietnam and the Philippines to assert maritime claims by force, raise fears of lethal clashes. These have occurred before, between China and Vietnam in 1974 and 1988, leading respectively to around 70 and 60 deaths. Impacts Neither China's rival claimants nor the United States are likely to risk physically disrupting China's island-building activities. Unintended conflict is more likely than calculated use of force. Conflict between China and Vietnam is the most likely conflict scenario. Washington's need to preserve credibility as a treaty ally and security guarantor would force it to intervene in conflicts.


Subject India's relations with its 'Quad' partners. Significance India appears to be moving towards a four-country defence and security axis -- ‘the Quad’ -- with the United States, Japan and Australia. The chiefs of the four countries' navies shared a panel in Delhi in January, with the discussion focusing on Chinese activities across a region that Washington now describes as the ‘Indo-Pacific’. Impacts Russia will continue to be a key arms supplier to India even as Delhi deepens defence relations with Washington. Former Foreign Secretary Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will likely become a special envoy to China. Australia and Japan will sign an agreement for their militaries to conduct joint drills in each other’s countries. Further US ‘freedom of navigation’ operations in the South China Sea would antagonise Beijing.


SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 215824402110312
Author(s):  
Victor Alexandre G. Teixeira

Constantly analyzed in scientific, theoretical, and empirical studies, the “ Asian Mediterranean” region has received renewed attention as a consequence of the rise of China. China’s emergence combines its strong economic dynamic with increased confidence, positioning it as a potential regional hegemony. On that conceptual basis, this study aims to answer whether a power transition has already occurred in the South China Sea and how the process of a regional hegemonic transition took place. Through an examination of the instruments used by the United States and China to exercise power, articulated with the power transition theory, it establishes that a transition in the South China Sea dispute could have already occurred. However, the study disclaims that Beijing’s evolution and sudden change of behavior aim to overthrow the U.S. global leadership but rather intends to reclaim its position of regional hegemony.


2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (4) ◽  
pp. 1207-1212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Li ◽  
Qi-hang Xu ◽  
Xiao-tian Wang ◽  
Hou-wen Lin ◽  
Yan-hua Lu

A novel marine actinomycete, designated LHW63021T, was isolated from a marine sponge, genus Craniella, collected in the South China Sea. A polyphasic approach was applied to characterize the taxonomic position of this strain. The strain was found to have scarce aerial mycelia that differentiated into spore chains. The cell-wall hydrolysates contained meso-diaminopimelic acid as the diagnostic diamino acid. Glucose, galactose, mannose and madurose were found in the whole-cell hydrolysates. The dominant polar lipids were phosphatidylinositol and diphosphatidylglycerol. MK-9(H6) and MK-9(H8) were the predominant menaquinones. The major fatty acids were iso-C16 : 0, iso-C18 : 0, 10-methyl C17 : 0 and C18 : 1 ω9c. The DNA G+C content based on the draft genome sequence was 72.0 mol%. 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis indicated that strain LHW63021T was a member of the genus Actinomadura and had the highest similarity to Actinomadura echinospora DSM 43163T (97.3 %). Phylogenetic trees supported their close relationship. The average nucleotide identity and digital DNA–DNA hybridization values between the whole genome sequences of strain LHW63021T and A. echinospora DSM 43163T were 79.13 and 23.20 %, respectively. The evidence from the polyphasic study shows that strain LHW63021T represents a novel species of the genus Actinomadura , for which the name Actinomadura craniellae sp. nov. is proposed. The type strain is LHW63021T (=DSM 106125T=CCTCC AA 2018015T).


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