If Turkey's parties form a coalition, it may be brief

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
National Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The former ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is regaining the politcal ascendancy, with its sights focused on early elections. It wants a caretaker government until then. Its best chance of forming one looks like a deal with the Republican People's Party (CHP), whose top echelons are eager for a spell in government after years in the wilderness. Impacts A second general election later this year, or perhaps next, is more likely than a durable coalition. If there are fresh elections, AKP could regain its overall working majority, though probably only by a narrow margin. Opposition parties' inability to cooperate to form an alternative government means they will have little impact on national policies. President Erdogan will continue ruling as de facto executive president without too much regard for legal or constitutional detail. With no sign of the two-thirds majority needed to change the system, Erdogan's position is over-extended and potentially vulnerable.

Congress party will likely lead 2019 anti-Modi front

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Madhya Pradesh ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Party President Rahul Gandhi’s Congress displaced the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from power in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, all in the nationally ruling party’s ‘Hindu-Hindi’ heartland and with large rural constituencies. In recent months, opposition parties including Congress have been in talks about possibly forming a broad anti-BJP front to challenge Modi in the general election, likely in April or May next year. Impacts More farmer-led protests are likely ahead of the general election. Outbreaks of Hindu-Muslim violence are likely, especially in the north and west. Modi’s government will press the Reserve Bank of India to release more reserves and cut rates, hoping to boost growth.

Austrian election could herald radical change

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Radical Change ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
General Election ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Force ◽  
People's Party ◽  
The Status ◽  
To Come

Subject Profile of Sebastian Kurz. Significance Rising political star Sebastian Kurz is using his position as foreign minister as a springboard in a bid to become chancellor after the October 15 general election. The 31-year-old Kurz has reinvented the Austrian People’s Party (OeVP), a leading political force since 1945 and junior partner in a coalition led by Chancellor Christian Kern’s Social Democrats (SPOe), to create a challenge to the status quo. Impacts A Kurz-led coalition would seek sweeping changes, cutting taxes and cracking down on welfare abuse to increase individual initiative. If Kurz fails, the OeVP will plunge into chaos and internal disputes. Kurz could become a victim of his own success and prompt rival parties to come together despite their differences, in an effort to stop him.

Singapore ruling party faces critical contest

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
September 11 ◽  
General Election ◽  
Foreign Workers ◽  
Founding Father ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The City ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Outlook for Singapore's 2015 general election. Significance Singapore will hold a general election on September 11, its first since the death of the city-state's founding father, Lee Kuan Yew. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has braced his long-incumbent People's Action Party (PAP) for a more difficult contest at the polls than in 2011, with opposition parties expected to better the 10% share of parliamentary seats they held on the dissolution of parliament on August 25. Impacts The People's Action Party will need to define a post-Lee Kuan Yew legacy. The post-September government will need to balance popular concern over foreign workers with Singapore's need for labour. Singaporean electoral politics will become increasingly competitive.

Hungary’s angry protests portend increased instability

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Manufacturing Enterprises ◽  
European People’S Party ◽  
The Law ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party has extended the legal ceiling on overtime to 400 hours per year. The bill sparked heavy opposition in parliament and on the streets, uniting all opposition parties and Hungary’s weak and fragmented unions. Impacts Independent legislators and extra-parliamentary forces will gain popularity as established parties, especially the Socialists, lose weight. The law will increase Hungary’s attractiveness to investors, especially big manufacturing enterprises. Violence on Budapest’s streets will put pressure on Fidesz’s allies abroad, especially the European People’s Party, to sever ties.

Cambodia security forces could be election wildcard

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
The State ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
General Election ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Security Personnel

Subject Elections and security. Significance The interior minister has ordered security personnel to assure “equal security to all political parties” contesting the June 4 commune council elections. Yet this follows remarks by other officials that “war” will occur if the governing Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) loses these or the 2018 general election, and promising a crackdown if the opposition does not respect either election’s result and undertakes violent street protests. Cambodia’s security forces will be central to election security, to any crackdown and to the post-election period. However, concerns have been raised about their relationship with the state. Impacts Using the security forces to perpetuate CPP rule could undermine Cambodia’s democratisation. However, renewed CPP government would assure internal security, aiding economic growth and investment. If the CNRP wins in 2018, the CPP would likely demand a power-sharing agreement rather than leave office.

Cambodia local polls could produce policy instability

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
General Election ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Administrative Units

Subject Outlook for Cambodia's local elections on June 4. Significance Cambodia holds elections for commune/Sangkat councils on June 4, local administrative units consisting of clusters of villages. The election result will indicate the popularity of the two main political parties that will compete in the 2018 general election, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) and the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP). Impacts Post-commune-election protests are likely, but will not reach the same height as after the 2013 election. Ahead of 2018, the CPP will push populist economic policies such as higher state officals pay to gain votes. Should the CNRP win the commune election, legislative instability may follow before the 2018 election.

AKP may lack the seats to change Turkish presidency

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Right

Significance The candidates for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) are staunch Erdogan loyalists -- or are assumed to be so. Yet this does not mean that the president's position will always be unassailable. Recep Tayyip Erdogan's predominance in Turkey's politics is beginning to look a little shaky, now that some of his senior AKP lieutenants have clashed with each other -- and by implication with him. Erdogan's plans to set up a highly centralised executive presidency are at the centre of the AKP election campaign, but it looks like an uphill struggle to achieve this. The potential for instability has grown. Impacts AKP is still on course to win a handsome majority in the general election, well ahead of its rivals. However, senior politicians disgruntled with Erdogan may make trouble during the campaign. If four parties enter the next parliament, AKP could conceivably be forced into coalition, probably with the right-wing MHP. During the campaign and probably after it, Erdogan's leadership will be less assured than it has been for a decade.

Indian opposition parties will disrupt parliament more

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chief Justice ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Civil Violence ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Parliamentary disruptions and increasing riots in India. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this month led a public fast in protest at disruptions inside parliament, which cost the budget session nearly 250 hours in lost deliberations. While the Indian legislature’s role in holding the executive to account is curtailed, popular riots provide a means to challenge government policies. India’s general election is due in 2019, when Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek to retain power. Impacts Opposition parties’ attempts to have the Supreme Court chief justice impeached are unlikely to succeed. Spikes in civil violence are likely ahead of forthcoming state elections. The BJP and its allies may achieve a majority in the upper house after 2019, if Modi's party retains power.

Modi’s party will likely renew emphasis on caste

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Identity Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject India's ruling party's likely election strategy emphasising caste. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was last week displaced from government in three of its heartland states by the main opposition Congress party, following elections. The poll results suggest a loss of support for the BJP among rural voters and Dalits (formerly regarded as ‘untouchables’). Ahead of the general election likely in April or May, party President Amit Shah is overseeing the BJP’s strategy. Impacts The BJP will highlight India’s robust quarterly GDP growth figures, claiming good economic management besides engaging in identity politics. Opposition parties could highlight the plight of Dalits working as manual scavengers as part of their election campaigns. Shah will likely be a future prime ministerial candidate for the BJP.

Cambodia’s Hun Sen faces risks despite likely poll win

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Prime Minister Hun Sen’s Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) is bidding to retain power. The royalist Funcinpec, led by Prince Norodom Ranariddh, will be among the opposition parties contesting. Impacts A CPP victory would likely mean further pro-investor reforms, but it would not necessarily bode well for anti-graft efforts. If the opposition wins, in 2018 or later, Cambodia’s state organs would likely stay pro-CPP for years, complicating governance. A CPP victory could see increased out-migration from Cambodia, potentially hitting business and economic development.

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