Egypt import controls will not prevent devaluation

Significance British Airways stopped selling tickets in Egyptian pounds because it could not convert earnings into dollars. At end of February, Egypt's foreign reserves stood 16.53 billion dollars -- down from 36.04 billion dollars at end-2010. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) and the government have introduced measures to curb imports to reduce the import bill, and have provided tariff protection to local industries, in order to address the chronic shortage of foreign exchange. Impacts The government will resort to more creative measures to ease its foreign currency problems. This will include requiring suppliers to agree to deferred payment, and holding up shipments by applying intrusive inspection criteria. Recent financing agreements with the World Bank, the African Development Bank, Saudi Arabia and China have given Egypt some leeway. However, if it finally accepts the case for devaluation it may seek support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Significance Revelations by an investigative commission that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) withheld 25 billion dollars from the federal government between 2011 and 2015 will add urgency to the proceedings. Impacts Concessional loans from the World Bank, African Development Bank and China Exim Bank may fund Nigeria's 'stimulus' budget. Low oil prices will constrain economic growth -- expected to be 4.6%, well below the 6.8% average during the decade ending 2014. The central bank's decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to 12% (a full percentage point increase) will dampen consumer demand.


Significance The IMF's willingness to turn a blind eye may enable Angola to retain access to concessional finance over the next 18 months; however, Luanda needs a plan to address deferred principal payments and recapitalise a key escrow account in 2023. Impacts The IMF's latest funding review will unlock USD500mn from the World Bank and USD200mn from the African Development Bank. Persistent IMF pressure for greater central bank autonomy will help curb inflation, which recently reached 25%, pending new legislation. Domestic banks remain vulnerable to economic shocks amid a lengthy recession, persistent high inflation and continued currency depreciation.


Author(s):  
Stephen Kwamena Aikins

This study investigated the extent and benefits of Africa's broadband connectivity, its impact on e-government and economic growth, and the challenges and best practices for addressing them. Studies by the UN and ITU over the years have revealed Africa lags behind in the global broadband connectivity and e-government diffusion. The Connect Africa summit held in 2007 by the ITU and its partners came out with five specific goals to connect the continent and help improve its economy. This study reviewed the Connect Africa Outcomes Report, and analyzed the publications of three independent studies conducted by: a) the ITU, b) the World Bank and the African Development Bank, and c) Informa Telecoms and Media. The findings reveal that Africa has made substantial progress in international connectivity and mobile broadband penetration. Additionally, broadband connectivity has contributed toward some improvements in e-government initiatives and economic growth. The study concludes with recommendations to address the existing challenges to consolidate the gains made.


Author(s):  
Lichtenstein Natalie

Chapter 10, Reflections, draws on the histories of AIIB’s predecessors to single out themes that may prove relevant for AIIB’s future development. Examples are taken from the stories of the World Bank, and the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), the Asian Development Bank (AsDB), the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Principal themes are: economic and financial environment; international relations and politics; funding; membership changes; major shareholders; clients and operations; leadership and governance; and attitudes toward change. While AIIB has been established in a world far different from the second half of the twentieth century that saw the birth of its predecessors, many of these aspects of the development of these multilateral development banks may prove similarly influential as AIIB’s future unfolds.


Significance Mawarire is the founder of the 'This Flag' movement, which has been a driving force behind a wave of demonstrations and strikes earlier this month against graft, unemployment and economic mismanagement by President Robert Mugabe's government. Impacts Import bans will adversely affect South African exporters, for whom Zimbabwe is a key regional market. Use of the South African rand in Zimbabwe will remain unpopular, due to concerns about its weakness against the dollar. The government will prioritise cash for paying the salaries of the security forces, since these underpin the regime's survival. Loans from the African Export-Import Bank will help Harare to begin paying the World Bank some of its arrears.


Subject Zimbabwe cash crisis. Significance New Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube implemented a 2% tax on money transfers and unveiled other proposed reforms in early October. Initial uncertainty surrounding the new measures led to panic-buying of supplies, cash shortages and a subsequent clampdown on public protests. Following modifications, the new measures have been endorsed by local industry, the IMF and the World Bank -- but public mistrust lingers. Impacts Foreign currency shortages may worsen as exporters face rising costs without a market-based foreign exchange rate for converting earnings. The Reserve Bank will struggle to gain the trust of the public, government and investors amid recent corruption scandals. Wasteful spending, corruption and public-sector wages (which account for 90% of budget spending) will persist as major deficit drivers.


Significance The figure has been presented by the government as a vindication of its efforts to achieve fiscal sustainability while providing financial safety nets for the most vulnerable groups in society. However, the poverty rate is still higher than in 2015, and the new index was compiled before the full impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy had become clear. Impacts The economic impact of the pandemic appears to have been relatively light, but this can be attributed partly to statistical anomalies. The poverty rate fall indicates to the IMF and the World Bank that their programmes will eventually pay off for most Egyptians. There is uncertainty about the extent of the return of Egyptians from the Gulf and the effect of this on poverty and unemployment.


Author(s):  
Stephen Kwamena Aikins

This study investigated the extent and benefits of Africa's broadband connectivity, its impact on e-government and economic growth, and the challenges and best practices for addressing them. Studies by the UN and ITU over the years have revealed Africa lags behind in the global broadband connectivity and e-government diffusion. The Connect Africa summit held in 2007 by the ITU and its partners came out with five specific goals to connect the continent and help improve its economy. This study reviewed the Connect Africa Outcomes Report, and analyzed the publications of three independent studies conducted by: a) the ITU, b) the World Bank and the African Development Bank, and c) Informa Telecoms and Media. The findings reveal that Africa has made substantial progress in international connectivity and mobile broadband penetration. Additionally, broadband connectivity has contributed toward some improvements in e-government initiatives and economic growth. The study concludes with recommendations to address the existing challenges to consolidate the gains made.


Author(s):  
Lichtenstein Natalie

Chapter 1, Beginnings, introduces the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the book and its author. The origins of the AIIB proposal by China are discussed, along with the global economic and geo-political aspects that led to its establishment. There are comparisons to the establishment of other multilateral development banks: the World Bank, and the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), the Asian Development Bank (AsDB), the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The steps in the negotiating process in 2014–2015 are summarized, and presented in a table of the 57 countries that participated. The author describes her role in drafting the AIIB Charter and some of the considerations in the choice of model.


Significance Tensions between the governing Georgian Dream (GD) coalition, President Giorgi Margvelashvili and Kadagidze have risen rapidly in recent months, sparked by the government's controversial bill on bank supervision. The GD bill would transfer supervision of banks and other financial institutions from the NBG to a new agency. The bill has been criticised by the NBG, the president and multilateral agencies, including the IMF, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Asian Development Bank (ADB) and World Bank. Impacts Members of the government will continue to blame the NBG for the lari's depreciation, in a bid to deflect criticism from themselves. Separating banking supervision from the NBG will lead to concerns over the stability of the financial sector. Investor confidence will be undermined, potentially weighing on foreign investment inflows in the short term.


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