Structural weaknesses hinder the coal price outlook

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Cold Weather ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Coal Price ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
Coal Market ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

Subject Coal market Significance After a sustained price decline, coal producers are taking relief from the sharp rise in thermal coal prices this year, with coal outperforming both oil and natural gas. However, looking beyond the boost from US President-elect Donald Trump’s support for US manufacturing, the price spike is largely the result of thermal coal shortages because of Indonesian and Chinese production cuts, which could be quickly reversed. Impacts The price spike since summer 2016 has returned many coal producers to a cash-positive position. Cold weather will increase demand, pushing up prices throughout the northern hemisphere winter. China is likely to take further measures to boost domestic production.

Global coal market will stay oversupplied

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Underground Mining ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
Market Report ◽  
Coal Market

Subject Prospects for the global coal market. Significance Seaborne thermal coal prices are on a long-term slide. Having peaked above 130 dollars per metric tonne (mt) for thermal coal delivered into north-western Europe in 2011, prices have sunk to 52.8 dollars/mt on September 7, the lowest level since 2009. At these prices, only the lowest-cost producers can remain profitable. In its 'Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2014', the International Energy Agency estimates that production costs for US Central Appalachian (CAPP) producers and Australian underground mining are close to 90 dollars/mt. Impacts Further coal sector bankruptcies and mine closures are likely. Coal will remain competitive with natural gas for power generation in most markets. Medium-term demand response will be limited by a lack of new coal plant construction and environmental regulation.

Herd behaviour may prompt fears of LNG over-supply

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Import Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Herd Behaviour ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

Subject LNG investment outlook. Significance Spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have fallen this year, as new supply has collided with a relatively warm Northern Hemisphere winter. Oil and gas companies see a supply shortfall emerging in the mid-2020s and are investing in LNG plants. The deep decarbonisation required to meet 2030 climate change targets means gas is likely to gain market share against coal in power generation and oil in transport. Impacts Low LNG prices will encourage coal-for-gas switching and embolden new importers to enter the market. Higher flows of LNG into Europe as a result of falling domestic gas production will solidify the price cap on pipeline import prices. LNG will continue to make inroads in the shipping and land transport sectors.

The International Coal Trade and Price Outlook

1988 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 425-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guy Doyle
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Supply Curve ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Coal Price ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
Price Trends ◽  
Coal Market ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
World Supply ◽  
Future Demand

The paper starts with a brief review of recent trends in the international coal market and an examination of the linkage between coal and oil prices. It is argued that while oil prices had a significant impact on coal prices in the 1973–87 period, future coal price trends will be driven more by demand and supply developments in the coal market itself. Taking thermal coal as an example, future demand and supply developments are examined. Demand and supply are brought together by using an aggregate world supply curve. The plausible range of prices for 2000 is determined by reading off the supply curve at the appropriate projected demand levels.

COP21 will drive global shift away from coal

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Carbon Reduction ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
Market Outlook ◽  
Coal Market ◽  
Cost Of Production ◽  
The Cost

Subject Coal market outlook. Significance Coal producers are under pressure. For many, the price of thermal coal exports is below the cost of production plus transport. Currency depreciation and lower oil prices provide some insulation but leave high-cost US producers, in particular, in financial peril. Impacts Countries dependent on coal-export revenues will face further fiscal shortfalls. Leading exporting countries (such as Russia, Mozambique and Mongolia) will no longer get substantial revenues from coal. New investment will remain scarce as funds eschew the coal industry's low margins and risk of carbon-reduction regulation adding to costs.

Global coal market will decline in the long term

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Carbon Sources ◽  
Total Power ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
Coal Market ◽  
Domestic Power

Subject Outlook for global coal markets. Significance Thermal coal prices hit a record of 210 dollars per tonne in July 2008 and have declined since 2011. Last year, prices averaged 57 dollars per tonne and until recently struggled to hold above the 45 threshold. The slide is due to environmental concerns, which are shifting power generation towards low-carbon sources. After several years of 300 million tonnes (mt) yearly growth, global coal demand fell by 63 mt in 2014 and by 180 mt in 2015. Although many mines have been shut, production fell by less than demand. Impacts This year Russia may surpass its 2015 production by 10 mt, all of which will be exported. Australia's compliance with Paris emissions reduction targets may thwart domestic coal projects mulled by China's Shenhua and India's Adani. Having lost its export markets, Indonesia is redirecting its coal production towards the slated increase in domestic power generation. Colombia has entered the Indian market thanks to record-low freight rates; their increase may reduce flows to the subcontinent. Japan targets a 26% reduction in emissions for 2030 by limiting coal use to 26% of total power output.

Foul fundamentals will curb world coal

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Iron Ore ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Panama Canal ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
Panama Canal Expansion ◽  
Market Outlook ◽  
Coal Market ◽  
Asian Market ◽  
First Time

Subject Coal market outlook Significance Coal prices rallied by more than 70% in 2016 after five years of decline, making it one of the best-performing commodities last year alongside iron ore. In December 2016, the price of Australian thermal coal -- the benchmark for the Asian market -- hit 100 dollars per tonne for the first time since 2012. The price has eased to around 85 dollars, but Chinese demand remains strong -- imports rose by 33% during the first four months of the year, nearly 10% faster than in the corresponding period of 2016. Impacts Coal imports by Pakistan, Turkey and several ASEAN nations will rise to 2021, checking the deceleration of seaborne thermal coal trade. The Panama Canal expansion is allowing Colombia to export more coal to Asia and trade flows should increase as the route gains traction. Mines restarted in Indonesia and Australia at the end of 2016, but these will remain the exception to the longer trend of declining supply.

Prospects for the global economy in 2021

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

Significance Europe and the United States may slip back into recession in the northern hemisphere winter. If vaccination succeeds, the advanced economies will recover robustly from mid-2021. Few emerging markets will be widely vaccinated by end-2021, restricting, if not negating, their recoveries.

scholarly journals Research on Double Price Regulations and Peak Shaving Reserve Mechanism in Coal-Electricity Supply Chain

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongjun Peng ◽  
Meihua Zhou ◽  
Fudong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Electricity Supply ◽  
Peak Shaving ◽  
Coal Price ◽  
Thermal Coal ◽  
Transportation Capacity ◽  
Coal Market ◽  
Coal Supply ◽  
Coal Enterprises

The game models were used to study the mechanism of coal-electricity price conflict under conditions of double price regulations of coal and electricity. Based on this, the peak shaving reserve mechanism was designed to probe into the countermeasures against the coal-electricity price conflicts. The study revealed that in the boom seasons of coal demand, the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply thermal coal and the electricity enterprises to order thermal coal are reduced under conditions of double price regulations. However, under the circumstances of coal price marketization, in the boom seasons of coal demand the thermal coal price may go up obviously, the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply thermal coal are increased, and meanwhile the initiatives of the power enterprises to order thermal coal are decreased dramatically. The transportation capacity constraint of coal supply leads to the evident decrease of the initiatives of coal enterprises for the thermal coal supply. The mechanism of peak shaving reserve of thermal coal may not only reduce the price of coal market but also increase the enthusiasm of the power enterprises to order more thermal coal and the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply more thermal coal.

scholarly journals Predictability Changes of Stratospheric Circulations in Northern Hemisphere Winter

2016 ◽  
Vol 94 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomoko ICHIMARU ◽  
Shunsuke NOGUCHI ◽  
Toshihiko HIROOKA ◽  
Hitoshi MUKOUGAWA
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter
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