Prospects for the global economy to end-2017

Subject PROSPECTS: H2 2017: Global economy Significance Despite concerns over elections, leadership changes and economic risks, equity markets have strengthened on expectations of higher GDP growth and inflation while bond markets have remained steady. Economic activity has improved across the world, underpinning confidence. Trade flows have picked up, and the oil price has settled higher than in the first eleven months of 2016. The uncertainty surrounding US policy -- notably interest rate trends -- remains a global concern, but near-term risks are specific rather than systemic.

Author(s):  
Chris Wickham

Building on impressive new research into the concept of a ‘global middle ages’, this chapter offers insights into how economic formations developed around the world. Drawing on new research on both Chinese and Mediterranean economies in the ‘medieval’ period, it compares structures of economy and exchange in very different parts of the world. The point of such comparisons is not simply to find instances of global economic flows but to understand the logic of medieval economic activity and its intersections with power and culture; and, in so doing, to remind historians that economic structures, transnational connections, and the imbrications of economy and politics do not arrive only with modernity, nor is the shape of the ‘modern’ global economy the only pattern known to humankind.


Author(s):  
Margaret Lock

This chapter turns to the global concern about aging societies, and the so-called epidemic of aging. It argues that a public health approach to aging and Alzheimer's will have a much greater effect in reducing the incidence of Alzheimer disease (AD) worldwide than will the technologically oriented molecular approach currently being heralded as a paradigm shift. Should such an approach be effective, and there is little evidence to date to be optimistic that this will be the case, the extent of investment in advanced medical facilities and highly trained expertise required to put it in place is not realistic beyond wealthy segments of the world, especially given the global economy of the present and the increasing gaps between rich and poor.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 2491-2498
Author(s):  
L.V. Abdrakhmanova ◽  
◽  
E.S. Shchigortsova ◽  

The article analyzes the consequences of the spread of coronavirus infection on the world economy. The high degree of infection and the rapid spread of COVID-19 caused the quarantine of certain cities and regions of the world, and since March 2020, the borders between the countries have been completely closed. This situation, naturally, could not but affect the global economic activity. The crisis caused by the pandemic has led to the fact that the leaders of the countries were forced to first of all pay attention to health problems and seriously reduce funding in other sectors of the economy. The forced self-isolation regime of the population affected all spheres of life, without exception, large and medium, and, especially, small business suffered. The sectors of the economy most affected by the coronavirus pandemic include: air and road transportation, the leisure and entertainment industry, fitness and sports, tourism, hospitality, catering, the education system, the organization of conferences and exhibitions, the provision of personal services to the population, dentistry, retail trade in non-food products, the media and the production of printed materials, etc. Statistical data on the number of cases of new coronavirus infection by country (as well as those who recovered and died from it) are today not so much of a medical nature as evidence of a deepening global economic crisis. The decline in production volumes on a global scale entails a reduction in the global consumption of most types of industrial raw materials and energy carriers. According to analysts’ forecasts, the possibility of a quick return to the previous economic activity is not foreseen, negative processes may continue for the next several years. The COVID-19 pandemic is a serious test of the readiness of the world economy to effectively resolve global problems, overcome the negative consequences of the spread of the virus and focus on those positive opportunities, the development of which can lead to economic growth in the long term. One of these promising areas of economic development is the further digitalization of society, the development of new digital technologies.


Significance Vaezi was speaking after talks with visiting Armenian Economy Minister Karen Chshmaritian. Since Iran's nuclear deal with the international powers, Armenia is in a key position to engage with Iran, building on a recent deepening of bilateral relations. With a sizeable minority community in Iran and a record of historical cooperation, Armenia is well positioned to leverage the opportunities inherent in Iran's reintegration into the global economy. Impacts With two of its four borders closed, better links to Iran would be of great benefit to Armenia. Iran could have ambitions of becoming a mediator in South Caucasus's intractable 'frozen' conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Iran could offer Armenia its oil and gas at a discount to take market share from Russia.


Significance The pandemic has seen an unprecedented reduction in global travel. Previously unthinkable travel bans and border closures have been implemented throughout the world in an attempt to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Many countries are now beginning to ease restrictions, aiming to achieve a new and sustainable normal. Travel is a crucial component of the global economy and the sector is restarting, but it faces major challenges. Impacts Domestic air travel will begin its recovery much ahead of international travel as it will not have to deal with border restrictions. Large outbreaks could lead to quarantines for individuals traveling to and from the affected country until control has been regained. Improvements in testing quality and capacity will significantly aid the global recovery process.


Subject Financial market reactions to the pandemic Significance While policymakers and epidemiologists broadly agree that the only viable approach for substantially relaxing lockdowns and social distancing measures is mass community testing and contact tracing, there are significant differences of opinion on how sharply infection curves need to flatten before restrictions are eased. The risk that lockdowns -- which have become dangerously politicised -- will be lifted prematurely, causing a second wave of infections, poses a significant threat to the global economy and markets. Impacts The US S&P 500 equity index has surged since late March, but the bleak corporate earnings outlook means this is unlikely to be a bull run. The spread between Italian and German bonds has widened since late March, reflecting investors' persistent doubts about EU cooperation. The major central banks are likely to invest more than twice as much in sovereign and corporate bonds as in 2008, distorting bond markets.


10.26458/1728 ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-139
Author(s):  
Bogdan Sofronov

Tourism is an important economic activity in most countries around the world. As well as its direct economic impact,the industry has significant indirect and induced impacts.The outlook for the Tourism sector in 2017 remains robust and will continue to be at the forefront of wealth and employment creation in the global economy, despite the emergence of a number of challenging headwinds.In tourism, GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 3.8%, up from 3.1% in 2016. As nations seem to be looking increasingly inward, putting in place barriers to trade and movement of people, the role of Tourism becomes even more significant, as an engine of economic development and as a vehicle for sharing cultures, creating peace, and building mutual understanding.


Significance The move mainly aims to pre-empt the widely anticipated launch of a sovereign quantitative easing (QE) programme by the ECB on January 22. However, it will accentuate divergences between bond and equity markets. Sovereign bond yields for most advanced economies are falling to new lows and are increasingly negative at the shorter end of the yield curve, because of deflation fears and lacklustre growth outlooks. Yet equity markets are hovering near record highs, buoyed by the US recovery and expectations of further monetary stimulus in the euro-area. Impacts Bond markets will be driven by deflation fears, while equity markets, especially US stocks, will be buoyed by Goldilocks-type conditions. Market expectations that the ECB will launch a sovereign QE programme will make bond yields fall further. Bond yields will be suppressed by investor scepticism about the ECB's ability to reflate the euro-area economy.


Subject Prospects for the global economy in 2017. Significance The IMF, the OECD and the World Bank see the world economy growing by about 3.0% next year, little changed from its 2012-16 average growth but down from the 5.1% average achieved during 2003-07. Factors influencing the outlook include weak trade and poor productivity along with high debt levels and policy limitations: these feed into each other, creating a downward spiral of growth expectations. Nonetheless, many economies are well placed to cope with this 'new normal'.


Subject Global economy prospects. Significance The world economy is expected to grow by around 4% this year, slightly higher than expected six months ago. Yet this is likely to be the peak of this cycle.


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