Koruna is likeliest in Central Europe to rise further

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Positive Sentiment

Subject The rally in Central Europe’s currencies despite the dovish stance of most of the region’s central banks. Significance The zloty has shot up against the euro this year; the koruna has strengthened sharply in response to the removal by the Czech National Bank (CNB) of its euro rate cap; even the forint has firmed by 2.2% against the euro since mid-December. Central Europe’s currencies are benefiting from reflationary pressures (particularly in the Czech Republic), inflows into equity and local bond markets, and positive sentiment towards developing economies. Impacts The 40-bp fall in 10-year US Treasury yields since mid-March will buoy world equity markets and encourage more exposure to EM ‘risk assets’. The 6% fall in the dollar index against a basket of currencies since early January is contributing to sharp euro and yen rises. Germany’s economy is performing strongly, in the first quarter enjoying its fastest growth rate in a year. This is underpinning expansion in Central Europe’s economies, particularly in Hungary and the Czech Republic.

ECB's QE will buoy EM bond markets

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Current

Subject Opposite forces are shaping investor sentiment towards EM assets. Significance Investor sentiment towards emerging market (EM) assets is being shaped by the conflicting forces of a strong dollar and the launch of a sovereign quantitative easing (QE) programme by the ECB. While the latter is likely to encourage investment into higher-yielding assets, such as EM debt, the former will keep the currencies of developing economies under strain, particularly those most sensitive to a rise in US interest rates due to heavier reliance on capital inflows to finance large current account deficits, such as Turkey and South Africa. Impacts EM bonds will benefit from ECB-related inflows, while the strength of the dollar will keep local currencies under strain. Higher-yielding EMs will benefit the most from the ECB's bond-buying scheme since they provide the greatest scope for 'carry trades'. The collapse in oil prices is forcing EM central banks to turn increasingly dovish, putting further strain on local currencies.

Central Europe's lower yields may dampen bond outflows

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Corporate Debt ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Conditions

Subject QE’s influence on Central Europe’s bond markets. Significance Hawkish signals from the ECB are adding to recent strains on global bond markets, causing German ten-year Bund yields to shoot up to their highest levels since July. The sell-off is contributing to sharp outflows from Central Europe’s local debt markets, already under pressure as monetary tightening starts in the region; the Czech Republic, which has raised rates twice since August, is suffering the largest withdrawals. However, the absence of large inflows since the ECB started quantitative easing (QE) in 2015 could help mitigate the fallout from its end. Impacts As OPEC members reaffirm their commitment to production cuts, oil prices are shooting up to their highest level in nearly three years. Sales of speculative-grade US corporate debt have had their strongest New Year since 2014, a sign of enduring demand for high-yield bonds. The three-year low in the dollar index will help keep financial conditions loose and buoy up emerging market currencies.

Fiscal policy may deter holding Romanian debt

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Social Democrat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East European ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
National Bank

Subject The outlook for Central-East European debt. Significance A flurry of hawkish commentary from the world’s leading central banks, in particular the ECB, which is preparing the ground for a withdrawal of monetary stimulus, has put significant strain on the domestic bond markets of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE). Under particular pressure are Romanian domestic bonds, because of the threat of fiscal slippages under the new Social Democrat (PSD)-led government, which are likely to force the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to hike interest rates more aggressively than its regional peers. Impacts Despite the central-bank-driven sell-off in global markets, negative-yielding bonds still account for one-fifth of global sovereign debt. Persistent concerns about a supply glut are keeping Brent crude below 50 dollars per barrel, with oil prices down by 14% since end-May. Emerging Market stocks are declining under pressure of hawkish rhetoric from central banks, but not Hungarian and Czech equities.

Hungarian monetary policy risks disorderly forint fall

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
The Eu

Significance This is despite a spike in core inflation. The three central banks of Central Europe (CE) are on a loosening cycle, responding aggressively to the COVID-19-induced collapse in growth while expecting the contraction to bring down core inflation rates later this year. Impacts PMI surveys for Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic show persistent expectations of contraction. The Commission expects Czech GDP to contract this year by 7.75%, the pandemic disrupting foreign demand for export-oriented manufacturing. Hungarian GDP is to shrink by 7% with labour market deterioration curbing household consumption and falling exports hurting the auto sector. Contraction in Poland’s resilient and diversified economy by just 4.5% in 2020 is forecast to be the least-bad in the EU. Hungary’s mixed record in handling of the crisis could put the ruling Fidesz party’s position at risk.

Attention will turn to policy scope to fight recession

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Global Equity Markets

Significance The dovish U-turns by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB, which were withdrawing monetary stimulus as recently as end-2018, are accentuating concerns that the leading central banks lack the firepower to fight the next recession. Creating confusion, global equity markets are surging but bond markets are growing more pessimistic. Impacts The Chinese equity market is surging as investors anticipate some form of US-China trade deal, but any boost is likely to be temporary. US equities have rebounded this year, but the outflows from US equity funds that began in October will continue and may rise amid anxiety. Chinese growth was slowing even before the tariffs and worries are rising that this, more than trade, will increasingly hit world growth.

Czech koruna may avoid Swiss-style turmoil

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Price Rise ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
National Bank

Subject The central bank's plans to lift its three-year cap on koruna/euro appreciation. Significance Mounting speculation that the Swiss-inspired currency floor might be scrapped early has led to upward pressure on the currency, buoying demand for shorter-dated Czech local bonds and forcing the Czech National Bank (CNB) to intervene more aggressively to weaken the koruna. While inflation rose to 0.6% in August, there are fears that removing the cap could lead to excessive appreciation of the koruna, putting downward pressure on growth and inflation. Impacts Concerns about ECB monetary policy efficacy, and possible early scaling-back of QE, are making Europe's bond markets increasingly jittery. Oil prices have risen past the psychologically important 50 dollars/barrel level, improving the outlook for inflation. Provided the oil price rise is sustained, this will ease pressure on central banks to loosen monetary policy further. The German economy's slowdown, due to a dearth of investment, is a drag on smaller CEE export-led economies such as Hungary and Slovakia.

Public leadership and strategies of Czech municipalities during the COVID-19 pandemic – municipal activism vs municipal passivism

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Plaček ◽  
David Špaček ◽  
František Ochrana
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Strategic Behavior ◽  
Participant Observation ◽  
Capital City ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Leadership

PurposeThis paper discusses the role of public leadership and the strategic response of local governments to the external shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors examine the typical Czech response with regard to how the leadership of municipalities in the Czech Republic responded to this extremely negative external stimulus.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use qualitative research methods for this investigation. They have chosen the case study method (see Yin, 2009; Stake, 1995; Klonoski, 2013). The general case is the Czech Republic. Mini-cases consist of municipalities from the Znojmo region, municipalities of the Central Bohemian region and the municipal districts in the capital city of Prague. Furthermore, the method of participant observation was used.FindingsThe authors’ analysis of the problem of local government responses to the pandemic crisis shows that municipal leaders responded with a variety of (non-)adaptation strategies. It appears that certain framework factors influenced the various local governments' behavior.Originality/valueThe article examines the strategic behavior of Czech municipal leaders regarding the pandemic crisis based on the observation of the reactions of local governments in the Czech Republic to the pandemic crisis and strives to define their basic strategies.

scholarly journals Analysis of development of basic characteristics of the dairy industry in the Czech Republic

2005 ◽  
Vol 53 (6) ◽  
pp. 93-100
Author(s):  
Renata Kučerová
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Dairy Industry ◽  
Raw Milk ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Agricultural Producers ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Market Growth ◽  
Basic Characteristics

The paper deals with the analysis of changes in the development of basic characteristics of the dairy industry in the Czech Republic, which cohere with the integration of the Czech Republic into the European Union. The attention is paid on size of the market, growth rate, life cycle, development of prices and development of foreign trade. The total domestic consumption reached 2111.1 million litres in 2004. The industry is in the maturity. The excess of supply exists in the industry; the growth rate is low, under 5% per year. The integration of the Czech Republic into the EU didn’t bring about changes in the development of basic characteristics – size of the market, growth rate, and life cycle. The volume of production changed. The total volume of purchase of raw milk for production went down by 1.4% to the value in 2000. And all prices in the product vertical – milk and milk products (prices of agricultural producers, production prices and consumer’s prices) rose.The paper is a part of solution of the research plan of the FBE MUAF in Brno, No. MSM 6215648904.

scholarly journals Draft Genome Sequence of Aeromonas cavernicola sp. nov. DSM 24474T, Isolated from a Cavern Brook in the Moravia Region of the Czech Republic

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (15) ◽  
pp. e00227-18
Author(s):  
S. M. Colston ◽  
A. Navarro ◽  
A. J. Martinez-Murcia ◽  
J. Graf
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Genome Sequence ◽  
Novel Species ◽  
Draft Genome ◽  
Water Sources ◽  
Draft Genome Sequence ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type

ABSTRACT Species of the Aeromonas genus can be found in numerous environmental milieus, including various water sources, and some species cause disease in animals. We present here the draft genome sequence for Aeromonas cavernicola DSM 24474T, a novel species isolated from a freshwater brook within a cavern in the Czech Republic.

scholarly journals Comparison of effects of expansionary monetary policy in the Czech Republic and Slovakia

2020 ◽  
Vol 74 ◽  
pp. 04006
Author(s):  
Boris Fisera ◽  
Jana Kotlebova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Open Economies ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Economic Developments

The ongoing process of globalization has affected the way the monetary policy is conducted – and this is especially the case of small open economies, where the economic developments are heavily affected by the developments abroad. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of unconventional monetary policy in two very open economies – Slovakia and the Czech Republic in the post-crisis era – the two rather similar very open economies. We assess the effects of their monetary policies by estimating their impact on the banking sector in both countries. We employ two cointegrating estimators – DOLS and FMOLS, so that we can assess the dynamics of the relationship between the developments of main balance sheet items of the respective central banks and the aggregate bank lending to various sectors of the economy. We do find evidence that unconventional policies of both central banks did lift bank lending – with the effect being stronger in Slovakia and for the QE policies. In both countries, the effect was more pronounced for the bank lending to household sector – specifically on housing related loans. Finally, we do not find evidence that the increasing openness of these two already very open economies affected the transmission of monetary policies into the banking sector.

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