Trump-Kim summit would boost Singapore’s reputation

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Security Architecture ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East Asia Summit ◽  
High Level ◽  
The City

Significance Singapore was chosen to host the meeting because it has ties to both countries, which view it as neutral turf, while the event resonates with the city-state’s foreign policy interests. Impacts ASEAN would view the summit as underscoring its centrality in the regional security architecture. If the summit takes place and is successful, the leaders of Japan and Russia will seek their own high-level meetings with Kim. Trump may be reluctant to travel to Singapore again in November to attend the East Asia Summit.

China visit could be crucial for Philippines’ Duterte

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Active Role ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Asean Regional Forum ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East Asia Summit ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance This follows the first ASEAN Summit that Duterte headed as ASEAN’s chair for 2017, where his pro-China foreign policy was evident. Impacts Should the Trump administration take a less active role in ASEAN’s institutions, this will strengthen China’s hand. Maritime spats could be prominent when the Philippines chairs the ASEAN Regional Forum (August) and East Asia Summit (November). Philippine public scepticism over China could see protests as closer bilateral ties are pursued.

Trump trade bluster will alienate US allies in Asia

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
East Asia ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Arms Sales ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East Asia Summit ◽  
Rights Issues ◽  
Sticking Point

Significance Even without Trump's scheduled participation in the East Asia Summit (EAS) in the Philippines -- he left Manila just before the meeting began -- he made his foreign policy priorities clear throughout the trip, which, on his return to Washington, he hailed as a "tremendous success". Impacts Trump’s pursuit of quick arms sales could increase regional tensions and cause dissent in Congress. The Trump administration’s relative silence on human rights issues removes a sticking point from talks with authoritarian regimes. Trump’s interventions with foreign leaders undermine the credibility of US officials.

Growing Laos-US ties will concern Beijing

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
South Korea ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
East Asia Summit ◽  
The Us ◽  
Generational Changes ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
High Level

Subject Laos/US diplomatic ties. Significance Ahead of US President Barack Obama's planned visit to the 2016 East Asia Summit in Laos, Washington is boosting its high-level diplomacy with Vientiane. In the past two months, US Assistant Secretary of State Danny Russel hosted the sixth annual Laos-US Strategic Dialogue; US Ambassador to ASEAN Nina Hachician visited to confer on Laos's 2016 ASEAN chairmanship; and Second Lady Jill Biden led a delegation to Vientiane on women's empowerment and civil society. These visits further the US 'Asia pivot' and lay the groundwork to challenge China's influence over Laos and the wider Mekong region including Cambodia and Myanmar. Impacts Generational changes in Lao politics will unfold from April 2016. Vientiane will diversify its diplomatic contacts. Possible US trade preferences may hasten Lao labour reforms. Japan, South Korea and Vietnam will also challenge China in Laos.

Trump will highlight Vietnam as a model for Kim

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East Asia Summit ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Peace And Security

Subject A possible second Trump-Kim summit. Significance Vietnam last week said it had not been told about the timing or location of a possible second summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un but that it was confident it could host such an event. Washington earlier in January announced that a summit would be held in February, following landmark talks between Trump and Kim in Singapore last year. Impacts A summit in Vietnam would provide Trump with a distraction from investigations into his alleged links with Russia. The summit would bolster ASEAN’s claims to be crucial to promoting peace and security in the ‘Indo-Pacific’. A successful Trump-Kim meeting would be welcomed by Beijing but would not influence US-China trade talks. Trump would be unlikely to travel to South-east Asia for a second time this year to attend the East Asia Summit in Thailand in November.

Trump targets South-east Asia-US policy continuity

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
East Asia Summit ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject Emerging US policy towards South-east Asia under the Trump administration. Significance On May 5, the 30th US-ASEAN Dialogue opens in Washington, to be co-chaired by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. This follows Vice-President Mike Pence’s visit to Indonesia of April 20-22, the first to South-east Asia by a cabinet-level official from the Trump administration. The White House used that occasion to announce that President Donald Trump will attend the APEC meeting in Vietnam and the East Asia Summit (EAS) in the Philippines in November. Impacts Trump may co-chair a US-ASEAN Summit with Philippines president on the EAS’s margins, which could improve frayed bilateral ties. Congress could frustrate any Trump administration plans to sanction countries with trade surpluses with the United States. An ASEAN-US free trade agreement is unlikely soon. Trump has invited Vietnam’s prime minister to visit Washington later, which could make Hanoi more bullish towards China.

Ethiopia and Eritrea will leverage border clash

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Relations ◽  
Northern Frontier

Significance Tentative shifts in Eritrea's regional and global relations -- related to the conflict in Yemen and to Eritrean migration to Europe -- have raised the prospect that the country could emerge from diplomatic isolation, which may in turn increase Ethiopia's concerns about its northern frontier. Impacts US-Saudi differences over regional security create a diplomatic opening for Asmara, which is highly critical of US policy. The clashes intensify the EU's difficulty in balancing its 'rights-based' foreign policy with strategic interests in Eritrea. Tensions with Eritrea will probably remain distinct from anti-government mobilisation in Ethiopia, such as the recent protests in Oromiya.

South-east Asia-US ties will be unchanged, for now

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Electoral College ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Enterprise Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Rights ◽  
State Owned Enterprise ◽  
East Asian Economies

Significance With Trump within striking distance of catching Clinton in popular polls, though not yet the Electoral College, South-east Asian leaders and diplomats have privately expressed concern about the next US administration and the outlook for South-east Asia-US relations. Impacts A Trump presidency could destabilise South-east Asian economies and regional security. Maritime frictions could soon flare if China 'tests' the incoming US president. If the TPP is delayed or fails, Vietnamese labour rights and state-owned enterprise reform will likely founder.

ASEAN-UK post-Brexit ties are likely to grow

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Leadership Transition ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Eu

Significance This follows the June 23 'Brexit' referendum, in which 52% of those voting called for the government to organise the United Kingdom's exit from the EU. The vote and subsequent leadership transition pose a foreign policy watershed. Impacts South-east Asian states will seek trade deals with the post-Brexit United Kingdom. The diplomatic importance of UK defence and intelligence aid to South-east Asia will grow. France may become more important for the EU to project its influence in South-east Asia.

Thailand faces long road to TPP entry

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Economic ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Consumer Protection ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Committee

Subject TPP membership. Significance The Thai government's International Economic Policy Committee planned on April 29 to announce that Bangkok would seek entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). However, agricultural groups pre-empted the announcement by threatening national farmers' strikes. Three groups in particular oppose the TPP: farmers, health activists and consumer protection organisations. Impacts RCEP and TPP memberships are not mutually exclusive; rather, membership of both would help balance Thai foreign policy. TPP may help Thailand realise its longstanding goal to be the financial and transportation hub of mainland South-east Asia. TPP will not ease Thailand's immediate economic woes; growth this year will slow to around 3.3%.

Japan's foreign policy caution will not last

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Korean ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
High Level ◽  
Economic Ties

Subject Recent developments in Japanese foreign policy. Significance This month has seen a flurry of high-level diplomatic activity. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has visited Germany, France, Italy, Belgium and the United Kingdom and Russia. Over the same period, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida visited China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos and Vietnam. Impacts Except for Washington, G7 governments have more interest in economic ties with Beijing than in Tokyo's concerns about territorial issues. Japan's willingness to engage Russia may draw the West's ire in due course. The process of relocating the Futenma airbase may drag on for another decade. TPP ratification will be slower than Abe wanted, but US politics is the greatest obstacle. A weakened South Korean administration could find itself pushed into a more hostile approach to Tokyo.

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