India's public health will be an election battleground

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Open Defecation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Party Chief

Subject India's nationwide clean-up campaign. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s flagship ‘Swachh Bharat Abhiyan’ (‘Clean India Mission’) is now in its fifth and final year. While the programme aims to eliminate the country’s culture of open defecation, many Dalits (historically regarded as ‘untouchable’) working as manual scavengers continue to make up for an infrastructure deficit in urban sewerage. Modi will be seeking a second term in the general election, likely in April or May next year, but his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a tough challenge from rivals including the main opposition Congress party. Impacts The BJP’s election campaign will likely have a strong emphasis on Hindu nationalism. Mayawati, Bahujan Samaj Party chief and a Dalit, will be a key figure in talks about forming a broad anti-BJP alliance for the election. Water shortages could prompt pre-poll protests in several cities across India.

Modi’s main test now will be to manage his alliance

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Jobless Growth ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has retained a parliamentary majority and the BJP has extended its single-party majority. During campaigning, Modi emphasised nationalist themes, ranging from Hindu nationalism to national security, while deflecting criticism over problems such as the country’s jobless growth. Impacts The BJP’s pledge to spend 100 trillion rupees (1.4 trillion dollars) on infrastructure will likely prompt a widening of the fiscal deficit. Leading BJP figures such as party President Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath may aim to succeed Modi in 2024. Rahul Gandhi will highly likely relinquish leadership of the main opposition Congress party.

Modi’s party will be relaxed about upcoming polls

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
National Profile ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Each of these states except Punjab has a government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Punjab is one of just three states with a chief minister that belongs to India’s main opposition Congress party. Impacts A poor showing by Congress would further reduce its leverage with other opposition parties in talks over forming a broad anti-Modi alliance. Victory in UP would enhance Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s national profile. Election campaigning will likely lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases.

Modi may yet face a real opposition if it can unite

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The likely strategy of the BJP's opponents. Significance The opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lacks a coherent strategy at national level ahead of elections due in 2019. However, the large turnout at a public rally in Patna late last month, where Lalu Prasad Yadav brought together representatives of 18 opposition parties, suggests that there is popular support for a challenge to the BJP. Impacts States in which elections are due are more likely to see outbreaks of communal violence. Sonia Gandhi will come under increasing pressure to relinquish leadership of the Congress party. The BJP may support the creation of a separate Gorkhaland, at the risk of alienating support in the rest of West Bengal.

Modi’s party will easily win upcoming state polls

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Electronic Voting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance Both states currently have chief ministers from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). India’s main opposition Congress party and regional players are aiming to wrest power from them. Impacts In some parts of Maharashtra, there will likely be outbreaks of agrarian protest in the final stages of campaigning. Smaller parties could win more seats than Congress in the Haryana poll. Parties winning fewer votes in the elections will probably claim impropriety relating to electronic voting machines.

Six scenarios are possible after India’s election ends

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
A Priority ◽  
To Come ◽  
Election Commission

Significance The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is aiming to retain a parliamentary majority. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA), led by the main opposition Congress party, and several unaligned parties are looking to come to power. Impacts The Election Commission will attract criticism over the conduct of the polls from disgruntled parties. A priority for the post-election government will be addressing India’s trading relations with partners in the region and beyond. Tensions with Pakistan could escalate at any time, but the formation of a new government may create an opening for bilateral talks.

Caste unrest will help Modi's party retain Dalit vote

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Caste Politics

Subject Caste politics in India. Significance In a sign of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ability to shape the political agenda, the National Democratic Alliance's candidate Ram Nath Kovind was sworn in as India's 14th president on July 25. With attacks on Dalits (low castes) in the north Indian heartlands of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) surging, the nomination of a Dalit for the presidency was designed to strengthen the party's appeal to the community ahead of state elections. Impacts Support for the main opposition Congress party among Dalits will decline in Gujarat. Beef and leather exports will fall despite the Supreme Court suspending the ban on trading cattle for slaughter. Anti-Muslim violence may increase across the country.

Modi could rely more on Hindu nationalism in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Interest ◽  
Electronic Voting ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Unfair Trade ◽  
Do So

Subject Modi's likely approach to the 2019 elections. Significance India’s general election is likely to occur in April or May 2019. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept to power in May 2014 on promises to transform India’s society and economy. In seeking to preserve his position, Modi has begun to emphasise protectionism and national interest. Impacts India will raise tariff barriers on Chinese goods and may do so on US ones, pushing back on what it regards as unfair trade policies. Low-level political violence between different religious and caste communities is likely in the lead-up to the election. The poll is likely to see contention over the credibility of electronic voting machines.

Outlook for upcoming polls is mixed for Modi’s party

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Market Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Public Consciousness

Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) governs in Assam with the support of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners, while another NDA party rules in Tamil Nadu. In Puducherry, a governing coalition led by India’s main opposition Congress party recently collapsed. Impacts Congress infighting over leadership will intensify, weakening the party further. The Citizenship (Amendment) Act will again stir debate nationally, having somewhat disappeared from public consciousness amid the pandemic. Modi’s recent liberal market reforms, which have prompted protests in some parts of India, are unlikely to be much of a factor in the polls.

Indian farmers will push government further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movement ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced earlier in the month that the reforms would be revoked. The laws sparked a major protest movement among farmers, who maintained that the legislation favoured corporate players over them. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) probably feared that the agitation would hurt it in some of the state elections due early next year. Impacts Modi’s government may in the medium term try to revive aspects of the repealed legislation in a piecemeal way. The BJP will step up appeals to Hindu nationalism in the upcoming state polls, hoping to shore up support from its base. Any crackdown by security forces on ongoing farmer protests would work against Modi’s party in the elections.

Modi's stance on religious violence faces major tests

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Religious Violence ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Political Career ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Religious Plurality ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Subject Outlook for communal politics and conflict. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces growing pressure to distance himself from the Hindu nationalist hard-right, with which he has been associated throughout his political career. This pressure has emerged both externally and internally: while US President Barack Obama during his official visit to India underlined the necessity of preserving India's religious plurality, the heavy defeat of Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Delhi state elections was seen partly as the electorate's rejection of Hindu nationalism. Impacts Delhi's ties with Dhaka could worsen if election campaigning in Assam results in acute anti-migrant/anti-Muslim violence. A major episode of communal violence would damage India's ties with Middle Eastern and Western partners. Hindu nationalist groups will pose a risk to Modi's policies on land and subsidies.

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