Business braces for uncertainty as Brexit date nears

Significance This leaves businesses uncertain about the future UK-EU trading agreement and preparing for the worst. Even assuming the exit terms are settled before the country’s scheduled March 29 departure from the EU, much will remain undecided. Impacts Technological solutions to the Irish border gridlock are possible, but not immediately. Conservative party splits will deepen regardless of the final Brexit deal. The UK economy will lose near term potential economic growth as a result of Brexit.

Subject The government's preferred timetable for the UK referendum on EU membership. Significance The EU membership referendum will be a major event in both EU and UK political and commercial life. Prime Minister David Cameron's official position is that the poll could take place any time before end-2017. He is less concerned about the likely outcome of the referendum, which he is confident will produce an 'in' result, than about achieving a margin in favour of membership that decisively settles the question and minimises the damage to the Conservative Party arising from the process. Impacts The most likely referendum date is September 15, 2016. This timetable would make the key renegotiation period the first half of 2016, when the sympathetic Dutch government chairs the EU Council. The German government would also prefer the UK referendum to be dealt with relatively quickly.


Author(s):  
Ferrarini Guido ◽  
Macchiavello Eugenia

This chapter explores the policy and regulatory issues generated by investment-based crowdfunding in Europe. Firstly, it argues that crowdfunding raises serious investor protection concerns, particularly when directed to retail investors. As governments try to stimulate innovation and the formation of new enterprises, a trade-off is created between investor protection and economic growth. The laws of the EU and its Member States try to solve this trade-off in different ways, as the chapter shows with reference to MiFID and the laws of the UK, France, Italy, Spain and Germany. Secondly, it shows that MiFID II, while enhancing investor protection and furthering harmonization, does not create all the conditions needed for a pan-European crowdfunding market. At the same time, MiFID II narrows the potential for exemptions under which some Member States have adopted special regimes for crowdfunding, therefore restricting the scope for an enabling approach to investment-based crowdfunding at national level.


Significance Cameron is gauging his counterparts' positions before presenting his reform agenda at the June 25-26 EU summit. He seeks the other EU states' support for a package of reforms that will enable him to claim that he has secured a better deal for the United Kingdom in the EU, and thus campaign for an 'in' vote in the EU membership referendum he has promised by end-2017. Cameron is seeking to build backing for some reforms that would apply across the EU, rather than only seek special treatment for the United Kingdom. However, some of the reforms he has mooted are unacceptable to many other EU states. Impacts The greatest impact of the reforms that Cameron secures could be on the scale of the split in the Conservative Party over EU membership. Some of Cameron's reforms could bring important changes across the bloc, as well as set precedents for other member states. The UK renegotiation will generate bargaining between member states that will affect their negotiation of other issues.


2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 45-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Sahr ◽  
Mark Compton ◽  
Alexandria Carr ◽  
Guy Wilkes ◽  
Alexander Behrens

Purpose To explain the impact for financial services firms of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union (EU) and to assess the possible options for conducting cross-border financial services between the UK and EU in the future. Key to this is the likely loss of the EU “passport” for financial services that allows a firm licensed in one EU state to offer its services freely throughout all EU states. Design/methodology/approach Explains the process by which the UK will leave the EU and negotiate future trading arrangements; the key considerations for financial services firms doing cross-border business in the EU; the various options for cross-border business in the future; and the key steps financial services firms should be taking to respond to the vote to leave the EU. Findings Many issues still remain uncertain and are unlikely to be resolved for a number of years, but long lead times to implement solutions mean that firms should be considering their options now. Practical implications Firms should be evaluating their current reliance on EU passports and the alternative options that might be suited to their business, such as the “quasi-passports” available under certain specific EU laws or relocation of part or all of their business. Originality/value Legal analysis and practical guidance concerning an unprecedented political development with profound impacts on financial services in Europe, by experts with long-term experience of EU negotiations and financial services gained from working for the British government, regulators and regulated firms.


Significance As many as a dozen lockdown parties are now alleged to have been held at Downing Street, significantly damaging Johnson’s support among the public and his Conservative Party. His position as party leader and prime minister is gravely threatened. Impacts Johnson’s domestic troubles, coupled with rising economic concerns, increase the chance of an agreement with the EU over Northern Ireland. Disillusionment with Johnson, opposition to net-zero and culture wars open the door for Nigel Farage’s Reform Party to revive its appeal. Rising inflation threatens to undermine consumer confidence and slow the economic recovery over the coming year.


Significance However, the recovery has also led to supply bottlenecks and labour shortages, which have resulted in inflationary pressures. While most of the pandemic-related impacts on the economy are expected to be transitory, longer-term challenges such as export performance, net migration and productivity will weigh on economic growth.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 242-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek Walker ◽  
Beverley Lloyd-Walker

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore recent literature on the impact of changes in the workplace environment and projected trends through to the year 2030. This allows the authors to identify and discuss what key trends are changing the nature of project organising work. The authors aim to identify what knowledge and which skills, attributes and experiences will be most likely valued and needed in 2030. Design/methodology/approach This paper is essentially a reflective review and is explorative in nature. The authors focus on several recent reports published in the UK and Australia that discuss the way that the future workforce will adapt and prepare for radical changes in the workplace environment. The authors focus on project organising work and the changing workplace knowledge, skills, attributes and experience (KSAE) needs of those working in project teams in 2030 and beyond. The authors draw upon existing KSAE literature including findings from a study undertaken into the KSAEs of project alliance managers working in a highly collaborative form of project delivery. Findings The analysis suggests that there is good and bad news about project workers prospects in 2030. The good news is that for those working in non-routine roles their work will be more interesting and rewarding than is the case for today. The bad news is that for workers in routine work roles, they will be replaced by advanced digital technology. Research limitations/implications Few, if any, papers published in the project organising literature speculate about what this discipline may look like or what KSAEs will be valued and needed. Practical implications This paper opens up a debate about how project management/project organising work will be undertaken in future and what skills and expertise will be required. It also prompts project managers to think about how they will craft their careers in 2030 in response to expected work environment demands. This will have professional and learning implications. Social implications The issue of the future workplace environment is highly relevant to the social context. Originality/value This paper is about a projected future some 12 years onward from today. It bridges a gap in any future debate about how project organising jobs may change and how they will be delivered in the 2030s.


2020 ◽  
pp. 002201832097753
Author(s):  
Gemma Davies ◽  
Paul Arnell

The Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom have a long, close and difficult history. The most recent phase of which dates from 1998 and the conclusion of the Good Friday Agreement. Since 1921, however, there has been unique practice between Ireland and the UK as regards the transfer of accused and convicted persons from one to the other. Indeed, there has been a special and close relationship between the two in that regard; albeit one not without difficulties. In recent times EU Justice and Home Affairs measures and the Good Friday Agreement have supplemented and strengthened the relationship. These include, since January 2004, the European Arrest Warrant (EAW). The EAW has been particularly important in streamlining the extradition process between the Ireland and the UK. This phase of history and co-operation is coming to an end. The UK’s membership of the EU has now ceased, and a transition period during which the UK remains part of the EAW will end on 31st December 2020. The extradition relationship between the two is therefore facing a considerable challenge. There are several options open to Ireland, the UK and the EU as a replacement. Time, political will and the interests of third states, however, may well stand in the way of the conclusion of an agreement that optimally serves the interests of all parties and criminal justice. This paper considers the origins of extradition between the UK and Ireland and the alternative methods of extradition open to the UK and Ireland after Brexit. Consideration is given to the likely operation of a Norway-Iceland style agreement and whether such an agreement will be in place by the end of the transition and, if it was, whether its terms are likely to be sufficient for the needs of Ireland and the UK. The possibility of a bilateral arrangement on extradition between Ireland and the UK is also explored. Underlying the discussion is the critical point that the future extradition relationship must retain its ‘special’ characteristics, and therefore maintain the trust and good will that has developed over the years and given rise to an effective extradition relationship between the two countries. In other words, the lessons of history must be remembered.


Author(s):  
Michael Dougan

Following a national referendum on 23 June 2016, the UK announced its intention to end its decades-long membership of the EU. That decision initiated a process of complex negotiations, governed by Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, with a view to making the arrangements required for an ‘orderly Brexit’. This book explores the UK’s departure from the EU from a legal perspective. As well as analysing the various constitutional principles relevant to ‘EU withdrawal law’, and detailing the main issues and problems arising during the Brexit process itself, the book provides a critical analysis of the final EU–UK Withdrawal Agreement—including dedicated chapters on the future protection of citizens’ rights, the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and the prospects for future EU–UK relations in fields such as trade and security.


Author(s):  
Anthony Salamone

As Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson was a prominent campaigner for a ‘Remain’ vote in the European Union referendum of June 2016. Following the 2017 general election, meanwhile, Davidson repositioned herself as someone who could – aided by 13 Scottish Tory MPs in the House of Commons – influence the Brexit negotiations and nudge the UK Conservative Party towards a ‘soft’ rather than ‘hard’ deal with the EU. This chapter considers the impact of Brexit on the Scottish Conservatives during the leadership of Ruth Davidson in four dimensions: Brexit’s distinct Scottish political context, its electoral consequences, the conduct of Brexit within the UK, and the Brexit negotiations themselves. It concludes with reflections on the future prospects for the Scottish party in light of all four dimensions.


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