Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

Subject Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2019. Significance GDP growth slowed in the first quarter of 2019. Despite sluggish growth, macroeconomic stability persists. Government spending is restrained by a prudent fiscal policy framework, the state's borrowing requirements are minimal and inflation remains at an historically low level.

The fiscal policy and the dynamic of the economic cycle

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-241
Author(s):  
Huthaifa Alqaralleh
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Unobserved Component ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Unobserved Component Model

PurposeThis study seeks to determine in some detail whether the state of the economic cycle matters in considering the effects of fiscal policy shocks on output.Design/methodology/approachThis issue leads us to two primary objectives: to define the economic cycle measuring the gap with the unobserved component model with a smoother trend, which can be used efficiently to generate gap measures for use in real-time decision-making and avoids the criticisms of measures based on contentious structural models; and to look empirically at the fiscal policy stance over the phases of the cycle, bearing in mind the short time variation and smooth change between the cycle regimes.FindingsThis paper provides evidence that the fiscal policy rule seems to operate with varied coefficients depending on whether the transition variable is below or above the estimated threshold value.Originality/valueThe asymmetric response gives policymakers the impetus to reconsider the fiscal policy framework because of specific circumstances, such as shocks that can dramatically affect the nominal features of the business cycle. Put differently, stable and moderate fiscal policies would at least not contribute to cyclical fluctuations, and therefore would be better than what we have typically experienced. There would, therefore, seem to be a distinct need to address the properties of economic cycles under different fiscal policy rules.

Thai junta's 2015 growth forecast to prove optimistic

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Military ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject 2015 economic outlook. Significance According to the Ministry of Finance's Fiscal Policy Office, GDP growth slowed to between 1.2% and 1.7% in 2014 from 2.9% in 2013. Data released by the Bank of Thailand on December 30 suggest that the final figure is likely to be at the lower end of the range. Recovery in the fourth quarter was modest (at an estimated 1.0%) against 0.6% in the third. The military-backed government forecasts 4.1% GDP growth this year, assuming more tourists, higher domestic demand, export growth and rapid implementation of infrastructure plans. Impacts Sluggish growth will intensify calls for elections, but the junta will not relent, especially until the royal transition has been secured. The 2014 coup may not be the last; this will maintain the long-term contractual risks for investors. Political instability could return by end-2015, dampening household consumption.

Chile spending commitments may hamper fiscal prudence

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Fiscal Prudence

Subject The draft 2019 budget. Significance The government budget for 2019, announced by President Sebastian Pinera on September 29, is the most austere in almost a decade. It aims to restore Chile’s long-standing reputation for exemplary fiscal conduct, which in recent years has been undermined by increases in government spending that outstrip GDP growth, and the resulting increase in borrowing. Impacts Credit rating agencies have indicated that the draft budget is in line with their concerns about Chile’s rising borrowing requirement. The ongoing decline in fiscal revenues from copper underlines Chile’s need to diversify its economy. The government will be hard-pressed to meet its fiscal goals if, as current forecasts suggest, GDP growth weakens through to 2020.

Russian arms procurement faces fiscal constraints

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Constraints ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Russian Military

Subject Russian defence spending and procurement. Significance The recent shift in government spending towards social and economic development is being achieved without upsetting strict budgetary discipline, but defence and security expenditure is declining as a share of GDP. Limited procurement plans make life more challenging for the defence industry than for nearly a decade. Impacts Defence firms will find it hard to export weapon types that the Russian military does not want. The GDP growth boost of 2018 is likely to give way to growth of around 1.0-1.5% in 2019, as tax rises dampen economic activity. Higher-than-projected oil prices might allow some surplus budgetary funds to be used to top up planned defence spending commitments.

Prospects for emerging economies to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Trade Policy ◽  
Policy Shift

Subject Prospects for emerging economies to end-2019. Significance US trade policy is hardening and while the direction remains uncertain, a sustained softening seems unlikely. Monetary policy is shifting towards easing in many emerging markets (EMs) and some are expanding fiscal policy. However, the policy shift will not compensate for weaker world trade and EM GDP growth is expected to slow from 4.5% last year, already a three-year low, to closer to the 4.3% seen in 2015 or even weaker.

Policy Design and Macroeconomic Stability in Europe

2005 ◽  
Vol 191 ◽  
pp. 94-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
E. Philip Davis
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Single Market ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Financial Market Stability ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

Macroeconomic policy in Europe is now oriented to creating a stable environment in which the scope for output growth is enhanced. However, we maintain that not all dimensions of a stability-oriented policy framework appear to be in place. Fiscal policy rules and arrangements have been much discussed, but their design is not yet settled. The Single Market Programme has transformed competition in Europe, but its full implications for macroeconomic stability, especially its implications for financial market stability in combination with the Single Currency, have not yet been fully appreciated by policymakers. Future pension issues in the context of population ageing will pose a major challenge. We discuss the design of fiscal policy in (a Single Market) Europe, looking at fiscal pacts and the need for Europe-wide financial regulation in an integrated financial market as well as pension reform aspects.

ECB to stay dovish despite ending its QE programme

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Financial Fragility ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East European ◽  
European Central ◽  
Asset Backed Securities

Significance Fears of Europe's financial fragility are rising after the ECB ended its quantitative easing (QE) programme in December. The programme -- which lasted almost four years -- bought over 2.5 trillion euros (2.9 trillion dollars) in government, corporate and covered bonds, as well as asset-backed securities. Impacts GDP growth may pick up in the fourth quarter after idiosyncratic factors hit July-September, but GDP will struggle to build momentum. When the next cyclical downturn hits, fiscal policy will have to help monetary policy in supporting the economy. An ECB rate hike in 2019 would allow Central-East European central banks to hike too, curbing inflationary pressures.

Italy’s Conte will not fully implement fiscal plan

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Borrowing Costs ◽  
Full Implementation

Significance The new government’s investiture vote in parliament on June 5-6 was preceded by massive volatility in financial markets. Its fiscal plan appears unsustainable and its views on EU relations are unclear. Impacts Italy’s recovery is vulnerable to a slowdown in global GDP growth and this could be be exacerbated by trade turbulence. An aggressively expansionary fiscal policy will put Italy’s sovereign rating under pressure. Full implementation of the government’s promises would trigger higher borrowing costs.

South Korea’s economy will suffer less than most

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Conflicts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

Significance The impact exceeds that of the 2008-09 global financial crisis, when GDP grew 0.8% in 2009. Much hinges on how fast massive stimulus measures kick in at home, and how major export markets fare. Impacts The service sector, hitherto a weaker driver of GDP growth than exports, will get a relative boost. Political conflicts will intensify as to whether unprecedented government spending is appropriately targeted, or fiscally sustainable. Moon’s government will use COVID-19 as cover for measures it was committed to in any case, and as an excuse if performance falls short.

Government spending multipliers over business cycle

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naser Yenus Nuru
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Spending Shocks

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show the asymmetric effects of government spending shocks for South Africa over the period 1960Q1–2014Q2. Design/methodology/approach A threshold vector autoregressive model that allows parameters to switch according to whether a threshold variable crosses an estimated threshold is employed to address the objective of this paper. The threshold value is determined endogenously using Hansen (1996) test. Generalized impulse responses introduced by Koop et al. (1996) are used to study the effects of government spending shocks on growth depending on their size, sign and timing with respect to the economic cycle. The author also uses a Cholesky decomposition identification scheme in order to identify discretionary government spending shocks in the non-linear model. Findings The empirical findings support the state-dependent effects of fiscal policy. In particular, the effects of 1 or 2 standard deviations expansionary or contractionary government spending shock on output are very small both on impact and in the long run; and a bit larger in downturns but has only a very limited effect or no effect in times of expansion. This result gives support to the evidence in the recent literature that fiscal policy in developing countries is overwhelmingly procyclical. Originality/value It adds to the scarce empirical fiscal literature of the South African economy in particular and developing economies in general by allowing non-linearities to estimate the effect of government spending shocks over economic cycle.

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