Prospects for a close EU-UK trade deal are not good

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Limited Period ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK-EU trade talks. Significance The United Kingdom will leave the EU on January 31, 2020, but will abide by EU rules as part of the transition period, which runs to December 31, 2020. During this limited period of time, London and Brussels will seek to negotiate a permanent trading relationship. While the transition deadline can be extended, the UK government has committed not to seek an extension. Impacts The impact of no trade deal or a 'thin' one may force the UK government to increase taxes in order to meet spending pledges. UK financial services will rely on an equivalence deal with the EU; London hopes to agree this by mid-2020. The EU’s future trade policy will focus on having stronger sanction powers as well as legal ones for those that unfairly undercut EU firms.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

EU-UK Brexit is unlikely to be stopped

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Ongoing Debate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance This comes after the Telegraph reported last week that Soros had donated 400,000 pounds to the group. There is an ongoing debate as to whether the United Kingdom will in fact leave the EU. Central to it is the question of whether the UK government can unilaterally revoke its decision to trigger Article 50 in March 2017. Impacts Voters would be less likely to support the revocation of Article 50 if the Council imposed conditions that made membership less attractive. Revoking Article 50 and remaining in the EU would reduce damage to the UK economy. If Article 50 is revocable, Eurosceptic governments could be tempted to use the prospect of triggering it as leverage in EU negotiations.

Disarray will cloud start of EU-UK Brexit talks

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Political Turmoil ◽  
Implementing Strategies ◽  
The Eu

Significance The process has been plunged into further uncertainty by the outcome of the June 8 UK general election, which has sparked renewed debate about what kind of Brexit the United Kingdom wants and what kind of future economic relationship with the EU it should seek to negotiate. Impacts The UK government’s weakness is a cause for concern elsewhere in the EU, raising fears that it may not be able to compromise on key issues. Many businesses will begin implementing strategies for dealing with Brexit early next year, before knowing the outcome of the negotiations. Pressure for a lengthy transition period will continue to build. The political turmoil and slowing economic growth in the United Kingdom may increase support for EU membership elsewhere in the bloc.

Brexit will have mixed impact on the Caribbean

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Decision To Leave ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject The impact of Brexit on the English-speaking Caribbean. Significance The Caribbean is a region with strong links to the United Kingdom that will be affected significantly by the UK voters' decision to leave the EU ('Brexit'). The region includes sovereign and non-sovereign countries and both groups will be affected, albeit in different ways. Impacts Caribbean concerns will not be a priority for either the United Kingdom or the EU. Uncertainty may further undermine already weak regional economies. CARICOM will need a new trade accord with the United Kingdom, its main export market.

Divergence from EU on AI rules may hurt UK firms

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance Freed from the EU’s control, London insists, the United Kingdom could become a hub for new technologies. To this end, besides setting out some other objectives, it has prepared a ten-year strategy to foster innovation in artificial intelligence (AI) systems. Impacts UK plans to adapt GDPR to favour business and innovation will be opposed by consumer and privacy activists, possibly in courts. Regulatory divergence with the EU in critical sectors such as the digital economy will hurt UK-EU ties. The UK government may struggle to benefit from partnerships developed in the EU-US Trade and Technology Council.

India-UK free trade deal is likely around 2019

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Decision To Leave ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
The Eu

Subject Outlook for a possible free trade deal between India and the United Kingdom post-Brexit. Significance UK business minister Sajid Javid's first overseas visit following the UK decision to leave the EU ('Brexit') was to India on July 8. Both countries have long eyed closer economic ties, and Brexit will likely provide a catalyst. Impacts Prospects for growth are strongest in areas including IT, financial services, pharmaceuticals, textiles and light engineering. The United Kingdom could support India in future international trade negotiations. In time, the India-UK relationship may become diplomatically stronger than the India-US relationship.

UK-EU trade negotiations to be contentious

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Free Trade Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Beneficial Impact ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject Outlook for UK-EU trade deals. Significance Following the 'Brexit' referendum, a statement from EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom that the United Kingdom must negotiate its EU exit before concluding a trade deal alters assessments of future trading conditions across the English Channel. Even if the United Kingdom were to retain access to the single market or negotiate a free trade area with the EU, UK-EU trade is likely to be governed solely by WTO rules for many years. Impacts Given the UK government's lack of trade negotiators, the private sector could shape the country's negotiating positions. For UK exporters with domestic suppliers, the impact of tariffs on EU shipments will be mitigated by the pound's depreciation. However, the beneficial impact of the latter is reduced for UK exporters that source from abroad.

UK government is preparing for an early election

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance Johnson's cabinet overhaul is the largest in decades, replacing 17 cabinet ministers from the previous government mostly with individuals who support Johnson’s hard-line stance on Brexit. Impacts Brussels could offer London a ‘Northern Ireland only’ backstop, but this will be rejected by the UK government. The government will likely pass legislation to protect EU citizens’ rights in the United Kingdom if there is a no-deal Brexit. The EU will only grant another extension if a deal is almost agreed, or if there is a UK general election or second Brexit referendum.

ECJ bugbear undermines London’s negotiating position

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Regulatory Standards ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Sticking Point ◽  
The Eu

Significance The role for the ECJ after Brexit will be a key sticking point as negotiations between London and Brussels progress. Impacts Fragmentation in regulatory standards would make it much harder for the United Kingdom to trade with the EU. The dissonant position adopted by the UK government increases the risk of delay, and ultimately of failing to secure a deal. Unless London settles on stable guidance for interpretation of EU law post-Brexit, uncertainty for firms, investors and citizens will rise.

Brexit will pose risks to UK defence

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
The United States ◽  
Leadership Roles ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject Post-Brexit defence policy. Significance Much of the discussion surrounding the impact of Brexit on defence and security has focused on its effects on the EU. However, with the EU’s recent defence initiatives and London’s lack of a clear position on the future of EU-UK security cooperation, the United Kingdom could face greater risks than the EU. Impacts UK-EU security and defence cooperation will probably remain largely unchanged until the transition period ends in December 2020. EU defence cooperation will continue to develop, regardless of input from the United Kingdom. Uncertainty over Brexit negotiations will make London more reluctant to take on leadership roles in joint EU projects. The United States, France, Germany, Japan and Australia are likely to be London’s main countries of focus for strengthening defence ties.

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