Thai government infighting may hurt economic recovery

Significance Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha remains under pressure to carry out a cabinet reshuffle to contain government infighting. At the same time, the government is trying to spur a recovery from the economic slump caused by the COVID-19 crisis. Impacts The departure of technocratic ministers from the cabinet would set back investor confidence. A COVID-19 state of emergency could be extended beyond end-July, even though Thailand appears to have the pandemic under control. The government will continue to direct legal cases against opposition leaders to hamper their parties.

Subject Thai government's clampdown on the opposition and struggle with various crises. Significance The Constitutional Court last week dissolved the opposition Future Forward Party for receiving an illegal loan from its leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit. Future Forward had in recent months emerged as a vigorous opponent of the military-backed government. Army Chief Apirat Kongsompong and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha may be relieved to be rid of the party, but there is unlikely to be any let-up in opposition pressure as the administration grapples with crises relating to military corruption, water shortage and infectious disease. Impacts The military will try to help the government manage an approaching drought and the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus. The central bank will step up currency management to keep Thai exports as competitive as possible amid the economic downturn. Erstwhile Future Forward MPs may form a new opposition party.


Subject Thailand's long-delayed election. Significance More than 40 new political parties have been registered in Thailand since March 2, and established parties will be allowed to begin registering members on April 1, as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) begin a process of preparing for a long-delayed general election. The 2017 constitution initiated by the NCPO allows the (to be re-established) House of Representatives to select an ‘outsider’ as prime minister if it is unable to decide on a party-affiliated figure. Impacts Persistent election delays will not affect Thailand’s current economic recovery. Despite mounting political pressure on the government to commit to a poll, anti-government protests will not grow. Improving relations with the United States could insulate the government from EU pressure on delayed elections.


Subject Problems facing the Thai government. Significance Thailand’s government, led by a party with ties to the junta that ruled until July, is facing political and economic headwinds as it tries to establish civilian rule. The king is consolidating his authority, political opponents are pushing back on the ruling coalition and exports are weakening, raising quandaries for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. Impacts A worsening trade outlook will prompt the government to step up efforts to secure a free trade agreement with the EU. Thailand and the United States will take time to strengthen bilateral ties, nominally mended when Prayut visited Washington in 2017. The army units under the king’s direct control could provide cover for rival factions to Prayut’s in the event of another military coup.


Subject Prospects for India in the second quarter. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suffered a major defeat in Delhi elections in February, denting the party's perception of electoral invincibility. This has cast a shadow over Modi's economic agenda just when investor pressure is mounting for 'big bang' reforms. Nonetheless, signs of economic recovery -- visible in the uptick in GDP growth, moderating inflation and strengthening balance of payments -- promise the government room for manoeuvre in the second quarter of 2015 (the first quarter of fiscal 2015-16).


Subject Political situation in Belgium. Significance The centre-right Belgian government coalition, led by Prime Minister Charles Michel, has pursued a reformist agenda since it came into power in 2014. However, this has been met with opposition from trade unions and the public. While the government has implemented some of its planned reforms, more work is required to reform the country’s welfare system and increase employment. Meanwhile, regional tensions between Flanders and Wallonia remain an issue. Impacts The modest economic recovery will probably continue, with GDP growth forecast to reach 1.4% this year. The government's reforms are expected to lead to the creation of 120,000 jobs in 2017. Although the public deficit is expected to be below 3% of GDP this year, the consolidation of public finances will remain a priority. Islamist terrorism continues to pose a threat and the country remains on high alert.


Significance The vote took place at the start of parliament’s first full sitting since Muhyiddin was appointed premier. The opposition cannot agree over whom they want to be prime minister instead of the incumbent. Impacts Proof of Muhyiddin’s majority will bolster investor confidence. As Malaysia establishes control over its COVID-19 outbreak, Muhyiddin’s popularity could benefit somewhat from the reopening of the economy. Early elections could hamper the government’s ability to manage economic recovery.


Significance COVID-19 is spreading at the fastest rate since the pandemic began, exceeding 20,000 new daily cases for the first time this month. The government has extended emergency measures into September. Impacts Business expansion, on hold for more than a year, is showing signs of life as machinery sales rebound. Semiconductor and other parts shortages will hold back expansion in the short run, but their effects will diminish over the coming year. Economic recovery and successful mass vaccination come too late for the unpopular Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who will soon be replaced.


Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masahiro Hosoda

Purpose This study aims to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic affected telework initiatives in Japanese companies and investigate the factors that affect telework based on the technology, organization and environment (TOE) model, through the analysis of published documents. Design/methodology/approach Document analysis was adopted. Documents were collected from English news articles in the Nikkei Asian Review and Nikkei Asia which cover Japan's economy, industries and markets. The results of surveys by the Persol Research Institute and Tokyo Chamber of Commerce and Industry were also provided to discuss factors promoting and hindering telework. Content analysis was adopted to analyse the documents. Findings COVID-19 had an unavoidable impact on the implementation of telework that the government had previously failed to instigate. Japanese listed companies tend to implement telework, whereas small- and medium-sized companies are struggling. The ratio of telework has been low even after the declaration of the state of emergency because there exist organizational, technological and environmental barriers to telework in Japan. Originality/value This study contributes to discussions on work style reform by focusing on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on telework. This research also gives new insight into operationalization of telework in organizations not only in Japan but also in other countries known for low rates of telework and inflexible work styles such as Korea.


Significance The government will appeal the rulings, which follow action by renewables firms. With constitutional battles over energy investments already unfolding, the future of Mexico’s energy framework has been thrown into turmoil. Impacts Increasing energy prices will probably push inflation above Banxico’s upper target limit of 4%. AMLO’s apparent disregard for international trade agreements will strain relations with the United States. AMLO’s pro-austerity fiscal stance could take a toll on his popularity.


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