Canada-US ties will see fewer irritants under Biden

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Keystone Xl ◽  
Keystone Xl Pipeline

Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.

US-Vietnam security ties may trump trade

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Business Community ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technology Transfers ◽  
Look Ahead ◽  
The Us ◽  
Vietnamese Diaspora

Subject US-Vietnam relations. Significance Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc met US President Donald Trump on May 31 in Washington, during a two-day visit in which he also conferred with the US business community and Vietnamese diaspora. Phuc’s visit is part of Hanoi’s plan to forge a relationship with the new US administration. The prime minister sought the continuance of the Obama-era US-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership and to look ahead to the APEC meeting in Da Nang in November, which Trump will attend. Impacts Even without the twelve-member TPP, Vietnam will improve its intellectual property and labour laws. Increased US security support may see more frictions over maritime issues between Beijing and a more confident Hanoi. Trump’s wish to protect US borders will cause Hanoi concern that Vietnamese student numbers in the United States will fall. If so, this could hit knowledge and technology transfers from the United States to Vietnam.

Israeli-US leader ties will be functional but fraught

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
West Bank ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Future War

Significance This also comes as indirect US nuclear talks with Iran resume in Vienna, despite concerted Israeli opposition. US President Joe Biden is in effect withdrawing the unconditional backing his predecessor Donald Trump gave Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Impacts The Gaza ceasefire will be fragile, with a significant chance of renewed hostilities in the short-to-medium term. The appointment of a new Mossad chief, David Barnea, may lower the profile of but will not materially change Israeli-US intelligence ties. The United States will further increase financial support to both Gaza and the West Bank. In a more serious possible future war against Hezbollah, Washington might not back a major Israeli military incursion into Lebanon.

New route could derail US Keystone XL pipeline

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Pipeline Project ◽  
Local Opposition ◽  
Keystone Xl ◽  
Keystone Xl Pipeline

Significance The Keystone XL extension is a major new proposed oil pipeline project, with implications for US-Canada trade (at a time of uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations), Canadian oil producers, and the global oil market. Its prospects suffered a blow in November when Nebraska state regulators rejected the pipeline builder TransCanada’s preferred route, opting instead for a lengthier path through the state. Impacts Nebraska’s economy could lose out on millions of dollars in revenue if Keystone XL does not go ahead. US President Donald Trump could be hurt politically if a project that he so publicly backed falls through. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces provincial and local opposition to new pipeline projects.

Canada’s Trudeau will welcome Biden’s US win

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Wall Street ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Middle Power ◽  
The World ◽  
Keystone Xl

Significance Canada-US ties have seen some friction under President Donald Trump; Biden’s administration is an opportunity for calmer ties. The change of president in the United States will have implications for Canada’s economy, trade, environmental policy and national security, and could help bolster Canada as a global middle power. Impacts Bay Street (Canada’s Wall Street) will monitor Biden’s economic policy appointees closely. Trudeau’s government will lobby Biden to support the Keystone XL pipeline. Canada will support Washington on the world stage, including as Biden returns Washington to international bodies. Trudeau could call an early election in 2021, though cancellation of Keystone XL would limit his support in Alberta.

Spanish foreign policy will concern traditional allies

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government

Subject Spanish foreign policy. Significance Spain does not see itself replacing the United Kingdom as one of the ‘Big 3’ in driving EU policymaking and cooperation after Brexit. Instead, the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will seek to prioritise Spanish interests in the Mediterranean and on Brexit, and will become less preoccupied with EU cooperation and integration. Spain is seeking a more balanced and broader relationship with the United States, but there is tension over the political crisis in Venezuela and trade issues. Impacts Relations with the United States will become more difficult, especially if President Donald Trump is re-elected. Although Spain would like to shift its regional emphasis towards Asia, Venezuela and the coronavirus could nullify that ambition. Immigration is now a priority, as further illegal inflows would fuel support for the far-right Vox party.

Neither side is ready to step back in Georgian crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
National Movement ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

Japan joining Five Eyes would mean tough compromises

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Issue ◽  
The United States ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Potential Contribution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Policy Issue ◽  
Opening Up

Significance The possibility of Japan joining the alliance is now seriously discussed in Tokyo and the capitals of the Five Eyes members -- the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Joining Five Eyes would signal Japan’s even deeper integration into US alliance structures, regionally and globally, and raise expectations for Japan to act as a fuller ally in all sorts of contingencies. Impacts Japan’s greatest potential contribution to allies is probably in signals and imagery intelligence, especially vis-a-vis China. The prime minister will avoid opening up a controversial foreign policy issue so close to a general election; his successor may be bolder. Japan’s partners still run a risk of leaks due to Japan’s lag in cybersecurity and institutional arrangements, but this is decreasing.

Turkish society will become more Islamic under AKP

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle Class ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Business Partners ◽  
Turkish Constitution ◽  
Turkish Society

Subject The future of secularism in of Turkey. Significance The speaker of the Grand National Assembly, Ismail Kahraman, provoked uproar on April 25 when he called for secularism to be dropped from the proposed (but as yet unpublished) new constitution. There were instant protests and demonstrations by middle-class opponents and, perhaps more surprisingly, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Both rejected the idea that secularism -- which has featured in the Turkish constitution since 1928 -- should be discarded. Impacts Society's pro-Western orientation is being slowly eroded, and latent hostility to the United States and United Kingdom is growing. Turkey's main secular universities -- Bosphorus (Bogazici) and Middle East Technical -- are under increasing pressure to change. Government preference for Middle Eastern, especially Saudi and Qatari, business partners and investors will continue.

Ties with India depend on Iran's normalisation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Missed Opportunities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Trade Relationships ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
Economic Ties

Significance The deal was one of a number of key agreements that Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed during his visit to Tehran on May 23. The visit aimed to advance relations following the lifting of sanctions on Iran in January, and a decade of missed opportunities and rising suspicion in relations between Tehran and Delhi. Impacts Expanding energy and trade ties will support Iran's efforts to diversify its economy and trade relationships. Building economic ties with India will help the normalisation of Tehran's international relations. India will limit security and defence cooperation with Iran in order to avoid alienating Israel, Gulf states and the United States.

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