Global growth may edge downwards in the rest of 2021

Headline INTERNATIONAL: Growth may edge down through 2021

Headline INTERNATIONAL: Growth will be weak, with few hotspots


Significance Comparisons with two formerly fast-growing Asian neighbours, Japan and South Korea, suggest that China will continue to slow for another decade. Analysis of global growth trends over 50 years points to a strong force of ‘regression to the mean’, meaning that continued high-speed growth is statistically unlikely. Impacts Continued Chinese economic slowing will reduce global demand for resources such as iron ore and coal. Achieving productivity growth will require deepening reforms to increase the role of the market, the private sector and competition. World Bank economists emphasise that imposing stricter financial discipline is a key step to enhancing market-based productivity gains.


2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 601-619
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Abiodun Oladapo ◽  
Roshayani Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Manal Mohammed Hamoudah

Purpose The perception of different stakeholder groups on governance dimensions, such as transparency, accountability and ethics, in the Islamic banking sector is examined, given the global growth of Islamic banking and its purpose of enhancing economic growth and development through Shari’ah-compliant instruments. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether the stakeholders in Nigeria perceive each dimension differently. Design/methodology/approach The data for the study were collected using a survey questionnaire. Simple random sampling was used to select the respondents. The respondents are customers, employees and shareholders of the Islamic banking sector in Nigeria. Findings Findings show that ethics is highly perceived as the key dimension in governance for the Islamic banking sector, whilst a positive and significant relationship is observed between the variables. Based on the variance analysis, there were statistically significant differences in perception between the stakeholders groups in the Islamic banking system. However, similar positive perceptions are accorded towards the overall governance dimensions across stakeholder groups namely, customers, employees and shareholders. Originality/value This study will extend the current body of knowledge in the field of Islamic finance by providing insights into policy makers, operators and regulators of the Islamic banking sector in Nigeria on the prospective stakeholders’ level of perception of the governance dimension, which could form part of the solutions to many contemporary issues in the banking system. This contribution is important, considering the clear relationship among governance dimensions which should be viewed in light of Islamic ideals.


2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Surajit Ghosh Dastidar

Learning outcomes To understand social entrepreneurship and a social entrepreneur; to identify a social problem and develop a business idea; to understand the theory of entrepreneurial opportunity recognition; and to understand microfinance and its impact in the lives of the poor. Case overview/synopsis The case traces the journey of its founder Chandra Shekhar Ghosh from being a small time entrepreneur in microfinance to being the owner of a universal bank named Bandhan. Bandhan bank started its operations on August 23, 2015 with 501 branches, 2022 service center and 50 ATMs across 24 states. It had 14.3 million accounts, around 105 billion loan book and 19,500 employees. The founder of Bandhan bank, Chandra Shekhar Ghosh, an Ashoka fellow had won numerous awards such as Entrepreneur with Social Impact Award by Forbes (2014), Entrepreneur of the Year by Economic Times (2014), Skoch Financial Inclusion Award (2011), Entrepreneur of the Year Award (2014) by AIMA to name a few. In 2014, Bandhan was also recognized as Global Growth Company by World Economic Forum. Complexity academic level The case is suitable for analysis in a MBA level course on social entrepreneurship. Supplementary materials Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email [email protected] to request teaching notes. Subject code CSS 3: Entrepreneurship.


Significance Risks to its central scenario are more balanced and less skewed to the downside. Global imbalances are shrinking, partly thanks to low oil prices. This is boosting disposable income in oil-importing countries at the expense of oil-exporting ones. The dollar's strength is also helping rebalance the global economy, although the euro-area's growing current account surplus is contentious. Impacts Disinflation has become widespread, especially within advanced economies, but should be temporary. Low energy prices are estimated to add between 0.5-1.0 percentage points to global growth by 2016. A revision of guidelines and rules is required to reduce the risk of another financial crisis.


Significance The slowing down of Kazakhstan's economy continues against a background of slow global growth, the turbulent economic situation in Russia and low oil prices. Lower-than-projected oil prices will reduce budget revenues and forecasts; on January 16, Astana said it was revising its budgets for 2015-17 to mirror an average oil price of 50 dollars/barrel, as current budgets were based on 80 dollars/barrel. The blow will be softened by substantial reserves, which are expected to be used to stimulate the economy. Dwindling demand for commodities will negatively affect the profitability of Kazakhstan's major producers. The cumulative spillover from the Russian-Ukrainian crisis is substantial, although manageable at present. Impacts Further devaluation of the tenge would undermine public confidence in Kazakhstan's national currency. Increased dollarisation of Kazakhstan's economy will make regulation difficult by monetary policy. Ruble depreciation will put pressure on the tenge and promote replacement of domestic products with Russian imports.


Subject Prospects for the global economy to end-2016. Significance Global growth could accelerate in the second half of 2016. Some emerging economies are facing better conditions thanks to the weaker dollar and some rebound in commodity prices, while others remain in recession. US growth slowed in the first quarter, while Japan's government just avoided a relapse into recession. Euro-area growth is robust compared to its recent trends, but cannot be relied upon to provide much support for the rest of the global economy.


Subject Correlation between oil prices, equity markets and global growth. Significance Weak global growth and volatile equity markets in early 2016 illustrate how the real economy and distressed investors are struggling with rapid changes in such key parameters as the new energy and commodity price regime. This is because the 'losers' have to react quickly, plunging economies into recession before the 'gainers' generate any positive effects. These asymmetries, along with disappointing data, are spooking stock markets into a broad-based sell-off. After a nearly 10% fall in global equities between end-December and mid-February wiped as much as 6-7 trillion dollars off wealth, markets have rallied, especially in the United States, where key indices have recouped losses to trade at levels last seen at end-2015. Impacts A recovery in global growth prospects could emerge by mid-2016, stabilising commodity prices and underpinning gains in equity markets. Distressed sales of assets should abate and have less influence on markets. Easing fears over China will help markets rebound after the panic attack in early 2016. The consumer benefits of low energy and food costs have disappointed, but there could be higher spending throughout 2016.


Subject Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter. Significance Three threats are on the horizon. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might raise interest rates this year. This move, though well signalled, may have negative repercussions, especially in emerging markets (EMs). Secondly, China's economy, a key to global growth, is slowing and its financial markets are exceptionally volatile. These factors have already elicited policy interventions such as renminbi depreciation and further rate cuts by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Finally, there is no apparent end in sight to weak global demand and the fall in commodities prices that has left commodity-exporting countries struggling with precipitous drops in revenue.


Subject Global waste management. Significance The World Bank estimates that by 2025 cities will be creating 2.2 billion tonnes of solid waste annually, nearly double the 1.3 billion tonnes produced in 2012. Systems to manage vast quantities of urban waste already account for more than 20% of many cities' budgets, and this will rise. Yet despite the cost, the profile of waste management lags other utilities, hampering the ability to attract political attention and financing to build, improve and maintain effective systems. Impacts Manufacturers and product designers will increasingly be tasked with preventing the creation of waste, not merely reducing its footprint. Integrating waste and resource management into the education curricula will foster generational behaviour change. Waste-pickers collect, sort and recycle up to 20% of developing countries waste; policies will increasingly support informal workers. Fee structures to manage waste will move to point-of-purchase rather than using municipal taxes to raise fees at the point-of-collection.


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