Congo-Brazzaville-IMF agreement may raise false hopes

Headline CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE: IMF agreement may raise false hopes

Subject Outlook for Angola's relations with its creditors. Significance On July 31 the government entered into an agreement with Japan involving a 200-million-dollar concessional loan to support energy projects. It is the latest in a series of 'lifeline' deals concluded with donors and creditors in an attempt to cushion the economic reverberations of the oil price shock, particularly its implications for meeting debt repayments and development goals. Impacts The agreement signed with Congo-Brazzaville on July 31 to jointly exploit the Lianzi oil field could reduce border tensions. If protests increase, the government may escalate its civil society clampdown, eg through peremptory arrests of activists. New diamond projects will boost production, though recent 'blood diamond' allegations will raise reputation risks for investors. Increased diamond sales (up 35% in the first quarter year-on-year) will augment state revenues, but be insufficient to absorb the oil shock.


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Headline CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE: Outreach may help lighten debt load


Significance With the government’s finances and governance under renewed scrutiny as a result of a recently agreed IMF bailout, two Congolese companies on August 10 announced a sizable first discovery in the Cuvette basin area. While initial reports may have exaggerated the find’s potential, the announcement highlights some of the challenges facing the country’s oil and gas sector. Impacts News of the find may boost exploration in northern Congo and its neighbours (Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic). The discovery's location in an environmentally sensitive area will likely pose reputational problems for potential development partners. The IMF deal should bring with it greater scrutiny of state finances, potentially improving governance and reassuring investors. Local political actors will struggle for influence amid tougher anti-corruption and reporting requirements for international oil companies.


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